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Topic: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

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MaximumSam

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1372 on: February 22, 2024, 09:25:21 PM »
The problem is that they are likely losing Xavier Johnson, Trey Galloway, and Anothony Leal to graduation (unless they have a Covid year still, but that will only happen if they are happy) and Ware to the draft.  Coupled with the fact that they are only bringing in one recruit (McNeely, a power forward), and they are just really thin, especially in the back court (and that's assuming nobody transfers).
If Woodson stays, he is going to have to knock it out the park in transfer portal players, otherwise, next year could be worse than this year.
I know I'm advocating for him to get fired, but I do want to defend him a bit. If (and it's a big if), they can return their guys, a starting lineup of Cupps, Gunn, Mgbako, Reneau, and Ware is pretty danged good. Of the guys leaving, only Galloway has played in more than 40% of minutes. Xavier Johnson has been bad and hurt, and Leal has been mostly a nonfactor. Keep your guys, add a few depth pieces, and they should be a good team that is back in the tourney next season. McNeely isn't some jobber - he's a five star prospect.

My main issue is Indiana is perhaps the biggest name in the conference and shouldn't settle for just a guy as head coach, and Woodson seems like a good solid coach, but not one who elevates the program. If Holtmann wasn't special for Ohio State, Woodson is really not special for Indiana. Also, he says weird stuff like he didn't think Jalen Hood-Schifino was an NBA prospect. If I sitting on my couch looking at Google know that JHS is likely to go pro after a year, his head coach should know that too.

grillrat

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1373 on: February 22, 2024, 10:50:40 PM »
Ware is still a first rounder in most mock drafts I have seen.  He gone.

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1374 on: February 22, 2024, 11:17:00 PM »
Rutgers is a pain in the ass, but also a generation behind.  This just feels like a real high floor, low ceiling way to play.  They could certainly reach the 2001 Elite 8

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1375 on: February 23, 2024, 12:18:56 AM »
Over in Women's BB Indiana beat Iowa and Ohio State won tonight. All but the Buckeyes, Hoosiers, and Hawkeyes are mathematically eliminated from the league title race. 

The top of the standings and remaining games are:

  • 14-1 Ohio State vsUMD, vsM, atIowa 
  • 13-3 Indiana atNU, vsUMD
  • 12-3 Iowa vsIL, atMN, vstOSU
Ohio State clinches at least a share of the title with one more win. The Buckeyes clinch an outright title with two more wins.

Indiana should win out while Ohio State and Iowa should each win their two games before they play each other. If that happens the big Ohio State at Iowa clash to end the season will be somewhat anticlimactic as Ohio State will have already clinched the outright title.


MaximumSam

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1376 on: February 23, 2024, 06:54:36 AM »
Ware is still a first rounder in most mock drafts I have seen.  He gone.
I typically look at The Athletic, which is pretty gutted but still has great coverage of NBA prospects. I hadn't seen them mention him, but I checked and they did list him as 43rd in their mock draft. No first round guarantee but even getting mentioned means it is pretty likely he leaves.

bayareabadger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1377 on: February 23, 2024, 07:46:26 AM »
Rutgers is a pain in the ass, but also a generation behind.  This just feels like a real high floor, low ceiling way to play.  They could certainly reach the 2001 Elite 8
I mean, it feels like getting talent there is always going to be pretty difficult. So just being an unusual pain in the ass is probably close to as good as they can be. So if they can make the tournament at a somewhat decent clip, it’s more than enough to exceed expectations.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1378 on: February 23, 2024, 07:57:47 AM »
2024 recruiting ranks for the B1G


U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1379 on: February 23, 2024, 08:25:09 AM »
Projections update:
Review of tiers:

  • Purdue, Illinois
  • Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State
  • Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland
  • Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State
  • Michigan
Upsets so far:

