2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

So for Ohio State, near as I can tell this is the situation.  

First, here is last year's roster with departures in bold.  Players are sorted by PPG.  YR, Player, GP, Min, Pts

• Brice Sensabaugh, 33, 24.5, 16.3, NBA
• Justice Sueing, 35, 30.3, 12.3, NBA
• SR F Zed Key, 25, 24.9, 10.8, returns
• SO G Bruce Thornton, 35, 30.5, 10.6, returns
• SR G Sean McNeil, 35, 29.1, 9.7, eligibility exhausted
• SO G Roddy Gayle JR, 35, 16.3, 4.6, returns
• SO C Felix Okpara, 35, 15.5, 4, returns
• SR G Isaac Likekele, 32, 21.8, 3.8, eligibility exhausted
• G Tanner Holden, 27, 13.5, 3.6, Portal to Wright State
• SR G Eugene Brown III, 22, 10.0, 2.2, Portal to GaSo
• SO G Bowen Hardman, 7, 2.7, 1.7, returns
• SO F Kalen Etzler, 9, 3.2, 0.8, returns
• SR F Owen Spencer, 7, 2.7, 0.4, returns
• SO G Colby Baumann, 3, 2, 0, returns
• Seth Towns, Portal to Howard

So the buckeyes lose their top two and three of their top five scorers from last year along with four other players.  

Obviously the losses of Sensabaugh, Sueing, and McNeil hurt.  The additional loss of Likekele is unfortunate.  IMHO, if Holden could only manage 13.5 minutes on last year's awful squad then losing him isn't a problem, same goes for Brown.  Towns is a hilarious story.  He is practically my age and will be an (checks notes) EIGHTH year senior at Howard this upcoming season.  Since he didn't play for Ohio State last year, his loss is of no consequence as compared to last year's team.  

Transfer Portal Additions:
Dale Bonner is a 6-3, 170# SR SG who comes to Ohio State by a long road.  He played two years of college ball at Fairmont State then transferred to Baylor and played another two years and now arrives at Ohio State as a fifth year senior after graduating from Shaker Heights High School in the Cleveland area before the pandemic.  Last year at Baylor he was a backup who averaged 4.7ppg.  

Evan Mahaffey is a 6-6, 200# SO F who comes to Ohio State from Penn State.  He graduated from Archbishop Moeller HS in Cincinnati who played just one year at PSU.  In that one year he was a backup who averaged 2.8ppg.  

Jamison Battle is a 6-7, 225# SR F who comes to Ohio State from Minnesota.  He was a team captain last year at Minnesota although that may not be saying much since the Gophers were the only team in the league arguably worse than the Buckeyes.  Prior to the 2022-23 season he played two years at GWU.  He averaged 17.5ppg for the Gophers last year.  


Recruits:
24/7 ranks Ohio State's 2023 class as #10 in the Nation and #3 in the B1G behind only MSU (#8) and IU (#9).  The recruits are:

Taison Chatmon
He is a 6-4, 170# 4* CG out of Minneapolis.  

Devin Royal
He is a 6-7, 210# 4* PF out of Pickerington Ohio.  

Scotty Middleton
He is a 6-6, 180# 4* SF out of Wichita.  

Austin Parks
He is a 6-9, 240# 3* C out of Saint Marys, Ohio.  

Breaking that down into the various guards as one "position group" and the various C's, F's, PF's, as the other, here is what I get, in order of my guess of production:
Guards:

• SO Bruce Thornton was already playing 30+ minutes per game last year so I think he'll be #1 here.  
• SO Roddy Gayle JR was playing 16.3 mpg last year and I expect that to increase.  
• SR Dale Bonner from Baylor (by way of Fairmont St from Cleveland) may be better than Gayle and who knows, might challenge Thornton.  
• FR Taison Chatmon I have at #4 because I don't think that the rest of the returning players will ever advance beyond backups.  
• SO Bowen Hardman
• SO Colby Baumann

C's/F's:

• SR Zed Key is the lead returning scorer, he'll be #1 here.  
• SO Felix Okpara played in every game last year and averaged 15.5mpg, I think he'll be #2 here.  
• SR Jamison Battle could surpass Okpara but who knows.  
• FR Devin Royal
• FR Scotty Middleton
• SO Kalen Etzler
• SR Owen Spencer
• FR Austin Parks, I think he is likely to redshirt as he is probably more of a project than the other two freshmen at this position.  

That should be enough to produce at least two B1G starter quality guys at each position.  Ideally they'll develop three B1G starter quality guys at each position and have the ability to go big or go small as the situation warrants without meaningfully diminishing quality.  

My guess is that they'll put the 2022/23 fiasco behind them and return to Holtmann's previous norm of finishing right around .500 in the league and exiting the NCAA's during the first weekend.  

