2020 Michigan Offseason Thread

[Mdot21]

I think it's frustrating for a fan base not to have a "break through year".  An NC will mask a lot of 8-5 years.  An 11-2 year with a loss to OSU is disheartening.  Grumbling starts.  Expectations and hopes and dreams etc. 

And yes, if you fire a pretty good coach in hopes of getting a great one, you risk getting a substandard coach etc.

I honestly don’t think Harbaugh’s heart is in this for the long haul. He’ll be back in the NFL before long. 

Imagine him taking control of a team as talented as the Browns? No doubt in my mind he would make them a winner.  

I don’t think you fire a guy unless you know for sure you have a better guy replacing him. Saban ain’t walking through that door. Urban isn’t walking through that door. Lincoln Riley isn’t walking through that door. I mean who would you realistically replace him with that is for sure better if you fired him? 

[Cincydawg]

This of course is the problem with firing a coach who really is doing pretty well.  Crap shoot, probably on some assistant from somewhere and FCS guy.

If you are Miss State, it can make some sense to hire The Pirate, but look at what Tennessee has gone through (and they aren't out of the woods yet), or USC, or Texas, or Nebraska.  My opinion is Dabo is the most "attractive" coach out there right now, youth, track record, recruiting, etc., and he MIGHT leave but not for Michigan.

Arkansas was a pretty decent program and has fallen so far off the map it's hard to remember that.

[Mdot21]

And Michigan is returning a bunch of talent. They have to figure out the QB battle and rebuild the OL- but it’s not like they are gonna suck next year. Probably still gonna be a 9-10 win team.

It’s not like he’s not recruiting NFL talent and it’s not like he’s going 6-6 or 5-7 here. In 5 years he’s averaging about 10 wins a season and he’s had 40 players drafted by the NFL, including 6 1st rounders. From 2005-2015 drafts Michigan only had 37 players total drafted and 5 1st rounders.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Harbaugh stabilized the program for the first time in a decade, right out of the gate. So that has to count for something.

The "big win" has eluded him obviously, as it took Juwan Howard only 3 games in order to rack up more wins vs top 10 teams than Harbaugh has in his entire Michigan coaching career. 

In order for him to be a "John Cooper" he'd need to go 2-4 vs OSU over the next six years. I suspect that most Wolverine fans would probably sign up for a guarantee of that result. As it stands Cooper had more wins in THE GAME than the last three Wolverine coaches combined. 

[ELA]

It’s not like he’s not recruiting NFL talent and it’s not like he’s going 6-6 or 5-7 here. In 5 years he’s averaging about 10 wins a season and he’s had 40 players drafted by the NFL, including 6 1st rounders. From 2005-2015 drafts Michigan only had 37 players total drafted and 5 1st rounders.

For more money and just as many CCGs appearances, let alone titles.

[bayareabadger]

it's a sinking ship. the hype has worn off and Harbaugh has lost his luster. That's gonna happen when you continually get your dick kicked in by Ohio State. 0-5.

I've been on this board over a decade, back to the late Carr era, and I'll tell you, watching the rise and fall of Michigan hype cycles is among the most educations I've had about how people consume college football. 

[bayareabadger]

Harbaugh can't beat OSU and he can't win decent road games.  But he literally never loses bad  gets games.  What is his worst loss?  At home against a 10-3 MSU team?  A meaningless Outback Bowl against South Carolina.  He doesn't have blowout losses at Purdue or Iowa.  He doesn't have losses to Pitt and Syracuse.  That 9-11 wins per year with Michigan's talent.  If you bring in someone else, who gets the same results, but beats OSU occasionally, but then drops a game at Indiana or Minnesota, is that better?  That's basically Lloyd Carr, more big wins, more bad losses, solid end result.  And yet was Carrs seat ever hot?  Different times, WAY less scrutiny.  Maybe it's a product of the CFP or bust way college football is covered now, but I remember really enjoying Michigan's 10-3 Citrus Bowl 1998 season.  That season started 0-2 (so CFP gone), and ended with a loss at OSU.  That would be a disaster now.

