2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[SuperMario]

Who is a one and done at Michigan? Houstan, maybe. As we have seen at Duke and Kentucky, high ceiling talent doesnt always translate to being ready year 1 in college and that’s not always the coaches fault. Unless, someone is willing to make the claim that coach K did an average job coaching some years. That talent group is a double edged sword. And don’t get me wrong, sometimes it is the coaches fault and I hear your point. Just not sure if comfortable with an answer yet.

Apparently we will have time to get answers. Is Howard a mediocre coach? Is he an embarrassment that’s just going to pop off again and lead to a termination? Time apparently will tell.

[bayareabadger]

In all the kerfuffle of the last week, wanted to make a small note about something UW did.

Last week, at IU, the Badgers got to 20 wins. Maybe that number is only significant because it's round, but at some point in my fandom, I decided that number was a floor of sorts. If you win 20, you're probably pretty alright. You're almost assuredly dancing, which is the dividing line in this sport. 

UW hit that mark for the 14th time in 17 seasons since I got to school. They also did it the three seasons prior. Sometimes it comes early, like this year. Sometimes it takes longer. Last year's team didn't do it, but it probably would have with a full schedule. In any case, consistent success is not a given, especially in a place like Wisconsin, so that's something to be thankful for. 

[847badgerfan]

Great post.

I was a fan when Steve Yoder was around. If you told me then that UW would rip off the kind of success it has, I'd have asked for some of your smoke.

[GopherRock]

It goes to show you how little I paid attention to college basketball last winter that I missed the fracas between Howard and Marc Turgeron.


I was wrong yesterday. Howard should have been fired before the bus left the Kohl Center.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Last week, at IU, the Badgers got to 20 wins. Maybe that number is only significant because it's round, but at some point in my fandom, I decided that number was a floor of sorts. If you win 20, you're probably pretty alright. You're almost assuredly dancing, which is the dividing line in this sport.

Yeah, in the B1G, 20 wins almost assures you're in the field of 68. 

I also see 25 as a sort of dividing line between a good season and a pretty great one... And Purdue's done that 8 times in Matt Painter's tenure, exactly half of his 16 (complete) seasons with the team. Unless something horrifically bad happens, they'll do it again this year as Purdue is now 24-4. 

[847badgerfan]

[bayareabadger]

Who is a one and done at Michigan? Houstan, maybe. 

They have two recruits you'd consider ranked in the one-and-done range. Diabate and Houstan. Obviously neither has really played to that level. Were he shaped differently or were the NBA not in its current era re: centers, Hunter Dickinson would've been one last year.

(This is not to say it is or isn't a rebuilding year, just to flesh out what talent they have)

[medinabuckeye1]

In all the kerfuffle of the last week, wanted to make a small note about something UW did.

Last week, at IU, the Badgers got to 20 wins. Maybe that number is only significant because it's round, but at some point in my fandom, I decided that number was a floor of sorts. If you win 20, you're probably pretty alright. You're almost assuredly dancing, which is the dividing line in this sport.

UW hit that mark for the 14th time in 17 seasons since I got to school. They also did it the three seasons prior. Sometimes it comes early, like this year. Sometimes it takes longer. Last year's team didn't do it, but it probably would have with a full schedule. In any case, consistent success is not a given, especially in a place like Wisconsin, so that's something to be thankful for.

Yeah, in the B1G, 20 wins almost assures you're in the field of 68.

I also see 25 as a sort of dividing line between a good season and a pretty great one... And Purdue's done that 8 times in Matt Painter's tenure, exactly half of his 16 (complete) seasons with the team. Unless something horrifically bad happens, they'll do it again this year as Purdue is now 24-4.

I agree with both of these with a minor clarification on 25 being pretty great:

WRT 20 being "pretty alright" I agree and don't really care how you get there.  Even if you "only" go say 17-14 in the regular season but then you go 3-1 in the league tournament to finish 20-15 you are probably going to the big dance so you are "pretty alright".  Conversely, if you go 20-11 then lose your league tournament opener to finish 20-12 that was a better regular season but a worse league tournament so either way I agree, "pretty alright".  

WRT to 25 being "pretty great" I agree, but only if the 25 wins are accomplished IN the regular season or if you have substantial post-season success.  Ie, a 25-6 regular season is pretty great but a 21-10 regular season with two wins each in the league and national tournaments just means that you were pretty good then went 2-1 and didn't win the league tournament then made the S16 but didn't win any second-weekend games.  Eh, that is pretty good but not great IMHO.  

[ELA]

Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom.  Things should come into focus more as we go on.  Still have some outliers.

