header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: 2022 NFL Draft Thread

 (Read 4013 times)

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 53169
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #224 on: May 01, 2022, 08:58:38 AM »
I'm sure they look at "intangibles" as best they can, as well as talent, durability, success in college, etc.  Obviously some players are great in college and for some reason don't pan out later, and vice versa.  It's a bit like the 4-5 star HS players, maybe a LOT like it.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 16712
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #225 on: May 01, 2022, 09:03:45 AM »
3 years is a fair time to judge a draft, IMO. The average career is only slightly longer than that. After 3 years, you know if you have a bust or a great one, in most cases. 

Aaron Rodgers comes to mind as an exception, as he sat behind Favre for his first 3 before becoming a star. I don't think that happens much anymore though. They make too much money to sit and wait.

Steve Young didn't do much in Tampa or in SF, until Montana retired.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14320
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #226 on: May 01, 2022, 09:06:13 AM »
I'm focusing more on the player's fit into the team....it's not like hoping your draftee is a round peg for a round hole - considering the turnover rate of players at all positions, the hole can be round, square, star-shaped, etc., and is constantly changing.  The coordinators change every few years, too, so you're basically drafting a guy in the hopes that he will be able to excel in any situation, which is unlikely for any player, no matter how good.
.
With all the moving parts, no one is LIKELY to succeed.  But if you luck out and hit on enough guys being solid contributors and lady luck helps with the breakout players at least at the rate of chance, you might avoid "bad" drafts.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 53169
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #227 on: May 01, 2022, 09:06:56 AM »
QB is probably the one position where a great player might sit 3-4 years before getting a shot.  I think a great player likely needs to have a ten year career minimum.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14320
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #228 on: May 01, 2022, 09:07:09 AM »
3 years is a fair time to judge a draft, IMO. The average career is only slightly longer than that. After 3 years, you know if you have a bust or a great one, in most cases.

Aaron Rodgers comes to mind as an exception, as he sat behind Favre for his first 3 before becoming a star. I don't think that happens much anymore though. They make too much money to sit and wait.

Steve Young didn't do much in Tampa or in SF, until Montana retired.
But you know for a fact that each additional year you wait, your observation will be more accurate.  So why the rush?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 16712
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #229 on: May 01, 2022, 09:10:25 AM »
Because the average career is NFL (not for long). 3.3 years.

U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 53169
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #230 on: May 01, 2022, 09:18:39 AM »
But great players are not average.  I'd guess the average may include a player on the scout team who makes a handful of games and quits.

A median would be a better metric I think.  

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 53169
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #231 on: May 01, 2022, 09:22:46 AM »
The ‘average career length is 3.5 years’ stat needs clarification : nfl (reddit.com)

If you make a roster opening day the average career is 6.1 seasons.
If you make it 3 seasons, your average is 7.9.
If you are a first round pick? 9.3.
Play in a single Pro Bowl? 11.7.



OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14320
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #232 on: May 01, 2022, 09:30:34 AM »
Because the average career is NFL (not for long). 3.3 years.

[img width=500 height=387.995]https://i.imgur.com/QrLH0Hw.png[/img]
Great, so after 3 years, you'll be able to split the draftees into 2 groups:  "not playing anymore" and "still playing."  Really useful.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 53169
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #233 on: May 01, 2022, 09:41:57 AM »
Great, so after 3 years, you'll be able to split the draftees into 2 groups:  "not playing anymore" and "still playing."  Really useful.
That would require a median, not an average of data not normally distributed.  This "average" is a distorted figure, not really relevant, in my view.


OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14320
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #234 on: May 01, 2022, 09:59:49 AM »
That's not the point.  The point is that it fails to distinguish between a backup and a pro-bowler.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 53169
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #235 on: May 01, 2022, 10:02:43 AM »
To distinguish between "still active" and "not playing any more", you need the median, not the average.  The median may well be 5-6 years.  I couldn't find data on it oddly enough.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14320
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #236 on: May 01, 2022, 10:04:54 AM »
Probably because people don't know what median is.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 53169
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #237 on: May 01, 2022, 10:08:12 AM »
Great, so after 3 years, you'll be able to split the draftees into 2 groups:  "not playing anymore" and "still playing."  Really useful.
The median, as I said, would likely be 5-6-7 years, not 3.  And in the above, you'd need the median.


 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.