header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

 (Read 121653 times)

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #770 on: January 11, 2024, 09:52:55 AM »
Agreed
I went ahead and made the two changes listed above:
  • Tier-1 was eliminated (actually, as @FearlessF pointed out, Tier-5 was eliminated and everybody moved up one except Purdue who stayed in Tier-1)
  • Northwestern moved up one

So pending group review and tonight's results, the tentative tiers are now:
  • Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State
  • Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa
  • Minnesota, Ohio State, Rutgers
  • Indiana, Penn State, Maryland, Michigan
That gets us down to just four total upsets (in 30 games so far) and puts all teams within +/-1.  One of the upsets is MSU's home loss to Wisconsin and the other three involve Michigan.  As I see it that is just a function of Izzo's typical shaky starts that turn into great teams in March and the fact that Michigan is just a weird wildcard right now.  

@boilerbanger , @grillrat , and @ELA all had MSU moving down a tier.  I don't believe that is necessary because moving NU up accomplished the same thing, their loss inn Evanston is no longer an upset.  They are in Champaign tonight, lets see how they look there and talk about it tomorrow, ok?

All of you also had Indiana moving up a tier.  Do you still feel that way?  They didn't look very good in Piscataway.  


@boilerbanger and @ELA had tOSU moving up a tier but with their home loss to UW, they need to stay where @grillrat and I had them.  

@boilerbanger and @grillrat have Iowa moving down a tier.  Since it is 2-2 on that one I'd like to wait and see how they look going forward.  

There was also a 2-2 split on Maryland with @grillrat and @ELA moving them up one.  Same as Iowa, since it is a 2-2 split lets just wait and see how they look going forward.  

boilerbanger

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 238
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #771 on: January 11, 2024, 10:06:28 AM »
@medinabuckeye1 I am good waiting for the Ill/MSU game tonight, I still feel MSU should be Tier 2 but let's hold.

You were correct on OSU I believe, I agree with where you have them now.

Indiana makes sense, I would move Rutgers down to Tier 4 based on the eye test, they are offensively challenged.

The interesting thing to me is how some teams are so much better at home than on the road, not sure how we account for this?  Maybe certain teams that have such a strong home court showing are likely to beat a team 1 & 2 tiers above them.  For example, if IU is Tier 4, at home I would expect them to beat Tier 2 teams, but I don't think this applies to all teams as certain teams are such Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to road vs home.  I put IU, Nebraska, NW in this category.

My thoughts (pending the outcome of the balance of the week)


  • Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue
  • Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State
  • Minnesota, Ohio State, Iowa
  • Indiana, Penn State, Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers


medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #772 on: January 11, 2024, 10:30:46 AM »

boilerbanger

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 238
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #773 on: January 11, 2024, 10:44:29 AM »
Apparently academic ineligibility only applies to road games.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/michigan-starting-point-guard-dug-mcdaniel-suspended-for-six-road-games-but-hes-allowed-to-play-at-home/amp/
Someone is going to need to explain this to me ... have we ever seen a suspension like this before, I cannot recall one.

Will he be wearing an ankle bracelet at home games?

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28947
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #774 on: January 11, 2024, 11:36:59 AM »
He can be at home games on the bench, not dressed, as a "guest" of the coaching staff.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

HailHailMSP

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 243
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #775 on: January 11, 2024, 11:58:00 AM »
Someone is going to need to explain this to me ... have we ever seen a suspension like this before, I cannot recall one.

Will he be wearing an ankle bracelet at home games?
Nothing Juwan does makes sense. He has vacillated himself between head and assistant with his Heart issues.The only thing I can think of is he is not academically ineligible, but skirting the lines with it. And road trips cause more of an academic challenge, so this allows him to catchup. Who knows....the program is in shambles.

boilerbanger

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 238
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #776 on: January 11, 2024, 12:21:08 PM »
He can be at home games on the bench, not dressed, as a "guest" of the coaching staff.
ok, I thought he could play in the home games.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 41514
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #777 on: January 11, 2024, 12:48:17 PM »
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8506
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #778 on: January 11, 2024, 01:27:22 PM »
Wow, I'm not even the one leading the charge anymore.

I'm trying to be optimistic about this season but given Holtmann's history it is obviously difficult to do that.

Pessimistic view:
It is worse than "Holtmann January". The Buckeyes only have one impressive win all season and that came the day before Thanksgiving. Also, that one has lost a lot of it's luster because Alabama has lost to every decent team they've played and dropped from the rankings.