Based on the above, the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
  • 16-4/27-4 Purdue
  • 14-6/23-8 Illinois
  • 13-7/23-8 Nebraska (wins tie with UW based on record against PU, no game in W. Lafayette)
  • 13-7/21-10 Wisconsin
  • 12-8/21-10 Northwestern (wins tie with MSU based on record against PU, MSU does not host Boilers)
  • 12-8/20-11 Michigan State
  • 10-10/19-12 Minnesota
  • 9-11/15-16 Penn State (wins tie with IA and RU based on H2H2H over RU and record against IL over IA)
  • 9-11/17-14 Iowa (wins over RU based on H2H2H)
  • 9-11/17-14 Rutgers (loses tie with PSU and IA based on H2H2H of 0-2)
  • 9-12/16-15 Maryland
  • 6-14/14-17 Indiana (wins tie with tOSU based on H2H season sweep)
  • 6-14/16-15 Ohio State
  • 3-17/8-23 Michigan

Thus, the match-ups for the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock)
  • #11 Maryland vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
  • #12 Indiana vs #13 Ohio State, 630
Thursday, March 14 (BTN):
  • #5 Northwestern vs IU/tOSU, 230
  • #6 Michigan State vs UMD/M, 9pm
  • #7 Minnesota vs #10 Rutgers, 630
  • #8 Penn State vs #9 Iowa, noon
Friday, March 15 (BTN):
  • #1 Purdue vs PSU/IA, noon
  • #2 Illinois vs MN/RU, 630
  • #3 Nebraska vs MSU/UMD/M, 9pm
  • #4 Wisconsin vs NU/IU/tOSU, 230
Saturday, March 16 (CBS):
  • PU/PSU/IA vs UW/NU/IU/tOSU, 1pm
  • IL/MN/RU vs UNL/MSU/UMD/M, 330
Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):
  • PU/PSU/IA/UW/NU/IU/tOSU vs IL/MN/RU/UNL/MSU/UMD/M, 330


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1380 on: February 23, 2024, 09:31:11 AM »
You probably don't, but if you want to see how the sausage gets made, here is a breakdown of the projections spreadsheet:

What you see here is:

  • Team is the team in question - top line is Purdue
  • noAway are the three teams that team does not visit this year - for Purdue this is Michigan State, Minnesota, and Penn State
  • noHome are the three teams that team does not host this year - for Purdue this is Maryland, Nebraska, and Ohio State
  • RR-W is the projected number of wins on a full, double-round-robin, 26-game schedule - for Purdue this is 21
  • RR-L is the projected number of losses on a full, double-round-robin, 26-game schedule - for Purdue this is 5
  • miss-W is the projected wins not played - for Purdue this is 5, all the missed games except at MSU
  • miss-L is the projected losses not played - for Purdue this is 1, the trip to East Lansing that the Boilers aren't making
  • RR% is the projected winning percentage on a full, double-round-robin, 26-game schedule - for Purdue this is 0.808
  • Proj% is the projected winning percentage on the actual schedule - for Purdue this is 0.800
  • Diff is the difference between the previous two columns.  Ie, this is a measure of how much the schedule helps (positive numbers) or hurts (negative numbers) the team in question.  For Purdue the schedule is roughly a wash.  The biggest benefactor of the scheduling gods is Minnesota while the biggest victim of the scheduling gods is Maryland.  

Next:

What you see here is:

  • Team is still the team in question - top line is Purdue
  • +Var is positive upsets - for Purdue they have one, the win in Madison
  • -Var is negative upsets - for Purdue they have one, the loss in Columbus
  • Var is the sum of the previous two columns - for Purdue this is zero as their one positive and one negative upset cancel each other out
  • Conf-W is the projected conference wins after accounting for everything.  Projected wins on a double-round-robin, less projected wins not played, plus upset wins, less upset losses.  For Purdue this is 16.  
  • Conf-L is the projected conference losses after accounting for everything.  Projected losses on a double round robin, less projected losses not played less upset wins plus upset losses.  For Purdue this is 4.  
  • OOC-W is Out of Conference wins - for Purdue this is 11
  • OOC-L is Out of Conference losses - for Purdue this is zero
  • ProjT-W is projected total wins which is projected conference wins plus OOC wins - for Purdue this is 27
  • ProjT-L is projected total losses which is projected conference losses plus OOC losses - for Purdue this is 4
  • Chk is a column that compares the calculated projections (prior to this) to the sum of the individual game projections which are right of this
  • ProjC-W and ProjC-L are the two far right columns here.  They are sums of projections of individual games that are then compared to the calculated projections to catch any mistakes that I made in concocting this enormous thing.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1381 on: February 23, 2024, 10:37:14 AM »
As I see it, in terms of tournament prospects there are three groups here with Nebraska kinda straddling the line between group-2 and group-3:
  • PU/M/UW/MSU:  These teams play schedules that stand out for being TOUGH.  That will help on Selection Sunday. 
  • IU/RU/IA/IL/NU/tOSU/PSU/UMD and maybe UNL:  These schedules are "non-descript".  They aren't impressively good nor embarrassingly bad.  SoS will be more-or-less a non-factor on Selection Sunday. 
  • Maybe UNL and definitely MN:  These schedules are bad and will be a liability come Selection Sunday.
Let's talk Tournament, who is a lock, who could only make it by winning the B1G Tournament, and for all the others, what do they need to do.

