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Topic: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread

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MrNubbz

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #56 on: April 27, 2020, 07:51:08 AM »
I've been off and on since 2002 ish.  
we talk football not passionate relationships.Sounds like the rest of us
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Mdot21

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #57 on: April 27, 2020, 08:01:59 AM »
Michigan has a fine program, but it's tough to see how they break into that top tier.  OSU's team was as good as I've ever seen them last year, and they lost in the semifinals.  It's a land of giants out there.
How do you break into the top tier? I feel like it starts with the coaching. LSU wasn't going anywhere, even with Joe Burrow until Ed O decided to go out and hire Joe Brady and turn over the offense to him. We all saw Burrow's first year at LSU. Was nowhere near his last year. Burrow always had it in him, but it took the coaching to put it all together and show him the way.

Not sure Gattis is an elite OC #1 and not sure Harbaugh will ever completely relinquish total control and just keep his fingers out of the offense. If you ask me those are the two biggest issues plaguing Michigan. You start developing your talent better you win more games and you get better recruits. It all goes hand in hand. Top recruits want to win and get drafted high. Urban was the master of this. He won a shit-ton and his players got drafted high. You start doing that they come to you. It's a lot easier to recruit when you're doing those two things. You really think Mr. 5* QB or WR recruit really wants to come play at Michigan after seeing a 5* #1 QB and top 4 player go undrafted in Shea Patterson or a 5* #1 WR and #10 player go in the 6th round like DPJ? Hell no.

And you really think other coaches that Michigan recruits against won't point this out to 5* QB and WR recruits? They'd be fools not to.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #58 on: April 27, 2020, 08:34:00 AM »
You break into the top tier in either of three ways, I think

1.  Everything comes together one year and your conference is bad so you go 12-0 and probably get whacked in round one (Washington).
2.  You are close year after year and suddenly that missing piece drops in your lap (LSU).
3.  You are Bama/Clemson/OSU and recruit at the top level year after year and reload despite heavy losses.

I think Michigan's shot is more Item 2 above.  They have to beat Ohio State, which might be possible after Fields moves on, and win the East and then beat Wisconsin/whoever.  At 12-1 they probably are in the dance.


Mdot21

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #59 on: April 27, 2020, 08:55:23 AM »
quick early snap shot of 2020 offense-

QB: RS Jr. Dylan McCaffrey vs. RS Soph. Joe Milton - McCaffrey most likely the guy. Milton is super talented, but super raw. If Harbaugh can't develop polished high-school QB's like Patterson- how the hell can he develop a raw one? This is going to be interesting battle because: who knows what the hell Harbaugh will do. I'd be very surprised if McCaffrey isn't the guy though.

RB: Soph. Zach Charbonnet, RS Soph. Hassan Haskins, and RS Sr. Chris Evans - 3 really good backs. Charbonnet best all-around with big NFL potential. Haskins is a between the tackles, physical battering ram with initial explosion but lacks top-end speed. Chris Evans is as shifty as they come and could probably play WR full-time- he's that good at running routes and catching the ball.

WR: leading receivers RS Jr. Nico Collins and Jr. Ronnie Bell return. The trio of frosh that played last year return as well in Cornelius Johnson, Giles Jackson, and Mike Sainistril. Freshman speedsters Roman Wilson (4.33-40) and AJ Henning (4.41-40) are coming in. Don't think the freshman will be depended on that much. Nico and Bell will get most of the targets. I expect Giles Jackson and Mike Sainistril to get a lot more time working the slot. - Even with the loss of DPJ and Tarik Black transferring- it's a talented WR room returning it's #1 and #2 statistical leaders.

TE: stat leader at TE RS Sr. Nick Eubanks returns. As does Soph. Erick All and RS Soph. Luke Schoonmaker. Lost #2 stat leading TE and #1 TE in terms of snaps on the roster- mainly because of his blocking ability in Sean McKeon. Still a decent group. Eubanks has a lot of potential.

