2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW, Beilein as an option seems to have some legs to it now.  We’ll see I guess.

https://www.si.com/college/westvirginia/basketball/john-beilein-nearly-returned-to-west-virginia

[medinabuckeye1]

Attendance is down because nobody is nor has any reason to be excited about the program and team and it is time to stop digging. 

I wanted to highlight this point.  Ultimately, this more than anything else will determine Holtmann's fate.  If Gene Smith can't move BB tickets, he'll have to make a move.  

That said, I think that Holtmann has dug himself a HUGE hole based on the performance of his teams.  Let's say they start out with 10 or 12 straight wins in the 2023/24 season.  Maybe you will be excited.  Are Ohio State fans going to be excited?  I doubt it.  I know I will not because I've seen this movie before, repeatedly:

2022/23:
Got as high as #23 in the Poll and were #24 at 10-3/2-0 after beating Northwestern on NYD.  Then dropped 14 of 15.  

2021/22:
Got as high as #13 in the Poll (early January) and were 10-3/4-1 then faded to unranked at seasons' end, lost BTT opener, lost NCAA second round game.  

2020/21:
Got as high as #4 in the Poll (mid February) and were 18-4/12-4 then lost four straight, got to the B1GCG, lost that, then lost to a #15 seed in the first round of the NCAA.  

2019/20:
Got as high as #2 in the Poll (late December) then lost six of seven to fall out of the rankings completely.  Finished a "meh" 21-10/11-9 before the B1G and NCAA Tournaments were cancelled.  

2018/19:
Got as high as #13 in the Poll (late December) then lost six of seven to fall out of the rankings completely.  Looked to be improving and got up to 16-7/6-6 before losing six of eight down the stretch to finish 18-13/8-12 and going 1-1 in both the B1G and NCCAA Tournaments.  

2017/18:
To be fair, this one really doesn't fit the pattern.  Instead, this team was pretty awful OOC.  They beat Stanford but Stanford ended up an NIT team and the Buckeyes lost to all four decent OOC opponents but won 13 of their first 14 league games to improve to 22-5/13-1 and #8 (mid February).  They were a lackluster 2-2 down the stretch then lost their B1G Tournament opener (still bothers me because I drove to NYC to see the tournament and my team lost in the first game).  Then they had a first weekend exit from the NCAA.  

Holtmann's teams have repeatedly looked good or possibly great early or toward the middle of the season then collapsed.  That makes it REALLY tough to generate excitement because if they are ranked even as high as the top-5 the history says it doesn't matter, they'll collapse and be done in the first weekend of the NCAA.  

[MaximumSam]

It's been a decade since anyone was excited to attend an OSU basketball game. I love them and it's more of a chore to go than anything. I don't think that will be a big deal - numbers have been declining for some time. Even a great team won't fix that.

[medinabuckeye1]

Torvik's early preseason
Torvik's early preseason projections:

• #6 Michigan State 
• #23 Purdue 
• #25 Indiana 
• #27 Wisconsin 
• #28 Northwestern 
• #37 Maryland 
• #41 Ohio State 
• #44 Iowa
• #46 Nebraska 
• #51 Illinois 
• #52 Rutgers 
• #65 Michigan 
• #122 Minnesota 
• #134 Penn State 

I *THINK* the above was based on the expectation that Edey would leave so I *THINK* his rather unexpected return should elevate the Boilermakers. 

Shrewsberry's departure from Penn State and the associated massive roster turnover (they lose a total of 10 guys from last year's roster) likely mean that the Nittany Lions will be atrocious this year as they work toward rebuilding. That is especially sad considering that they only have 10 NCAA appearances and that last season's appearance was their first in a dozen years.  Also, last season's first round NCAA win was Penn State's first NCAA win since their S16 run more than two decades ago.


Minnesota also saw a lot of roster turnover. 

My VERY early guess at tiers is:

• MSU, PU
• IU, UW, NU, UMD
• tOSU, IA, UNL, IL, RU, M
• MN, PSU

Those middle two tiers probably have too many teams but we'll have to see how they look to get that sorted out. Perhaps one of the second tier teams will challenge the top dogs and tier three likely needs split into two tiers but who knows which teams go in which one.