For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament

February 21 update

NCAA
MIDWEST

• #1 Kansas vs. #16 Gardner-Webb/Southern
• #8 Marquette vs. #9 Notre Dame
• #5 Alabama vs. #12 Dayton
• #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 South Dakota State
• #3 Villanova vs. #14 Wagner
• #6 Murray State vs. #11 Loyola(Chi)
• #7 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #10 Boise State
• #2 Texas Tech vs. #15 Montana State

WEST

• #1 Arizona vs. #16 Colgate/Nicholls
• #8 Colorado State vs. #9 North Texas
• #5 Providence vs. #12 Iona
• #4 Texas vs. #13 New Mexico State
• #3 UCLA vs. #14 Princeton
• #6 LSU vs. #11 TCU
• #7 IOWA vs. #10 Xavier
• #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 UC Irvine

SOUTH

• #1 Auburn vs. #16 Norfolk State
• #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Davidson
• #5 OHIO STATE vs. #12 Miami/Creighton
• #4 Houston vs. #13 Toledo
• #3 Duke vs. #14 Furman
• #6 Arkansas vs. #11 San Diego State
• #7 Saint Mary's vs. #10 MICHIGAN
• #2 Baylor vs. #15 South Alabama

EAST

• #1 Kentucky vs. #16 Oakland
• #8 Wake Forest vs. #9 Seton Hall
• #5 USC vs. #12 SMU/INDIANA
• #4 WISCONSIN vs. #13 Vermont
• #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Towson
• #6 Connecticut vs. #11 San Francisco
• #7 Iowa State vs. #10 Wyoming
• #2 PURDUE vs. #15 Liberty

NIT
GAINESVILLE

• #1 Florida vs. #8 Alcorn State
• #4 Ohio vs. #5 Chattanooga
• #3 West Virginia vs. #6 Texas A&M
• #2 BYU vs. #7 Long Beach State

RICHMOND

• #1 VCU vs. #8 New Orleans
• #4 St. John's vs. #5 Colorado
• #3 Mississippi State vs. #6 Central Florida
• #2 Kansas State vs. #7 PENN STATE

NASHVILLE

• #1 Belmont vs. #8 Cleveland State
• #4 St. Bonaventure vs. #5 Oregon
• #3 Virginia Tech vs. #6 Vanderbilt
• #2 Oklahoma vs. #7 Texas State

MEMPHIS

• #1 Memphis vs. #8 Jacksonville State
• #4 South Carolina vs. #5 Saint Louis
• #3 Virginia vs. #6 UAB
• #2 RUTGERS vs. #7 Longwood

Big Ten teams left out

• Minnesota - #1 team out
• Northwestern - #3 team out
• Maryland - #8 team out
• Nebraska - n/a

[medinabuckeye1]

League title race update:

• 13-4 Purdue:  Controls their own destiny to the league title.  Winning out would knock out UW and they'd win a tie with IL based on sweeping them.  
• 12-4 Wisconsin:  Controls their own destiny to a share of the league title and winning out would knock out PU but they'd lose a tie with IL so they need an IL loss to be The Champion as opposed to a Champion.  
• 12-4 Illinois:  Controls their own destiny to a share of the league title but they'd lose a tie with PU so they need a PU loss to be The Champion as opposed to a Champion.  
• 10-5 Ohio State:  Needs a loss by the PU/UW winner to get a share of the title.  Getting to The Champion rather than a Champion is significantly trickier.  The Buckeyes would win a 15-5 tie with IL (because they'd have to beat IL to get there) but they'd lose a tie with PU (only played once, in W. Lafayette) and a tie with UW would come down to record against the next best team which works for tOSU if that team is IL but not if it is PU.  
• 10-6 Rutgers:  Being The Champion is mathematically possible but practically impossible.  Being a Champion is unlikely but possible.  They'd need two losses by the PU/UW winner, a loss by the PU/UW loser, two losses by IL, and one loss by tOSU (but note that one of those last three will be automatic when tOSU/IL play).  
• 9-6 Michigan State:  Same as Rutgers except that they play PU and tOSU so they need a little less outside help.  
• 8-7 Iowa:  As a practical matter they are probably hopeless.  They'd need PU to lose out but that would give UW a 13th win so they'd need UW to lose the rest of their games and two more losses by IL, and two losses by tOSU, and a loss by RU.  
• 8-7 Michigan:  Basically the same as Iowa.  Winning out would give RU 7 losses, IL 5 losses, MSU 7 losses, and tOSU 6 losses but they'd still need PU to lose out, UW to beat PU but otherwise lose out, IL to lose two more, and tOSU to lose one more.  

IU, PSU, UMD, NU, MN, and UNL each have at least nine losses so they are mathematically eliminated.  Purdue can do no worse than 13-7 and none of them can do better than 11-9 which also couldn't catch UW or IL.  

[CatsbyAZ]

Howard tries to knock another coach out on national tv and he gives him a 5 game suspension and fines him $40k.

I’m wondering if an unintended consequence of Howard punching/slapping the Wisconsin coach will be a broadening dialogue on whether the wave of hiring your school’s former NBA Star as your coach is already a flop?

Only a few weeks ago Anfernee Hardaway of Memphis lost his temper with the media. And Patrick Ewing is in year 5 with Georgetown and only has 1 NCAA Tournament appearance to show for it, on top of a 6-20 W/L record so far this season.

Hiring an NBA player alum provides an edge in recruiting, fundraising, and brings a bit of star power to the position, but it doesn’t appear these guys are masters of the Xs & Os or put in the film room hours or player development of their more Beilein like counterparts who were scholars of the boring details like clock management, player rotations, exploiting matchups, and handling the media.