Ohio State has not played a game beyond the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since losing to Wichita State in the Staples Center on March 30, 2013.  

[medinabuckeye1]

So for Ohio State optimistically:
Front Court:
Key and Okpara each make a meaningful improvement from last year and become maybe not conference all-stars but say top half level B1G starters.  Battle steps in as good as he was at Minnesota or better and one of the two 4* freshman is also ready to play at a high B1G level.  At that point the Buckeyes would have four starter-quality bigs so they could even probably afford an injury and still have plenty of quality depth.  

Back Court:
Thornton and Gayle each make a meaningful improvement from last year and become maybe not conference all-starts but say top half level B1G starters.  Bonner also improves meaningfully from his stint at Baylor and Chatmon arrives ready to compete at the B1G level.  Additionally, Hardman and Baumann improve enough to at least be serviceable backups on a quality team.  At that point the Buckeyes would have four starter-quality guards and two backup quality guards so they could even probably afford an injury and still have enough quality depth.  

Pessimistically:
Front Court:
Neither Key nor Okpara improve meaningfully compared to last year while Battle proves not to be as good as playing on an awful Minnesota team made him look and neither of the freshman are ready to compete at this level.  That makes for a fairly weak front court and if we sustain an injury as well, we'll be in big trouble.  

Back Court:
Neither Thornton nor Gayle improve meaningfully compared to last year while Bonner also still looks like a backup quality guard at best at this level, Chatmon is not ready to compete at this level, and Hardman/Baumann still aren't either.  That makes for a fairly weak back court and if we sustain an injury as well, we'll be in big trouble.  

[medinabuckeye1]

@MaximumSam or any other tOSU BB fans, thoughts?

[MaximumSam]

I like Thornton and Gayle a lot and I don't think it is hyperbole to say this should be the best back court Holtmann has had. The front court is more questionable. Not sure Battle gives them anything defensively. I don't know if Key and Okpara can play together. Who is the four? It's reasonable to think at least one freshman will get some meaningful minutes, but I don't have any idea who that will be. 

So best case is Thornton and Gayle provide one of the best pair of guards in the country, Okpara protects the rim, and everyone else does enough that this is a strong team where all five guys can score. Worst case they can never get anything sorted out defensively. Key and Okpara can't play together, forcing someone not that good into the lineup. Battle sucks on defense and is inefficient on offense. Worst worse case is Thornton gets hurt and this team looks like a clubbed seal.

[bayareabadger]

I kind of hope Ohio State sucks. Just because I would like them to reset.

[medinabuckeye1]

I kind of hope Ohio State sucks. Just because I would like them to reset.

My fear is that they'll return to Holtmann years 2-5 normal of being not quite good enough for anyone to care about (or even notice) Ohio State Basketball and yet not quite bad enough to make the necessity of a coaching change obvious enough that Gene Smith can't ignore it.

As a long-term Ohio State fan who was a fan through many coaches before this and will be a fan through many coaches after this I want this year's team to either be great or awful.

[medinabuckeye1]

Ohio State's BB scheduling philosophy, what I don't like about it, what I don't understand about it, and how I would change it:

Last season (2022/23) Ohio State played a fairly typical schedule for them:

• 10 league home games, 4-6
• 10 league road games, 1-9
• 1 B1G/ACC Challenge road game, 0-1
• 4 OOC neutral site games against pretty good opposition (2-2 vs SDSU, Cincy, TxTech, UNC), 2-2
• 6 OOC home games against pastries, 6-0

That adds up to their record entering the B1G Tournament of 13-18.  

What I don't like about it is that the six OOC home pastries are just ridiculous.  

What I don't understand about it is that none of those six games came even remotely close to filling up the arena:

• 8,350 attended the 11/16 game against Eastern Illinois
• 8,409 attended the 11/10 game against Charleston Southern
• 9,141 attended the 11/7 game against Robert Morris
• 10,398 attended the 12/3 game against St. Francis PA
• 10,641 attended the 12/21 game against Maine
• 14,521 attended the 12/29 game against Alabama A&M

Fans hate the cupcake games in football but at least there I understand them.  They do it for two reasons:

• They can sell 100,000+ tickets anyway, and
• Losses matter in football, a LOT.  

Consequently, there are very good reasons for the AD to schedule football cupcakes but why schedule BB cupcakes when:

• The six BB cupcakes averaged around 50% capacity in the arena, and
• Losses don't matter so much in BB because they use computer models to rank teams so beating a cupcake (especially at home) may actually hurt you while losing to a quality opponent (especially on the road) may actually help you.  

How I would change things:

• I would give up at least two of the cupcake home games for the road half of H&H series with quality opponents, and 
• To the extent possible I would schedule in-state or at least relatively local opponents for the OOC home games such that the visitors would bring at least some fans along and thus sell additional tickets.  