IMHO, this is optimistic for Ohio State. They may have the 41st best roster in the sport but translating that into the 41st best team would require at least an average coaching staff. Last year's tOSU team ranked close to dead last in KenPom's "luck" factor which is indicative of Ohio State's lack of an average staff. My guess is that Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, and Rutgers will all be better teams than Ohio State because they have better coaches. I do NOT think that Michigan has a better coach while MN and PSU's roster situations are so challenging that it probably wouldn't matter who coached those teams. 

That suggests that I *should* pick Ohio State to finish 11th in the league (ahead of only PSU, MN, and M) but I always assume that out of 14 teams, crazy things will happen with at least some of them so I'll say 9th place and on the NCAA Bubble.

[FearlessF]

Torvik's early preseason
Torvik's early preseason projections:

• #6 Michigan State
• #23 Purdue
• #25 Indiana
• #27 Wisconsin
• #28 Northwestern
• #37 Maryland
• #41 Ohio State
• #44 Iowa
• #46 Nebraska

only if the Mayor can figure out & run double and triple screens for Tominaga
I doubt it

[medinabuckeye1]

Dates haven't been announced but the league did release the H/A grid.  I've converted it to my format, here it is:

My takes, starting at the top:

• Purdue gets a big break not having to travel to East Lansing.  If they can beat the Spartans at home that will give them a big leg up AND the tiebreaker.  However, the rest of their schedule is bad news.  The other two road games that they avoid will probably prove to be the easiest possible road games so that hurts.  
• Michigan State misses what I am saying would be six projected wins which is bad but none are complete gimmies.  The likely "easiest" game the Spartans avoid is Nebraska at home and the other five are games that it wouldn't be too big of a stretch to see them losing.  
• Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland, and Wisconsin (my entire tier-2) each miss three projected home wins and three projected road losses.  
• Rutgers, Iowa, and Ohio State each miss what I would project as a home loss to MSU but that is possibly a "winnable" game.  
• Illinois, Michigan, and Nebraska each miss three projected home wins and three projected road losses.  
• For the bottom two I think that wins will be hard to come by.  

Reminder, the B1G Tournament is in Minneapolis this year.  

[medinabuckeye1]

That suggests that I *should* pick Ohio State to finish 11th in the league (ahead of only PSU, MN, and M) but I always assume that out of 14 teams, crazy things will happen with at least some of them so I'll say 9th place and on the NCAA Bubble.

I honestly did this BEFORE I ran the tiers but based on my projected tiers, I have Ohio State finishing 9-11 and tied for 7th/8th/9th in the league.  

[medinabuckeye1]

BTT seeds in the 20-game schedule era:


What it typically takes to get a particular seed:

The notes that got cut off are:

• I've assumed that MSU would have defeated MN if the two had played in 2023 as scheduled, and
• I've omitted 2021 due to wildly differing numbers of games played.  

Performance ranking of B1G programs within the B1G during the 20-game schedule era:

[bayareabadger]

only if the Mayor can figure out & run double and triple screens for Tominaga
I doubt it

Man I hate that kid. 

[FearlessF]

musta been a helluva sweet NIL deal to get him back for another season

I remember Bob Knight running screens for his shooters (rattle some teeth)

[medinabuckeye1]

Insanely WAY too early projected final standings/BTT seeds:


This is based on my projected tiers of:

• PU, MSU
• IU, NU, UMD, UW
• RU, IA, tOSU, IL, M, UNL
• PSU, MN

The projected final standings/BTT seeds would be:

• 16-4 Purdue
• 15-5 Michigan State
• 12-8 Indiana
• 12-8 Wisconsin
• 12-8 Maryland
• 12-8 Northwestern
• 9-11 Iowa
• 9-11 Rutgers
• 9-11 Ohio State
• 8-12 Illinois
• 8-12 Michigan
• 8-12 Nebraska
• 5-15 Minnesota
• 5-15 Penn State

The tiebreakers for the four-way tie at 12-8 are:

• H2H2H2H:  Indiana and Wisconsin are 3-2 because they do not travel to NU and UMD respectively.  Northwestern and Maryland are 2-3 because they do not host IU and UW respectively.  Thus, both sets of two move on to the next tiebreaker which is:
• Record against the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc:  Indiana and Maryland their ties because they do not travel to MSU and PU respectively. 

