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Topic: 2022 NFL Draft Thread

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #238 on: May 01, 2022, 10:55:38 AM »
I think you do this on purpose.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #239 on: May 01, 2022, 11:05:49 AM »
Yes, if "it" is making important distinctions clear, I do it on purpose.

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #240 on: May 01, 2022, 11:49:18 AM »
As I have said before, if I had to make a living accurately predicting which college players would be good pros I would be a very poor man.

Having said that, this concept that the NFL has become a passing league has never been more obvious than this draft. I think we all understand the lack of QBs taken, but so much focus on wide receivers, edge rushers, and defensive backs and virtually little to no focus on running backs.
yup. it's all passing now. rule changes have geared it toward offenses to the point where it's almost unfair. this was just a really bad QB draft at the top. No elite level guys. Next year we'll have two in CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. Lions get either one of those guys- man they'll be on their way. 

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #241 on: May 01, 2022, 11:50:25 AM »
I don't doubt their talent evals, but whether or not a player is successful involves so many other things besides talent.
Rating a draft in the moment is silly, of course, because it's simply rating it compared to the consensus...nothing more.  And as you said, the consensus isn't great.
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Maybe we could judge each draft 8 years down the line? 
Cover the current draft, all the focus on the first 2 rounds.  But for the lagging later round coverage, do a deep-dive on the draft from 8 years prior.  Then it makes some sense, no?
100%. Situation and coaching they go into matters just as much if not more than the players actual talent. Lot of talented players go to really bad teams and play for really bad coaches and never develop. 

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #242 on: May 01, 2022, 11:55:16 AM »
3 years is a fair time to judge a draft, IMO. The average career is only slightly longer than that. After 3 years, you know if you have a bust or a great one, in most cases.

Aaron Rodgers comes to mind as an exception, as he sat behind Favre for his first 3 before becoming a star. I don't think that happens much anymore though. They make too much money to sit and wait.

Steve Young didn't do much in Tampa or in SF, until Montana retired.
agree 100%, three or four years is plenty of time to judge a draft. 

while this is true of Tampa Bay- they were just the most awful team ever in the league at the time- Young had no help. In San Fransisco when Walsh threw him into games while Montana was at his peak- Young made some plays now- and Young won the league MVP award the year Montana had to sit out due to back and elbow injuries. Montana didn't retire, San Fransisco traded him to Kansas City because Young proved to be too good not to keep when he actually got to start because of Montana's injuries. 

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #243 on: May 01, 2022, 11:57:10 AM »

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #244 on: May 01, 2022, 11:59:55 AM »
QB is probably the one position where a great player might sit 3-4 years before getting a shot.  I think a great player likely needs to have a ten year career minimum.
where does this happen? this does not happen anymore. the only time in the last 25 years or maybe longer this has happened was with Aaron Rodgers. You're talking about an extremely rare one off which was a situation that involved two of the greatest QB's ever.

NFL plays 1st rd QBs right away these days. They almost have to, considering the amount of money QB's are making now. The formula teams look for is what Seattle did, what the KC Chiefs have done, what the Bengals just did. Get a QB on a cheap rookie deal and try to get to the Super Bowl with him asap. Because once that QB gets to his second deal- you're going to have to pay him insane amounts of money to keep him.

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #245 on: May 01, 2022, 12:05:36 PM »
I'm focusing more on the player's fit into the team....it's not like hoping your draftee is a round peg for a round hole - considering the turnover rate of players at all positions, the hole can be round, square, star-shaped, etc., and is constantly changing.  The coordinators change every few years, too, so you're basically drafting a guy in the hopes that he will be able to excel in any situation, which is unlikely for any player, no matter how good.
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With all the moving parts, no one is LIKELY to succeed.  But if you luck out and hit on enough guys being solid contributors and lady luck helps with the breakout players at least at the rate of chance, you might avoid "bad" drafts.
this 100%. Which is probably why the teams that have stable coaching staffs with identities/schemes they stick to- even if co-ordinators change- like the Ravens or Steelers always seem to have really good players. 

Injury luck always plays a huge part as well. Look at players like Andrew Luck or Jake Long or Sterling Sharpe. Those were HOF level players that put up elite seasons and had their careers just devastated by injury. Or Tom Brady...the greatest NFL player ever never happens if Drew Bledsoe doesn't nearly get killed by Mo Lewis of the Jets.