Starting with the PSU loss on December 9 the Buckeyes have looked nothing like a Tournament team. Since then:
  • A loss to the worst team in the league: PSU
  • Two wins that sound good but really aren't: WVU, UCLA
  • A blowout win over a terrible team: NOLA
  • A close home win over a bad team: RU
  • A road loss to a not good team: IU
  • A home loss to a good (maybe great) team: UW

Optimistic view:
They are still 4-3 over that stretch and 12-4 overall. This is recoverable.

The next two games (@M, vsPSU) *SHOULD* be two of the easiest games in the league. IF they win those they'll be 14-4 overall and over .500 in the league.


As I said a while ago, these next two games are critical. If they win these two they'll be 14-4/4-3. Go roughly .500 from there they finish about 21-10/11-9 or 20-11/10-10 and probably make the tournament. If they lose the next two they'll fall to 12-6/2-5 and they are toast.
That Bama pessimism is a work of pessimistic art. I love it.

But I pulled up their resume and I think there’s another threat. Right now, Ohio State has a single win in the top two quadrants. Normally this would matter less, because putting together a solid showing in the Big Ten could feel that enough.

but the middle of the conference is looking weaker than usual. So that means 11-9 isn’t going to be quite as meaty as usual. Could leave them in a rough spot and leave a game like yesterday even more of a missed chance.

boilerbanger

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 238
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #779 on: January 11, 2024, 02:00:33 PM »

https://youtu.be/pLiTJFFbczc
Painter is not wrong ... if not addressed at some point there will an "incident"

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 41514
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #780 on: January 11, 2024, 02:03:37 PM »
Painter is a good guy and a smart guy.

I've always enjoyed him.  Even back in his playing days.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

boilerbanger

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 238
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #781 on: January 11, 2024, 02:23:39 PM »
Painter is a good guy and a smart guy.

I've always enjoyed him.  Even back in his playing days.
of all the coaches press conferences and interviews, Painter gives really good ones, he answers the questions and gives insight to the thought process.  He is a very intelligent basketball mind and shines when he is interviewed.  He is quite fun to listed to when he does radio stuff because will go off on tangents about basketball that you will learn something every time.

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #782 on: January 11, 2024, 04:09:50 PM »
That Bama pessimism is a work of pessimistic art. I love it.
FWIW:
I didn't mean to say that Bama was bad, just that they do not now appear to be what they appeared to be back when Ohio State beat them.  When Ohio State beat them they were #17 in the AP and 4-0.  Now they are 10-5, unranked in the AP.  They are still #5 in NET, and #8 in KenPom.  Their NET and KenPom rankings are pretty good because their losses have generally been to good teams, reasonably close, and mostly road or neutral but they are severely lacking in quality wins being only 1-5 in Q1 games.  *MAYBE* Bama is really a top-10 team as NET and KenPom say.  They have close losses to support that notion but not much in the way of wins.  
But I pulled up their resume and I think there’s another threat. Right now, Ohio State has a single win in the top two quadrants. Normally this would matter less, because putting together a solid showing in the Big Ten could feel that enough.

but the middle of the conference is looking weaker than usual. So that means 11-9 isn’t going to be quite as meaty as usual. Could leave them in a rough spot and leave a game like yesterday even more of a missed chance.
I noticed this when I looked at updated NET rankings.  It is mostly a product of UCLA and WVU not being what was expected when those games were scheduled.  When those games were scheduled the Ohio State Athletic Department probably figured they were scheduling Blue Blood UCLA and consistently very good WVU.  According to the current NET rankings UCLA is #176 and WVU is #193.  For context UCLA is a couple spots behind Utah Valley and just ahead of SJSU.  WVU is between California Baptist and ECU.  

From the NCAA's NET page, for Ohio State:
  • 12-4 record
  • 0-2 road - #100 IU and #131 PSU
  • 4-0 neutral - #5 Bama, #103 Santa Clara, #176 UCLA, #193 WVU
  • 8-2 home - The two losses were #12 UW and #39 aTm
  • 1-1 Q1 - #5 Bama-N is the win, #12UW-H is the loss
  • 0-3 Q2 - #39 aTm-H, #100 IU-A, #131 PSU-A
  • 6-0 Q3 
  • 5-0 Q4 

Ohio State is 11-0 in Q3 and Q4 games, those are games against:
  • #76+ at home
  • #101+ at neutral sites
  • #135+ away
The Buckeyes are 1-4 against everybody else.  

The aTm and UW losses aren't too bad but the IU loss is weak and the PSU loss is only barely Q2.  If PSU falls a few spots that will be a Q3 loss.  

The Bama win is a very good win based on NET but Ohio State's next best win is . . . Santa Clara?  

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #783 on: January 11, 2024, 10:22:10 PM »
We'll see if it holds up, but at least so far, MSU is looking like a Tier-1 team in Champagne-Urbana. 

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.