[SuperMario]

I would agree the ceiling for Diabate is very high because of his athleticism, but he is very raw. He’s definitely gotten better as the season had gone on. Is that coaching or experience I don’t know.

[medinabuckeye1]

It is interesting to me that Rutgers and Iowa are nearly exact opposites concerning their NET Rankings / Tournament chances.  

Quality wins:

• Rutgers looks GREAT on this metric, they are near the top of the league with six Q1 wins.  That is third in the league behind only the Boilermakers and Badgers (seven each) and it is more than IL (5), tOSU (4), MSU (3), M (3), IU (2).  
• Iowa looks BAD on this metric, they are near the bottom of the league with just one Q1 win.  That is tied with Northwestern for second-worst and only lowly Nebraska lacks a Q1 win.  

Bad losses:

• Rutgers looks BAD on this metric.  Their Q4 loss is one of only two by the entire B1G with the other being by Nebraska.  They also have two Q3 losses which is tied with Northwestern for third worst in the league better only than UMD (4) and UNL (3).  
• Iowa looks GREAT on this metric.  They are 12-0 in Q3/4 games and a respectable 5-3 in Q2 games.  

Looking ahead:
Locks:

• 13-4/24-4 Purdue:  Two of their remaining three games are Q1 (@MSU, @UW) and the home game against IU is Q2 so even if they lost out they wouldn't take a bad loss.  They are in.  
• 12-4/21-5 Wisconsin:  Wisconsin's worst-case-scenario is much worse than Purdue's both because the Badgers have more games left and because they have weaker opponents.  Their game against PU is their only remaining Q1 game with @MN, @RU, and vUNL all being less impressive.  Still, their worst-case-scenario is 12-8/21-10 and that would get them in.  

Probably a Lock, definitely should be in:

• 12-4/19-7 Illinois:  I think they are a lock because three of their remaining four games are Q1 so even losing out wouldn't involve more than one bad loss but they'd be sweating it out on Selection Sunday if they somehow finished 14-8/19-12.  

Should be in:

• 10-5/17-7 Ohio State:  The Buckeyes are going to be short games this year which makes it hard to compare to past teams' overall records but I think that two more wins locks it up for them (minimum of 19-11 at that point).  
• 9-6/18-8 Michigan State:  The good news / bad news for the Spartans is that four of their last five games are Q1 (@IA, vsPU, @M, @tOSU).  That is good because it minimizes the chances of a bad loss (only vsUMD would be bad) but it is bad because all of those are very much losable games.  This isn't a typical MSU team.  They are only 3-5 in Q1 games and they have a Q3 loss (vsNU I think).  I think two more wins locks it up for them (minimum of 20-14 at that point) but if they finish 20-14 they'll be a little nervous on Selection Sunday.  
• 8-7/18-8 Iowa:  As noted above the Hawkeyes' major weakness is a lack of quality wins.  They picked up a nice one in Columbus over the weekend but that is literally their ONLY Q1 win.  Their lack of quality wins probably will not keep them out of the tournament but it could quickly become problematic if they got closer to the bubble.  

Work to do:

• 10-6/16-10 Rutgers:  As noted above, Rutgers is Iowa's opposite with LOTS of quality wins but those are balanced off by too many bad losses.  Three of their last four games are Q1 (@M, vsUW, @IU).  That is good (opportunities for more quality wins) but bad (high chance of loss).  IMHO, Rutgers' most critical remaining game is the home game against PSU to close out the season because they just can't take yet another bad loss especially because the others were early in the season so they might be forgiven.  
• 8-7/14-11 Michigan:  With 11 losses already the Wolverines just don't have many to give.  Four of their last five games are Q1 (vsIL, vsMSU, vsIA, @tOSU).  That is good because Michigan could use some quality wins (currently 3-7 Q1) but it is concerning because the biggest issue for the Wolverines is probably win volume.  
• 7-9/16-10 Indiana:  February has NOT been kind to the Hoosiers.  At the end of January they were 16-5/7-4 and looked like a solid Tournament team.  Since then they are 0-5.  They haven't been all that bad.  They only lost to UW by five and pushed tOSU to OT in Columbus but 0-5 is 0-5 and it isn't good.  In the latest projection from Lunardi the Hoosiers are in a play-in game as one of the last four in.  The good news is that the schedule is about to get much easier but the bad news is that the schedule is about to get much easier.  They should win their home game against UMD this week and their trip to Minneapolis this weekend is far from scary but they have GOT to start getting W's.  

Would need a miracle:  These teams probably need to win the BTT but in theory if they won every game between now and the B1GCG they might get an at-large bid.  

• 6-10/11-13 Penn State:  
• 5-11/13-14 Maryland:  
• 5-11/12-13 Northwestern:  
• 4-12/13-12 Minnesota:  

Would need to win BTT:

• 1-14/7-19 Nebraska:  This team is just BAD.  

[MaximumSam]

I don't have too many problems with Howard's basketball coaching this year. They lost a whole team, and counting on freshmen is always fraught with peril.