Ohio has six MAC schools (Toledo, BGSU, Miami, Ohio, Akron, Kent), neighboring Michigan has three (E/C/WMU), and neighboring Indiana has another (BallSt).  Any of those would bring at least some of their own fans, a lot more than the likes of BamaA&M, Maine, and Charleston Southern.  I'd also consider instate CSU and YSU.  I'm assuming here that Cincy and Xavier wouldn't be willing to show up for cash but I'd be willing to do 2:1's with them.  I'd even be willing to travel to in-state MAC (and CSU/YSU) for the right deal (probably 4:1).  

Trading two home cupcake games for the road half of H&H's would drop a total of four OOC cupcakes (the home half of the other two) and then if you could get local opponents for the remaining two you'd sell a LOT more tickets per game.  

[medinabuckeye1]

For the H&H OOC games, I'd obviously take BB Blue Bloods (UK, UNC, Dook, KU) if I could get them.  Other than that I'd look for teams historically good at both sports as Ohio State is.  Per the AP top-25 programs of all time lists, Ohio State is the only team in the top-10 in both sports.  They and the other schools ranked in both are:

You obviously can't schedule yourself and it would be pointless to schedule the other B1G (and about to be B1G) teams so if I were AD my priority for OOC BB H&H series would be:

• Notre Dame
• Oklahoma
• Arkansas

After that I'd look to schedule top-25 BB programs that are decent at football such as:

• #2 UNC
• #11 Cuse

Then I'd look for top-25 FB programs that are decent at basketball such as:

• #1 Bama
• #7/8 Texas
• #10 Tennessee
• #11 LSU
• #13 Florida State
• #14 Auburn
• #15 Florida
• #16 Miami, FL
• #17 Clemson
• #21 aTm
• #22 Washington

My priorities wouldn't be exactly in that order.  I'd look first at schools that tOSU has a relatively recent FB and/or BB history with so Florida would be my #1 (because we have postseason history in both sports with them) followed by Clemson (recent football history), then Bama (recent football history and they seem to be getting better at BB).  

So my order of priority for H&H series would be something like:

• Carolina
• Kentucky 
• Kansas
• Dook
• Notre Dame
• Oklahoma
• Arkansas
• Florida
• Clemson
• Bama
• Texas
• Tennessee (some postseason history in both sports)
• Syracuse
• LSU
• FSU
• Auburn
• Miami, FL
• aTm
• Washington

Replacing four of the six OOC Cupcakes with two home and two road games against the above 19 schools would, I think, help Ohio State Basketball in many ways.  First, it would limit the supply of tickets by about 40K/yr (two less home games).  Second, it would dramatically increase the demand for the two home games against teams from among the above 19.  Third, it would increase "buzz" around the program because people would follow, talk about, and go to games against these teams.  People don't follow or go to or care about games against Maine.  Fourth, it would create more interest nationally in the program since these games would have more attention paid to them.  Fifth, the combination of #1-4 would help create a shortage of BB tickets such that they became more of a desired commodity rather than just "eh, tOSU BB tickets".  

[847badgerfan]

It's tough to get a blue blood home and home unless you are a blue blood or in the next tier below. Even then it's tough.

[MaximumSam]

My fear is that they'll return to Holtmann years 2-5 normal of being not quite good enough for anyone to care about (or even notice) Ohio State Basketball and yet not quite bad enough to make the necessity of a coaching change obvious enough that Gene Smith can't ignore it.

As a long-term Ohio State fan who was a fan through many coaches before this and will be a fan through many coaches after this I want this year's team to either be great or awful.

The hope is he's Dan Hurley. He could be Fran McCaffery

[medinabuckeye1]

It's tough to get a blue blood home and home unless you are a blue blood or in the next tier below. Even then it's tough.

Definitely agreed, that is why I phrased it as:

For the H&H OOC games, I'd obviously take BB Blue Bloods (UK, UNC, Dook, KU) if I could get them.

In Carolina's case I'd offer a FB H&H in exchange for something like two or three BB H&H's, maybe Kentucky also.

If I still couldn't get any of the Blue Bloods I'd still have this list of schools I was interested in:

• Notre Dame
• Oklahoma
• Arkansas
• Florida
• Clemson
• Bama
• Texas
• Tennessee (some postseason history in both sports)
• Syracuse
• LSU
• FSU
• Auburn
• Miami, FL
• aTm
• Washington

I would think that any of those 15 would be at least somewhat interested in a H&H with Ohio State.

[medinabuckeye1]

The hope is he's Dan Hurley. He could be Fran McCaffery

Hurley just won an NC in year five at UCONN. Holtmann lost in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament in year five then missed the dance altogether in year six and is coming back for year seven. I understand what you meant, but he's already three years behind schedule to be Hurley. 

