2022 NFL Thread

[Mdot21]

PFF currently ranks Lions CB Jeff Okudah as the #72 graded CB in the NFL in pass coverage.

He's taken a dip after a strong start- but that entire team has. He definitely needs another year to prove himself provided the Lions axe Campbell and get a real coach and real staff asap.

[MikeDeTiger]

There is some axiom in statistics, I don't remember what it's called, something along the lines of "the probability of an event changes the more times it occurs."  That's not stating it well, but I can't do any better at the moment.  Basically meaning that the stats say that going for 4th and 2 works x% of the time, however the more teams go for it on 4th and 2, that percentage can very well change.  In other words, the probability of success has been dependent on the sample size.  Other variables would factor in as well, such as how often defenses defend such a thing.  The more they see it, perhaps the better they get at stopping it.  

I wish I knew how "the analytics" were calculated.  There are plenty smarter people than me out there and the NFL surely has the money to pay them.  Otoh, some of the decisions make me wonder if they're made in a vacuum.  

[MikeDeTiger]

I forgot to mention that the play wrt to the teams matters as well.  The odds of 4th and 2 succeeding necessarily changes based on 1)  what play do you run, and how good are you at running it?  2) how good is the other team at defending that kind of play?  I just don't see a way that "analytics" can be some hard and fast rule.  

That said....it was funny to see an apoplectic Richard Sherman say he was "triggered" last Thursday night when Russell Wilson threw a pass at the end of the game and derped it away vs. the Colts.  That was kinda funny, so...thank you, analytics, for that.  

[FearlessF]

[MrNubbz]

  

[CatsbyAZ]

man Carson Wentz sucks. Not sure I've ever seen a fall quite like his...

The pile-on continues for terrible trio of Snyder, Wentz, and Rivera - from Deadspin:

"Last month, the Washington Commanders assumed their designated position on the NFL’s porcelain throne, and are henceforth known as the Washington Commodes (they are playing like ass). The stench has intensified since then. Losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 2 set off an avalanche. Now trapped under a 1-4 record and with oxygen running out, Ron Rivera felt compelled to throw his quarterback under the team bus by blaming him for the Commanders’ woes in 2022.

On Monday, a reporter asked Rivera what the difference was between the Commies…errr, Commodes, and the remainder of the NFC East’s 4-1 squads. Without hesitation, Rivera callously dropped a dye pack in Carson Wentz’s bag and set him up to take the fall.

“The truth is that this is a quarterback-driven league,” Rivera said. “And if you look at the teams that have been able to sustain success, they’ve been able to build it around a specific quarterback.”

As satisfying as it may be to pile onto Wentz, it’s a cop-out. Rivera’s answer was a continuation of the Carson Wentz scapegoat industry. Wentz has only dressed in a Washington uniform for five games and already he’s the representation of everything wrong with the organization. Meanwhile, Rivera has won fewer than 40 percent of his 41 games as coach of the Washington Football Team/Commanders."

The Washington Commodes...it fits!


https://twitter.com/Deadspin/status/1579947847168196608

[ELA]

Damn, figured once they changed the name their problem would be solved.  It's crazy how long it's been for so much NFL legacy franchises to even be in a conference championship.

Redskins/Commanders - Divisional Round in 2005, Conference Finals 1991

Cowboys - Divisional Round in 2018, Conference Finals 1995

Giants - Divisional Round and Conference Finals 2011

Bears - Divisional Round and Conference Finals 2010

Dolphins - Divisional Round in 2000, Conference Finals 1992

[CatsbyAZ]

Damn, figured once they changed the name their problem would be solved.  It's crazy how long it's been for so much NFL legacy franchises to even be in a conference championship.

Redskins/Commanders - Divisional Round in 2005, Conference Finals 1991

Bears - Divisional Round and Conference Finals 2010

Amazon is shameless in their promotion of their exclusive rights to broadcast Thursday NF through Prime. Amazon's homepage has morphed into an all day running promo for tonight's Bears Vs Commodes matchup, featuring a wretchedly grinning Carson Wentz and Justin Fields. The two worst QBs/Offenses in the entire NFL. How clueless. If Kirk Cousins is your Garden Variety NFL QB, Wentz is straight from the stinking compost heap!

Along with their homepage, Amazon realized the sheer surface area of packaging delivered everyday can be used as acreages of billboard advertising. So with the mailroom of my apartment building full of boxes as usual, picking up a delivery means facing 120 ads for Power of the Rings or TNF.

edit: if I had to see it so do you -

[ELA]

Please make the Thursday night game between two teams that didn't play the Sunday before. Alternatively, get rid of the game, and bring back decent ACC or Big East Thursday night games

[OrangeAfroMan]

I forgot to mention that the play wrt to the teams matters as well.  The odds of 4th and 2 succeeding necessarily changes based on 1)  what play do you run, and how good are you at running it?  2) how good is the other team at defending that kind of play?  I just don't see a way that "analytics" can be some hard and fast rule. 

This makes me think you're misunderstanding things.  The way you describe it is like how people like to compare groups, not knowing that comparing individuals within those groups tells you almost nothing about those individuals.

The "go for it on 4th and 2 from x-yard line" is "just" an average line in the sand, but it takes into account all that you mentioned.  All the play types and qualities of teams and the ebbs and flows of success.  It's a number to inform a coach.  I may not want to go for it in the first quarter, as getting in an early hole is something I really want to avoid, even if the likelihood is technically "worth it."

It's not hard-and-fast.  Like most everything, it's relative and in some situations as a HC, I don't give a shit what the odds of a play are, because I want to create an outcome that is 100% (or close to it).

[MarqHusker]

You had this game opposite Baylor v WVa.  

If you never saw football, you'd swear the college variety was the better product. 

[FearlessF]

well, until halfway through the 4th quarter with Baylor and WVU trying to give the game away

[rook119]

Herbie is just there collecting checks (can't say I blame him). His analysis is strictly "I remember this guy in college". 

[CatsbyAZ]

You would've thought the Washington Commodes last another game given the tension at the post-game presser following somehow beating the Bears in an ugly 12-7 game. But no, Ron Rivera throws a hissy fit:

"They played their asses off - they have. They come out and show up and work hard, alright. They don't complain, OK. They hear all this stuff - they got to deal with it. I get it, I respect them for it because they're resilient. Everybody keeps saying I don't want anything to do with Carson - well bullsh*t. I'm the f*cking guy that pulled out the sheets of paper, that looked at the analytics, that watched the tape, freaking, when we were in Indianapolis, OK. That's what pisses me off. The young man doesn't deserve to have that all the time!"

All before Rivera storms off. The pathetic sideshow in Washington rolls on.



https://twitter.com/MicheleSteele/status/1580761847137193984