The above is from a post a few days ago where I listed each B1G team's SoS rank per KenPom. My thinking is that those in group-1 will get the benefit of the doubt while those in group-3 will need to be better than the average team. The bulk of the league falls in the middle where their schedules are neither a definitive help nor a definitive hindrance.

24-3/13-3 Purdue is a lock. Even if they lost out they'd be 24-8 on Selection Sunday and that would be enough.

19-7/10-5 Illinois is close to a lock but IMHO, they aren't quite there yet. If they lost out they'd be 19-13 on Selection Sunday and that *MIGHT* get them in but it might not. One or maybe two more wins does it for the Illini.

18-9/10-6 Wisconsin isn't a lock yet but they are close as well. Note from above that Wisconsin is one of the tough SoS teams that will get the benefit of the doubt. If they lost out they'd be 18-14 on Selection Sunday and that *MIGHT* get them in but it might not. One or maybe two more wins does it for the Badgers.

19-8/10-6 Northwestern is close as well. Same situation as Illinois, they need one or maybe two more wins.

17-10/9-7 Michigan State isn't there yet because if they lost out they'd be 17-15 on Selection Sunday and that probably isn't enough even with their schedule.  That said, with MSU's schedule 18-14 might be enough and 19-13 almost certainly would be so one or maybe two more wins does it for the Spartans.

19-8/9-7 Nebraska needs two or three more wins. Their schedule is notably weak so they need a little more than IL/NU and a lot more than MSU/UW/PU. Losing out would put them at 19-13 on Selection Sunday and I don't think that is enough with their schedule. Two more wins does it for the Cornhuskers.

17-9/8-7 Minnesota has work to do. Their SoS is by far the worst in the league so they will need a better record than the others. I think that three more regular season wins would do it for the Gophers but if they hit the BTT at 19-12/10-10 as expected they'll need at least one win in the BTT.

16-11/8-8 Iowa is running out of time but the recent wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State helped immensely. IMHO, they are in if they finish the regular season 3-1 but anything less than that will require an impressive performance in Minneapolis.

13-14/7-9 Penn State probably needs to win the BTT because if they don't they'll finish with at least 15 losses. They might get in if they won their last four regular season games then made it to the B1GCG because at that point they'd be 20-15 but anything less than that wouldn't be enough.

14-12/6-9 Rutgers is running out of time as well. They probably need to go 4-1 in their last five games and win a couple in Minneapolis.

14-12/6-9 Indiana, same as Rutgers.

14-13/6-10 Maryland probably needs to win their last four and win a couple in Minneapolis.

15-12/5-11 Ohio State is running out of time as well. If they won every game until the B1GCG that would put them at 22-13 on Selection Sunday and that would probably be enough. At most they could afford one more regular season loss. It could be problematic that Diebler's aggressive style is exhausting which probably limits their chances of winning three games in three days in the BTT like they did last year.

8-19/3-13 Michigan clearly cannot get in without winning the BTT.

