2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Frustrating personal note:
Randy Ayers' back-to-back league titles were in my sophomore and junior years in HS.  My junior year in HS he took the Buckeyes to the E8 and that would have been a F4 except that the Buckeyes E8 opponent almost literally had an NBA payroll (Guess who?).  My point being, the Buckeyes were awesome right before I got to Ohio State.  O'Brien's first season was the year after I graduated and they went to the F4 the year after that.  So they had a league title and E8 two years before I got there and they had an F4 two years after I left.  

The four years I was there:

• 13-16/6-12 no postseason
• 6-22/2-16 no postseason
• 10-17/3-15 no postseason
• 10-17/5-13 no postseason

As if that wasn't bad enough, they also had:

He also had one player shoot out another player's tires, while a third player drove the getaway car.

Another player got caught stealing stereos out of cars in a student lot and another one got busted for a drive-off (back when gas wasn't all pay-at-pump, he filled up and left) and various other embarrassments.  

They won 16 league games in my whole four years there.  Two and three years prior they won 15 EACH YEAR.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Back to this season and the other 13 teams in the league:
The projections have held up well this week so no changes so far.  Tonight we have:
Northwestern +4.5 at Rutgers, 630 BTN:
Vegas and our tiers both like Rutgers but I'm not so sure.  The Wildcats are assembling a really solid season.  They should easily make the tournament and we project them to finish 21-10/12-8.  Their next two games (@RU, @IU) are winnable road games that could be the difference between a solid season and a great season.  

The Scarlet Knights are 13-10/5-7 so they aren't eliminated yet but time is rapidly running out.  We project them to finish 17-14/9-11 and that is with a win in this game.  They already need to steal an upset or two so this is close to a "must-win" for Rutgers.  

Minnesota +16.5 at Purdue, 830 BTN:
For Purdue this is simply about clinching a league title and getting the #1 overall seed.  They are two games up with seven to go so they are closing in on another B1G Title.  

Minnesota projects to be likely in at 19-12/10-10 but that doesn't leave them a lot of room for error.  Also their NET is pretty shaky (#85) and they only have one Tier-1 win so they a lacking in "signature" wins.  Waltzing out of Mackey with a W would fix those issues but that is obviously easier said than done which is why the wiseguys in the desert are giving them almost 20 points.  

[MaximumSam]

A new name appearing on a couple places that I hadn't heard before. Niko Medved at Colorado State.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Scoonie

[grillrat]

Back to this season and the other 13 teams in the league:
The projections have held up well this week so no changes so far.  Tonight we have:
Northwestern +4.5 at Rutgers, 630 BTN:
Vegas and our tiers both like Rutgers but I'm not so sure.  The Wildcats are assembling a really solid season.  They should easily make the tournament and we project them to finish 21-10/12-8.  Their next two games (@RU, @IU) are winnable road games that could be the difference between a solid season and a great season. 

The Scarlet Knights are 13-10/5-7 so they aren't eliminated yet but time is rapidly running out.  We project them to finish 17-14/9-11 and that is with a win in this game.  They already need to steal an upset or two so this is close to a "must-win" for Rutgers. 

Big question is how much the loss of Berry is going to affect NW.  They were able to get by PSU and Nebraska at home without him, but they were already so-so on the road, so I suspect this is a game that Rutgers rolls in.

[medinabuckeye1]

Big question is how much the loss of Berry is going to affect NW.  They were able to get by PSU and Nebraska at home without him, but they were already so-so on the road, so I suspect this is a game that Rutgers rolls in.

I'm glad you pointed that out.  In all the excitement around my team to be honest I completely forgot about it.  

Depending on how big of an impact it has, Northwestern's presumed spot in the Tournament could be in serious jeopardy.  They are currently 17-7/8-5 and Lunardi has them solidly in (not among last four in nor last four byes) as a #9 seed.  

However, their NET is only #56 and KenPom has them at #47.  Per the NCAA/NET they are:

• 17-7 overall
• 2-5 on the road
• 2-1 neutral
• 13-1 home
• 4-5 in Tier-1 games
• 3-1 in Tier-2 games
• 4-0 in Tier-3 games
• 6-1 in Tier-4 games

Their 4-5 in Tier-1 games is really solid.  For comparison:

• 8-2 Purdue
• 6-5 Wisconsin
• 3-7 Michigan State
• 3-7 Michigan
• 3-5 Illinois
• 3-5 Nebraska
• 2-6 Maryland
• 1-8 Rutgers
• 1-8 Indiana
• 1-6 Penn State
• 1-5 Ohio State
• 1-4 Minnesota
• 0-6 Iowa

OTOH, the Tier-4 loss is REALLY bad.  The only other B1G teams with a Tier-4 loss are PSU and Michigan.  

Northwestern's remaining schedule is:

• @ Rutgers tonight
• @ Indiana 2/18
• Vs Michigan 2/22
• @ Maryland 2/28
• Vs Iowa 3/2
• @ Michigan State 3/6
• Vs Minnesota 3/9

With the possible exception of the game in East Lansing none of those look impossible but the flip side is that with the possible exception of the home game against Michigan none of those look like locks either.  