/unfocusedrant

I think that's a part of it, but with no satisfaction of beating OSU. Getting that extra month of self satisfaction is worth a lot.

Obviously that second part is harder to help because OSU just went supernova. In spots, there were cracks. Michigan was a road favorite in 2018 (3.5-4.5 points), even if they were a terrible matchup. The were battling in 2017 despite trash QBs and went down to the wire in 2016. But never had that extra little bit and OSU is about at its full power

But even if the success is near a level that makes sense, the optics are just not ideal
-QBs that range from a mess to modestly inconsistent
-A running game than never really feels that in control 
-Offenses that always feel like kind of a chore (though the "non-modern scheme" stuff is mostly poppycock)
-Defense that is don't-bend-sometimes-break which seems to not have that top-end gear. 

Then again, you have all that and they still win 10 games a year. If they get that QB play like 10 percent better, maybe flip a game a season and it's acceptable to most. 

Then again, if he wins three more in five years, he's got the best win percentage of anyone but Crisler, Bo and Yost. Flip five games, and he's basically at the same level of Bo and Cisler.

[Big Beef Tacosupreme]

I've been on this board over a decade, back to the late Carr era, and I'll tell you, watching the rise and fall of Michigan hype cycles is among the most educations I've had about how people consume college football.

I've been off and on since 2002 ish.  Michigan absolutely blows every other team out of the water as far as "hype cycles" are concerned.  I have no idea why that is.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

What is a hype cycle?

[bayareabadger]

What is a hype cycle?

New coach: Just you wait
Early in the tenure: Just wait until he gets his guys/his style of guys in (this happens with a good start or bad)
Middle tenure as things are somewhere in terms of sliding/rising/holding at average: I don't like this thing this coach and his staff do. They need to fix that up. 
Years 4, 5 or 6: "It's a sinking ship. the hype has worn off ... (coach) has has lost his luster. He’s just not what we thought he was."

Sometimes its faster. It works with a lot of new hires at demanding programs (there are maybe 10-12 non-demanding programs, maybe less). Works super well with young QBs who play early too and sometimes other guys. 

[Mdot21]

I've been off and on since 2002 ish.  Michigan absolutely blows every other team out of the water as far as "hype cycles" are concerned.  I have no idea why that is. 

Notre Dame says hi.

[Mdot21]

For more money and just as many CCGs appearances, let alone titles.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not happy about the way things are. And I do think he’s overpaid but they have to pay him that or he’d just go to the NFL. He’s not going to stay at Michigan out of the goodness of his heart. 

Michigan isn’t getting 5*’s out of Texas, California, and Florida. Ohio State is. Meyer is a recruiting machine. He can go anywhere and land 5*’s. Harbaugh can’t.  Meyer left and he handed Day the keys to a Pagani. Until Harbaugh starts recruiting at that level- he’ll never catch OSU. If he had better development of his talent he could close that gap a little bit. But I don’t think he ever will. 

[Cincydawg]

I've been off and on since 2002 ish.  Michigan absolutely blows every other team out of the water as far as "hype cycles" are concerned.  I have no idea why that is. 

I think Texas, ND, USC are all in the same boat, e.g., Blue Bloods down on their "luck" right now, so every season promises Return to Greatness.  Unfortunately, I THINK they have been replaced by Clemson in effect, OSU and Alabama have retained their status, Oklahoma is right there, and LSU and UGA can on occasion get into the playoffs (ND has as well).  The space on the podium is limited.

We expect to see the same three teams in the playoffs each preseason and have now for a while.  They don't always make it but they have always been very close.

If you blindly pick Bama/Clemson/OSU/OU to be the Final Four in any year you have a pretty good shot at being right.

[MaximumSam]

Michigan has a fine program, but it's tough to see how they break into that top tier.  OSU's team was as good as I've ever seen them last year, and they lost in the semifinals.  It's a land of giants out there.