McCaffery is an interesting comparison. He's been at Iowa for a long time (the upcoming season will be his 14th there) and like Holtmann he almost always fields teams that are in that range of not quite good enough to accomplish anything (no league titles nor trips beyond the first weekend of the NCAA) and yet not quite bad enough to get replaced (only three sub .500 B1G campaigns and those came in years 1, 2, and 8).

The obvious difference IMO is that Iowa doesn't have anywhere near Ohio State's resources and historical BB success so that level of performance with the Hawkeyes is more of an accomplishment than it is with the Buckeyes.

[MaximumSam]

Hurley just won an NC in year five at UCONN. Holtmann lost in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament in year five then missed the dance altogether in year six and is coming back for year seven. I understand what you meant, but he's already three years behind schedule to be Hurley.

I know, but it shows the crapshoot we are in. Hurley was by your logic a failed coach after four years. He parlayed a good but not great regular seasons into two first round losses in the tourney for a historically great program. He even followed that up with a pretty lackluster conference season this year. Then they dominated the tourney.

[medinabuckeye1]

I know, but it shows the crapshoot we are in. Hurley was by your logic a failed coach after four years. He parlayed a good but not great regular seasons into two first round losses in the tourney for a historically great program. He even followed that up with a pretty lackluster conference season this year. Then they dominated the tourney.

I 100% agree that it is a crapshoot.  

I wouldn't have called him "failed" after four years due largely to trajectory.  He took over after a sub .500 season where the wins were then vacated (they went 14-18/7-11) the year before Hurley arrived.  Then Hurley went:

• 16-17/6-12 in 2019 (18/19 season, his first), Missed NCAA
• 19-12/10-8 in 2020, no NCAA due to COVID
• 15-8/11-6 in 2021, first round NCAA loss
• 23-10/13-6 in 2022, first round NCAA loss
• 31-8/13-7 in 2023, NCAA Champions

The only year that his league record didn't improve was, ironically, this year when they won the NCAA. 

Holtmann's year-by-year:

• 25-9/15-3 in 2018, second round NCAA loss (with Matta's recruits)
• 20-15/8-12 in 2019, second round NCAA loss
• 21-10/11-9 in 2020, no NCAA due to COVID
• 21-10/12-8 in 2021, first round NCAA loss as a #2 seed to a #15
• 20-12/12-8 in 2022, second round NCAA loss
• 16-19/5-15 in 2023, no NCAA

I first started to question the wisdom of the Athletic Department's continued relationship with Coach Holtmann after year four, the 2020/21 season with that embarrassing upset as a #2 seed in the NCAA.  That loss, by itself, was DEFINITELY NOT a firing offense.  Great coaches have lost as #2 seeds.  The difference here is great coaches also have offsetting NCAA wins.  Holtmann doesn't. 

If I were AD, I would definitely have ended the relationship after year five.  At that point his teams had plateaued.  His best year was (and still is) his first which happened with another guy's recruits and the further we get from that the less likely it appears that he'll ever get back there. 

I said then, however, that I understood the decision not to fire him.  I think after 2022 that it was a close call.  Giving him a lucrative extension, however, was ludicrous. 


The standard at Ohio State should ABSOLUTELY be League Titles and trips beyond the first weekend of the NCAA.  After five years Holtmann had none.  If you don't fire him at that point, you at least start looking at options and minimizing costs of the eventual termination (which I think is inevitable). 

If I were AD, I'd have gone into the 2022/23 season looking at it as Holtmann's opportunity to AT A MINIMUM show improvement.  Obviously the 2022/23 season was a complete fiasco and, IMHO, he should have been fired the night of the Minnesota loss.  That was pathetic.  Minnesota was a horrible team and Holtmann's Buckeyes lost to them AT HOME.  If not then, he certainly should have been let go or, at a minimum, the decision should have been finalized to let him go at the end of the season during the embarrassing 1-14 run from January 5 - February 23. 

Now we are entering Year eight with a coach who has never won a league title (at any job) and has not been beyond the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2017 (at Butler).  Ohio State's league title and S16 droughts are either approaching or have already surpassed the longest since the 1985 expansion with (IMHO) no improvement in sight.  The trajectory is flat (at best) and when I look at the 2023/24 roster I see yet another team like his year 2-5 teams that will finish around .500 (between 8-12 like 2019 and 12-8 like 2021 and 2022) then, as per usual, flame out unimpressively in March.  Then what? 

Do you then give a NINTH year to a guy who has never won a league title and hasn't been to a S16 since that year's freshmen were 10? 

What is the the end game.  What is the exit strategy? 

When you are in a hole, stop digging.  Our University's Athletic Department has been digging with Holtmann for seven years.  Attendance is down because nobody is nor has any reason to be excited about the program and team and it is time to stop digging. 

I hope to be proven wrong.  I'd love to see Holtmann win the league and National Titles this year but I have no confidence at all in this staff's ability to even get close to those goals let alone actually achieve them.