What is at stake for each of the B1G teams in the B1G Tournament starting tonight in Indianapolis? I'll take them by groups:
Group #1 are the two co-Champions and Purdue:
- 15-5/22-8 Illinois: #14 in NET, #4 seed per Lunardi and ELA
- 15-5/24-6 Wisconsin: #21 in NET, #2 seed per Lunardi, #4 seed per ELA
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue: #13 in NET, #3 seed per Lunardi and ELA
None of these teams would have the resume for a #1 seed even with a 3-0 run in the BTT but I am fairly confident that any of these teams would secure a #2 seed with a BTT Championship. There probably isn't more than one #2 seed available for the B1G though so the other two (all three if none of these teams wins) will be in the #3/4 range. That is no small difference:
- #2 seeds win their opener 94% of the time for the 3/4 that drops to 85% and 78% respectively.
- #2 seeds make the S16 almost 2/3 the time, for the 3/4 that drops to roughly half.
- #2 seeds make the E8 almost half the time, for the 3/4 that drops to 26% and 15% respectively.
- #2 seeds are about twice as likely as 3/4 seeds to make the F4 and more likely to win a semi-final or NC.
Group #2 is Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State:
- 12-8/22-9 Iowa: #15 in NET, #6 seed per Lunardi, #7 seed per ELA
- 12-8/19-10 Ohio State: #22 in NET, #6 seed per Lunardi #7 seed per ELA
- 11-9/20-11 Michigan State: #40 in NET, #8 seed per Lunardi and ELA
For these three teams I think the goal has to be to get or stay away from the #7/8/9/10 (particularly 8/9) lines where S16 appearances are quite rare. For comparison:
- Roughly 1/2 of #4 seeds make the S16
- Roughly 1/3 of #5 seeds make the S16
- Almost 1/3 of #6 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-five #7 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-ten #8 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-twenty #9 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-six #10 seeds make the S16
- Roughly one-in-six #11 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-six #12 seeds make the S16
The 8/9 seeds have it particularly rough. Of the 144 pairs of 8/9 seeds since expansion only one got to play a #16 seed in the second round. That one won of course but the other 143 8/9 winners all had to play a #1 seed in the second round and the results were what you would expect:
- #8 seeds are 14-56 against #1 seeds, .200
- #9 seeds are 6-67 against #1 seeds .082
Even the 7/10 seeds are MUCH less likely to make the S16 than the #6 seeds.
For Iowa and Ohio State this means that they HAVE to avoid a bad loss on Thursday against UNL/NU (IA) or MN/PSU (tOSU). That almost certainly would keep either the Buckeyes or Hawkeyes at least off the 8/9 lines and it might secure a #6. If not, a quarter-final win on Friday against RU (IA) or PU (tOSU) would almost certainly land them at #6 or better.
For the Spartans beating UMD on Thursday might get them off the 8/9 lines but they might also need to knock off Wisconsin on Friday. A semi-final win, particularly if it came against PU, would probably get them up to #6.
Group #3 is the bubble teams:
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers: #76 in NET, second-to-last team in per Lunardi, #2 in the NIT per ELA
- 11-9/17-13 Michigan: #31 in NET, Last bye per Lunardi, #9 per ELA
- 9-11/18-12 Indiana: #44 in NET, First team out per Lunardi, #1 in the NIT per ELA
All these teams are on or REALLY close to the bubble depending on who you ask. Personally, I think that the IU/M game on Thursday is likely a play-in game and Michigan is the only one of the three that I think would have so much as a prayer with an 0-1 performance in Indianapolis. Rutgers definitely has work to do but the question is how much work. IMHO, one win might be enough for the Scarlet Knights but I think that depends on who they end up playing. I think that beating Iowa and losing to Illinois probably gets them in but beating UNL/NU and losing to IU/M probably isn't enough.
Group #4 is the rest of the league:
- 7-13/15-16 Maryland: #89 in NET, out.
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern: #82 in NET, out.
- 7-13/12-16 Penn State: #93 in NET, out.
- 4-16/13-16 Minnesota: #107 in NET, out.
- 4-16/10-21 Nebraska: #140 in NET, out.
These teams would need a three (UMD) or four (the others) win run to a title to get into the dance.