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Traffic here is way down from normal today.  I wonder if Costco today will be mobbed or empty.

I suspect they will shut it down and refund or allow you to reschedule. 

For guests scheduled to sail on or before July 31, 2020, the “Cruise with Confidence” program allows individual guests and guests in non-contracted groups booked on Royal Caribbean International (RCI) to cancel up to 48 hours prior to the vacation start date.7 days ago



Cruise with Confidence | Royal Caribbean Cruises

https://www.cruisehive.com/royal-caribbean-allows-cancellations-up-to-48-hours-prior-to-sailing-due-to-covid-19-fears/38160

The cruise lines are looking at a global stop, I suspect, and very soon.  Cruising is "nonessential".  The airlines will be clobbered but folks do have legit need to travel by air.

One of my concerns if if/when health care professionals get ill (and contagious).  I hope they have mild symptoms in the main and can continue to work, scary as that may be, if they are treating COVID patients.  Some of the "elective" or delayable treatments could slow down.

We might need even the specialists on board to help with COVID care, meaning your knee surgery would be delayed.  I don't mean to be fear mongering, just imagining what could happen if this really has spread significantly already.

The wife went two days ago for a post op check up.  Her surgeon was in a professional building up the street from us.  There is a 24/7 there on the ground floor, but everything else is some kind of specialist or PT site, so I don't think there was abnormal infection risk.  They certainly had pulled out all the stops.

I have friends who are EMTs and nurses and MDs.  One is an OB/GYN, I was chatting with him briefly on line.  He is older, 66 I think, but said he was ready to provide general service as needed, but women about to give birth also need care of course.  The OB thing has to go on.

The spread in Italy was pretty bad, but if you've ever been to Italy, well, it's different than here.

People hang out in squares all day and all night. The people are very huggy and touchy and kissy. Add in muilti-millions of tourists (including from China - lots and lots and lots go to Italy - I was shocked at first) and there is your recipe.

We're not going to hang out in squares (or arenas) now. We are not a touchy crowd. Incoming travel is all but banned.

I don't think we will see the spread like they did. I can only hope I'm right.

Their population also skews older than ours so the death rate is likely going to be higher.

And no offense intended to Italy or Italians, but to anyone who has spent much time there, it's near 3rd-world in its resources, compared to most other Western countries including the US.  I've worked there, stayed extended periods with people who lived there, and when people describe it as "The Mexico of Europe" they're not far off.  It's less affluent, and lower in resources, than many other countries in Europe. 

Not saying we won't see significant outbreak here in the US, indeed it has already begun.  But there are also many reasons to believe the death rate in the USA is going to be lower than that in Italy, even if the R0 or infection rate, and penetration to the population, is the same or similar.

Yeah France is also a more progressed country than Italy in many ways.  I expect them to fare better.

Spain on the other hand, could end up being more like Italy...

The spread in Italy was pretty bad, but if you've ever been to Italy, well, it's different than here.

People hang out in squares all day and all night. The people are very huggy and touchy and kissy. Add in muilti-millions of tourists (including from China - lots and lots and lots go to Italy - I was shocked at first) and there is your recipe.

We're not going to hang out in squares (or arenas) now. We are not a touchy crowd. Incoming travel is all but banned.

I don't think we will see the spread like they did. I can only hope I'm right.

I heard an interesting theory that it wasn't really about preventing the spread overall, but spacing it out so medical facilities weren't overwhelmed and heard immunity could develop.

Basically, most people will get it in some form, but slowing it limits the problems.