LetsGoPeay

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1382 on: February 23, 2024, 11:52:33 AM »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1383 on: February 23, 2024, 11:55:39 AM »
This just makes me laugh.


https://twitter.com/themoplady/status/1760838975206432893?s=42
It is all good since Indiana won but yeah, that is some ridiculous star officiating. 

grillrat

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1384 on: February 23, 2024, 12:21:34 PM »
I typically look at The Athletic, which is pretty gutted but still has great coverage of NBA prospects. I hadn't seen them mention him, but I checked and they did list him as 43rd in their mock draft. No first round guarantee but even getting mentioned means it is pretty likely he leaves.
In fairness, the info I was going off of was about a week to two weeks old.  Just checked again, and Ware seems to have dropped to more of a late first rounder to mid second in the 10 or so sites I checked.  So it's possible he comes back.  I'd put it about 75/25 that he leaves as of now, but it will probably depend upon how he finishes the year.

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1385 on: February 23, 2024, 04:57:37 PM »
2/23 resume bracket update

NCAA
MIDWEST
  • #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Merrimack/Norfolk State
  • #8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Mississippi State
  • #5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Seton Hall/Boise State
  • #4 Dayton vs. #13 McNeese State
  • #3 Kansas vs. #14 Akron
  • #6 Florida vs. #11 Virginia
  • #7 South Carolina vs. #10 Wake Forest
  • #2 Marquette vs. #15 Oakland

SOUTH
  • #1 Houston vs. #16 Southern/South Dakota State
  • #8 NORTHWESTERN vs. #9 Colorado State
  • #5 BYU vs. #12 James Madison
  • #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 Samford
  • #3 North Carolina vs. #14 High Point
  • #6 TCU vs. #11 Providence
  • #7 Utah State vs. #10 Indiana State
  • #2 Alabama vs. #15 Morehead State

EAST
  • #1 Connecticut vs. #16 Fairfield
  • #8 Florida Atlantic vs. #9 Texas
  • #5 WISCONSIN vs. #12 Princeton
  • #4 Baylor vs. #13 Vermont
  • #3 Duke vs. #14 UNC Wilmington
  • #6 Washington State vs. #11 Saint Mary's
  • #7 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #10 New Mexico
  • #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Colgate

WEST
  • #1 Iowa State vs. #16 Lipscomb
  • #8 NEBRASKA vs. #9 Ole Miss
  • #5 San Diego State vs. #12 Grand Canyon
  • #4 Creighton vs. #13 UC Irvine
  • #3 Auburn vs. #14 Louisiana Tech
  • #6 Clemson vs. #11 Nevada/Butler
  • #7 Kentucky vs. #10 Gonzaga
  • #2 Arizona vs. #15 Weber State

NIT
PHILADELPHIA
  • #1 Villanova vs. #8 Quinnipiac
  • #4 Memphis vs. #5 MINNESOTA
  • #3 Syracuse vs. #6 San Francisco
  • #2 Texas A&M vs. #7 Yale

SALT LAKE CITY
  • #1 Utah vs. #8 Grambling
  • #4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Cornell
  • #3 St. John's vs. #6 RUTGERS
  • #2 Cincinnati vs. #7 LSU

BOULDER
  • #1 Colorado vs. #8 Eastern Kentucky
  • #4 Kansas State vs. #5 Richmond
  • #3 SMU vs. #6 NC State
  • #2 IOWA vs. #7 Charleston

EUGENE
  • #1 Oregon vs. #8 Sam Houston State
  • #4 Xavier vs. #5 Appalachian State
  • #3 Virginia Tech vs. #6 South Florida
  • #2 Drake vs. #7 Eastern Washington

Changes:
Moved up from NIT to NCAA
  • Providence
  • Butler
  • Boise State

Dropped from NCAA to NIT
  • Drake
  • Cincinnati
  • Texas A&M

Moved into NIT
  • Rutgers
  • LSU

Dropped out of NIT
  • Maryland
  • Ohio State

Big Ten
  • #1 Purdue = held
  • #4 Illinois = dropped from #3
  • #5 Wisconsin = held
  • #7 Michigan State = dropped from #6
  • #8 Northwestern = dropped from #7
  • #8 Nebraska = moved up from #10
  • NIT#2 Iowa = moved up from NIT#4
  • NIT#5 Minnesota = held
  • NIT#6 Rutgers = moved into NIT
  • Maryland = dropped out of NIT
  • Ohio State = dropped out of NIT
  • Indiana = n/a
  • Michigan = n/a
  • Penn State = n/a

 

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