The tiebreakers for the three-way tie at 9-11 are:

• H2H2H:  Iowa wins because they do not travel to Columbus nor Piscataway.  RU and tOSU move on to:
• Record against the best team(s) then the next, etc:  Both project to be 0-season against the top-2 so we drop down to record against the four 12-8 teams.  Rutgers is 4-2 (do not visit Bloomington nor Evanston), Ohio State is 3-3 (do not visit College Park nor host NU). 

The tiebreaker for the three-way tie at 8-12 is:

• H2H2H:  Illinois wins because they do not travel to Lincoln (2-1), Nebraska loses because they do not host IL (1-2), and Michigan finishes in the middle at 2-2. 

The tiebreakers for the two-way tie at 5-15 are:

• H2H:  This does not help because they play H&H so we move to:
• Record against the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc:  Both project to go 0-season against the 12-8 and better teams so we drop to record against the three 9-11 teams (IA, RU, tOSU).  Both play IA and tOSU twice each (projected 2-2) but Minnesota does not visit and Penn State does not host RU so Minnesota wins at 3-2 while Penn State loses at 2-3. 

To the best of my knowledge the BTT schedule and TV coverage will not change from prior years.  If that is correct then the match-ups at the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN would be:
Wednesday, March 13, BTN:

• #11 Michigan vs #14 Penn State, 8:30PM
• #12 Nebraska vs #13 Minnesota, 6PM

Thursday, March 14, BTN:

• #5 Maryland vs UNL/MN, 2:30PM
• #6 Iowa vs M/PSU, 9PM
• #7 Northwestern vs #10 Illinois, 630PM
• #8 Rutgers vs #9 Ohio State, noon

Friday, March 15, CBS, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs RU/tOSU, noon
• #2 Michigan State vs NU/IL, 630PM
• #3 Indiana vs IA/M/PSU, 9PM
• #4 Wisconsin vs UMD/UNL/MN, 230PM

Saturday, March 16, CBS:

• PU/RU/tOSU vs UW/UMD/UNL/MN, 1PM
• MSU/NU/IL vs IU/IA/M/PSU, 330PM

Sunday, March 17, CBS:

• PU/RU/tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL/MN vs MSU/NU/IL/IU/IA/M/PSU, 330PM

[medinabuckeye1]

I know that the chances of things actually working out that way are so minimal as to be nearly nonexistent but wouldn't that be a fun tournament?  

If those projections held and assuming relatively normal OOC records you'd probably have six locks (the 12-8 and better teams), two that needed to win it all (PSU and MN at 5-15 each) then SIX bubble teams:

• #7 Iowa, 9-11
• #8 Rutgers 9-11
• #9 Ohio State 9-11
• #10 Illinois 8-12
• #11 Michigan 8-12
• #12 Nebraska 8-12

#7 Iowa and #10 Illinois would play on Thursday in what would likely be a tournament elimination game.  Same for #8 Rutgers and #9 Ohio State.  The winners of those games would probably be ok and on Friday they would play the top two seeds in games where a win would absolutely lock them in.  

#11 Michigan and #12 Nebraska would get a relatively easy Wednesday game against the dregs of the league (PSU and MN respectively).  They'd need to win that to avoid a bad loss but the win probably wouldn't be enough.  On Thursday they'd play tournament-bound Iowa and Maryland respectively.  Wins there would possibly get them in.  If they did win those, they'd play tournament-bound Indiana and Wisconsin respectively on Friday in games were a win would absolutely lock them in.  

[CatsbyAZ]

Gotta love Medina's exhaustive basketball posts. It's June. Over four months away from basketball season, with football season ahead of us, and nearly everyday I can read an entertainingly thorough post anticipating the upcoming season. The other day I read a post detailing the Big Ten's potential bubble teams. And it's only July tomorrow. This past season I actually started streaming Buckeyes games because Medina's Holtmann posts made OSU intriguing enough to follow. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Gotta love Medina's exhaustive basketball posts. It's June. Over four months away from basketball season, with football season ahead of us, and nearly everyday I can read an entertainingly thorough post anticipating the upcoming season. The other day I read a post detailing the Big Ten's potential bubble teams. And it's only July tomorrow. This past season I actually started streaming Buckeyes games because Medina's Holtmann posts made OSU intriguing enough to follow.

Since I no longer pay attention to college sports, I've been out of the loop. 

I need @medinabuckeye1 to provide his breakdown of exactly how Purdue basketball is going to rip their fans' hearts out this year. They already did the #1 losing to #16, so they've set the bar high.