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #246 on: May 01, 2022, 12:20:48 PM »
Georgia had a whopping 15 players drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, breaking the previous record of 14 players drafted from one school in a single draft which Ohio State (2004 draft) and LSU (2020 draft) shared. 

Georgia also had 5 defensive players drafted in the 1st round, which is a record as far defensive only players go. The record for total number of players drafted in the 1st round in 6, a record shared by Miami Hurricanes (2004 NFL Draft) and Alabama (2021 NFL Draft). 

Well done Georgia, well done.

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #247 on: May 01, 2022, 12:42:37 PM »
Chris Hinton of Michigan goes from 5* high school prospect to undrafted. He only started one year at Michigan- 2021 season- and he left two years of eligibility on the table to go to the NFL Draft, only to not get drafted. Should be a cautionary tale to every player....don't leave with multiple years of eligibility left on the table unless you're 100% going to get drafted.

SuperMario

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #248 on: May 01, 2022, 01:09:04 PM »
Browns are going to regret passing on Ojabo only to see him go to a division rival. Ravens absolutely crushed this draft.

bayareabadger

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #249 on: May 01, 2022, 01:20:27 PM »
Chris Hinton of Michigan goes from 5* high school prospect to undrafted. He only started one year at Michigan- 2021 season- and he left two years of eligibility on the table to go to the NFL Draft, only to not get drafted. Should be a cautionary tale to every player....don't leave with multiple years of eligibility left on the table unless you're 100% going to get drafted.
I usually shrug at these. There's been a million of them. And they all happen for various reasons. 

He's a perfectly nice nose tackle who doesn't rush the passer well. Is he gonna be a better prospect next season? Who knows? If he wants to be a fringy NFL player instead of a decent college starter, well, the heart wants what it wants. He shouldn't be hurting for money when it's all said and done. 

(I remember watching a mid-major kid who was awesome, but would never solve being too short and too slow. He left a year early because he knew his QB would suck. Went undrafted, bounced around. Ended up earning a modest $16 mil before age 30. Gonna settle into being a solid coach when it all shakes out)

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #250 on: May 01, 2022, 01:35:48 PM »
Browns are going to regret passing on Ojabo only to see him go to a division rival. Ravens absolutely crushed this draft.
100%. Ravens crush most drafts and have a great coaching staff. But that's why the Ravens are the Ravens and always a 10+ win playoff team, and well the Browns are the Browns lol. 

Mdot21

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Re: 2022 NFL Draft Thread
« Reply #251 on: May 01, 2022, 01:43:53 PM »
I usually shrug at these. There's been a million of them. And they all happen for various reasons.

He's a perfectly nice nose tackle who doesn't rush the passer well. Is he gonna be a better prospect next season? Who knows? If he wants to be a fringy NFL player instead of a decent college starter, well, the heart wants what it wants. He shouldn't be hurting for money when it's all said and done.

(I remember watching a mid-major kid who was awesome, but would never solve being too short and too slow. He left a year early because he knew his QB would suck. Went undrafted, bounced around. Ended up earning a modest $16 mil before age 30. Gonna settle into being a solid coach when it all shakes out)
I see what you're saying. If a kid really doesn't like school or needs the money- then go. Do what makes you happy. If a player really commits themselves in college to develop and improve over 2 years- well, they obviously absolutely can. Hinton absolutely could develop his game and get better and move up draft boards. He had one year of starting on tape. That doesn't bode well for getting drafted high or at all. You see guys stick around and get better and improve and move up draft boards. It happens all the time. So what you're saying has no basis in fact or reality. Just look at Jermaine Johnson who went in the 1st rd with the Jets. He transferred to Georgia from a community college and he barely put up any #'s at Georgia- he had 6.5 sacks in 3 years  there and then transferred to Florida State for his 5th year season and wound up blowing up there winning ACC defensive player of the year and recording 18 TFL's and 13 sacks and going in the 1st round. If he had left for the NFL after his junior year- he might not have ever gotten drafted.

Hinton's dad is a former high 1st round draft pick who played in the NFL for like 10-12 years, something like that. He was famously part of that John Elway trade. And I believe his Mom is a doctor. Hinton and his brothers all went to college on full ride scholarships. I'm going to bet that family isn't hurting for money.

 

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