Northwestern doesn't need much more, but they do have work to do IMHO.  Losing out would put them at 17-14/8-12 heading into the B1G Tournament.  Not only is that absolutely NOT in, they might not even be able to get in from there without winning the BTT.  

[medinabuckeye1]

NCAA Tournament status for B1G teams.  

First a quick review.  @ELA and I have typically utilized an extremely literal interpretation of the terms.  Thus:

• Lock: I define a lock as a team that could lose every remaining scheduled game, get the worst possible BTT opponent, lose their BTT opener, and would STILL make the Tournament.  
• Should be in:  These are teams that are currently generally viewed as Tournament teams and will most likely make the tournament but these teams could play their way out if they tanked.  
• Work to do:  These are teams that are generally viewed as on or close to the bubble or below but not so bad as to be hopeless for an at-large bid.  They could play their way in with varying degrees of likelihood.  
• Need to win BTT:  These are teams that are, as a practical matter, eliminated from the At-Large race.  By that I mean that even if the won every remaining scheduled game and did not lose again until the B1GCG they would still miss the tournament.  

Lunardi/NET (Lunardi for the teams he lists, everyone else is by NET):

• #1 seed Purdue 
• #4 seeds Wisconsin and Illinois
• #9 seeds Michigan State and Northwestern
• #10 seed Nebraska
• #65 Iowa 14-10/6-7
• #71 Ohio State 14-11/4-10
• #81 Minnesota 15-8/6-6
• #86 Rutgers 13-10/5-7
• #93 Penn State 12-12/6-7
• #100 Indiana 14-10/6-7
• #108 Michigan 8-17/3-11

Locks:
Purdue.  Even if they lost out they'd still finish 22-10/11-9.  They'd be in.  

Should be in:
Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State.  All three are trending in and should get there.  

Work to do:
Northwestern:  I've included them here specifically because of the injury.  If they crater, they are in trouble.  
Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Rutgers, Penn State, Indiana.  Penn State and Ohio State with 12 and 11 losses respectively are awfully close to joining Michigan but they still have a theoretical shot because if they didn't lose again until the B1GCG, they'd be good enough to get an at-large bid.  

Need to win BTT:
Michigan.  The Wolverines would finish the regular season 14-17 even if they won out.  Then, even if their BTT journey started on Wednesday and they didn't lose until the B1GCG, they'd still only be 18-18.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Big question is how much the loss of Berry is going to affect NW.  They were able to get by PSU and Nebraska at home without him, but they were already so-so on the road, so I suspect this is a game that Rutgers rolls in.

Well you were right about Rutgers winning. 

[medinabuckeye1]

There were no upsets this week so the projections are unchanged.  Final standings/BTT seeds (tiebreakers and BTT match-ups are unchanged from prior post):

• 17-3/28-3 PU
• 15-5/24-7 IL
• 13-7/21-10 UW
• 13-7/23-8 UNL
• 13-7/21-10 MSU
• 12-8/21-10 NU
• 10-10/19-12 MN
• 9-11/17-14 RU
• 8-12/16-15 UMD
• 8-12/14-17 PSU
• 8-12/16-15 IA
• 6-14/14-17 IU
• 5-15/15-16 tOSU
• 3-17/8-23 M

[FearlessF]

#4  --- 13-7/23-8 UNL

Gotta be shittin me

#4???

[MaximumSam]

The way Caitlin Clark broke the record was ridiculous. I went upstairs to find something for my kid during the starting lineups, and when I came back down she already scored 5. Then she hit the most baller three one can do.


https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1758297654042431767

[FearlessF]

she's pretty gooood

[medinabuckeye1]

Curious how the team reacts on Sunday.  Will they come out inspired against Purdue and keep it close / win, or will they just not put any effort at all and just go through the motions.

Expecting the former, hoping for the latter.  Probably depends who the interim coach is and whether the team likes him or not.

I'll be watching. For those unaware, the Jake Diebler* as interim coach era begins Sunday afternoon in Columbus with a visit from the B1G leading and nationally #2 ranked Purdue Boilermakers. This game is at 1pm and will be broadcast on CBS. I'm hoping for the opposite result from what @grillrat is hoping for but I completely agree with his assessment, anything could happen and I have no idea what to expect.

*Jake Diebler:
Ohio State interim coach Jake Diebler is the older brother of Jon Diebler who was a star at Ohio State under Thad Matta from 2007-2011. If you are having trouble remembering Jon, picture a 6-6 skinny kid in an Ohio State jersey draining a three because he did a LOT of that.

Jake played college ball at Valpo and coached at Valpo, Ohio State, and Vanderbilt under Homer Drew and Bryce Drew, Thad Matta, and Bryce Drew before returning to Ohio State under Holtmann.

He comes from a BB Coaching family. Father Keith is a HS coach in Ohio as is older brother Jeremiah while younger brother Jon is currently recruiting coordinator at Butler.

[medinabuckeye1]

#4  --- 13-7/23-8 UNL

Gotta be shittin me

#4???

The middle of the league is incredibly fluid right now. 

Nebraska is currently in sixth place at 7-7:

• One game better they'd be tied with NU and MSU for fourth.
• One game worse they'd be tied with UMD, PSU, and IA for ninth through twelfth.