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Topic: Misfits Thread

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847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1316 on: April 09, 2020, 11:30:55 AM »
I think the fundamentals of our economy are strong still. Obviously this event is causing a lot of pain for many people right now, and will for some time.

My biggest fear lies in the real estate side, and in particular office. Large offices might be a thing of the past for some companies, as they have adapted to working remote. If I were an office landlord, or had any holdings in that arena, I'd be very nervous right now. I'd also be nervous if I was a banker, with commercial loans out to office owners/developers.
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utee94

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1317 on: April 09, 2020, 11:48:01 AM »
In the long term the economy will bounce back.

In the short term things are about to get really ugly, and really fast.

The skyrocketing unemployment-- especially that of people like restaurant workers, entertainment industry, etc. who were already living paycheck to paycheck with zero savings-- is now resulting in record levels of visits to the local food banks.  In our part of Central Texas, they're basically completely out of food.  Donations of money have dropped significantly as people start worrying about their own livelihoods, donations of food are pretty much zero because nobody wants to make those deliveries/pickups, and volunteer hours have dropped to almost zero as people aren't willing to risk exposure.


Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1318 on: April 09, 2020, 12:09:25 PM »
I think the markets are looking past the terrible economic news we're going to see continuing.  This has not been as bad as it could have been.

That's my take.

SP500 up over 2% at the moment.  Up strongly for the week.  The news that took the markets down nearly 30% appears to be less serious than was believed.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 12:26:22 PM by Cincydawg »

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1319 on: April 09, 2020, 12:44:41 PM »
Yet, just yesterday morning, CNBC (duh) was running a piece that said that the current run was over. That didn't age well.

The MSM and the fear they promote has had a lot to do with what happened to the markets last month.

People are starting to see past that. At least it seems like it.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1320 on: April 09, 2020, 12:50:56 PM »
CNBC (which I use daily just to track numbers without logging on) always has opinion pieces saying the exact opposite of the other.  It's click bait.


MichiFan87

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1321 on: April 09, 2020, 12:52:49 PM »
I think the rebound over the past two weeks is just correcting the initial overreaction in March. I also don't think the SPX is going to hit 3000 before it goes below 2500 again but we'll see. The collapse of the hospitality and entertainment sectors are definitely going to have some long-term consequences.

I'm also interested to see what happens with commercial real estate. I think construction for office buildings will basically stop until companies figure out if/how much they want their employees to work remotely long-term (and/or how much employees gain in leverage to request doing more work from home).

I can tell you on the energy side, this is slowing down deployment of generation projects for wind, solar, and gas, alike, with each one similarly impacted. It could also accelerate the retirement of existing coal plants. It's also slowing down the deployment of energy efficiency projects, though.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1322 on: April 09, 2020, 12:56:03 PM »
The construction projects around us are going to full bore ahead, and there are some very large ones in progress, no signs of stoppage.

I presume they are "under contract" and can't be slowed or stopped without payments.  We walk by or near this one fairly often because the process amazes me.

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2020/1/15/21067062/midtown-atlanta-selig-1105-west-peachtree-construction

This is another big one just up the street:

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2019/11/26/20982731/midtown-union-construction-boutique-hotel-partner

MrNubbz

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1323 on: April 09, 2020, 01:03:09 PM »
 donations of food are pretty much zero because nobody wants to make those deliveries/pickups, and volunteer hours have dropped to almost zero as people aren't willing to risk exposure.
Unloaded truck/trailer this morning,sorted and itemized produce and dry goods.Pantry is open tonite and will be loading vehicles,recipients have to stay in vehichles and gloves,masks and 6 ft are firmly enforced
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

utee94

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1324 on: April 09, 2020, 01:06:55 PM »
Unloaded truck/trailer this morning,sorted and itemized produce and dry goods.Pantry is open tonite and will be loading vehicles,recipients have to stay in vehichles and gloves,masks and 6 ft are firmly enforced
That's awesome Mr. N, thanks for helping out your community!  We need about 50,000 more just like you!

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1325 on: April 09, 2020, 01:48:46 PM »
Fed Chair Powell says U.S. economy deteriorating with alarming speed



Well, no, Heather from the Washington Post, that's NOT what he said. This is an asshat headline, and more fear mongering from another rag "news"paper. This is what scares people, who take a headline and run with it. This crap has got to stop, but how??

There is no more reporting these days. Everything is an editorial.

This is what he actually said, quoted later in the article:

“People have been asked to put their lives and livelihoods on hold, at significant economic and personal cost,” Powell said in a Brookings Institution webcast. “We are moving with alarming speed from 50-year lows in unemployment to what will likely be very high, although temporary, levels.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-chair-powell-says-us-economy-deteriorating-with-alarming-speed/ar-BB12o0Ak?li=BBnbfcN


I just shot Heather an email. We'll see if I get a response. Not gonna hold my breath.
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utee94

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1326 on: April 09, 2020, 02:56:42 PM »
Yeah I'm sure she'll get right on that.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1327 on: April 09, 2020, 06:45:43 PM »
The wife and I were helping pack food boxes all afternoon for restaurant workers.  Main I am tired.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1328 on: April 09, 2020, 07:07:00 PM »
You do realize that the journalist writer of the story usually isn't responsible for the headline, right? 

MrNubbz

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #1329 on: April 09, 2020, 07:26:58 PM »
The wife and I were helping pack food boxes all afternoon for restaurant workers.  Main I am tired.
Just got back from the Food Pantry did 3hrs this morning little over two hrs tonite had I believe 12 volunteers.Each recipient received1 bag each of Dairy/meat,produce,asst'd dry goods .I believe 85 vehichles stopped.One guy who helps run the center took food to like 12 guys laid off from his shop
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

 

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