OL: Replacing 4 starters. Going to be tough thing to do. But they do have experienced depth across the line though, so it's not like they'll be starting a bunch of true freshman and redshirt freshman out of necessity. RS Soph. Jalen Mayfield (6-5+, 315+) returns at RT after an excellent RS Frosh year, could possibly even switch over to LT. RS Soph. LT Ryan Hayes (6-7+, 300+) returns after a solid RS Frosh year in which he started 3 games and played snaps in all 13. Those are the starting tackles for sure, who plays what side- that remains to be seen. And it's a damn good young tackle tandem actually imo. Both of these guys have legitimate NFL potential.
Filling out G-C-G is where the real position battles will happen, but thankfully they'll have guys with experience battling for spots. RS JR's Chuck Filliaga (6-6, 340+) and Andrew Steuber (6-7, 330+) both have experience in the blocking scheme under Ed Warriner, both are massive human beings, and both have experience starting multiple games. Those are probably the starting guards, and probably the right choices if they want beef up front. RS Sr Andrew Vastardis and RS Jr Joel Hoeningford probably going to be the back-ups. Then there are about 5 RS Frosh that could push for back-up roles or even starting roles. RS Frosh OG/C Nolan Rumler, RS Frosh OT Trevor Keegan, RS Frosh OT/OG Trente Jones, RS Frosh OG/C Zach Carpenter, and RS Frosh OT/OG Karsen Barnhart. If Nolan Rumler can snap a football, I would love to see that dude starting at center. I think the ideal line-up would be...

LT- RS Soph. Jalen Mayfield (6-5, 315+) - best athlete of all the tackles and started every game last year
LG- RS Jr. Chuck Filiaga (6-6, 340+) - experienced, terrific run block. gigantic human being. he's started multiple games filling in for injured starters.
C- RS Fr. Nolan Rumler (6-3, 320+) - absolute mauler in HS. Got high praises from coaches and players but redshirted last year.
RG- RS Jr. Andrew Steuber (6-7, 330+) - experienced, he won the starting RT job last year until he got hurt and the RS Frosh Mayfield grabbed a hold of it. He's started multiple games filling in for injured starters.
RT- RS Soph. Ryan Hayes (6-7, 305+) - started a few games and graded out well at LT last year. Not as athletic as Mayfield but taller and longer. Might be a better fit on the right.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2020, 09:02:24 AM by Mdot21 »

MrNubbz

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #60 on: April 27, 2020, 08:55:58 AM »
OSU's team was as good as I've ever seen them last year, and they lost in the semifinals. 
As time goes by we forget but even ESPiN noted 3 things ALL going in Dabo's favor.Shaun Wade being ejected for a incidental collision.Next set of downs Clemson defender not getting called on a very flagrant helmet-helmet with Dobbins and the fumble returned for 6.After those 3 I couldn't watch the game again.Matters not as I think with a banged up Fields and Dobbins LSU at Home was prolly insurmountable
« Last Edit: April 27, 2020, 09:02:55 AM by MrNubbz »
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #61 on: April 27, 2020, 09:01:54 AM »
Ya O-Line relpacing 4 starters is a tall order I don't care who you are.As so many prospects there seem to boom or bust.Fortunately you have Warinner and I've honestly seen none better.Pretty sure DPJ saw the exodus and no reason to stay.If Collins continues on his trajectory he's a certain 1st rounder
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Mdot21

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #62 on: April 27, 2020, 09:08:27 AM »
Ya O-Line relpacing 4 starters is a tall order I don't care who you are.As so many prospects there seem to boom or bust.Fortunately you have Warinner and I've honestly seen none better.Pretty sure DPJ saw the exodus and no reason to stay.If Collins continues on his trajectory he's a certain 1st rounder
Warriner is as good as advertised. That dude is the real deal. He will get those guys ready. He made Jon Runyan Jr. a 1st team All-B1G LT. Dude was a low 3* recruit that is 6'3" with short arms and Warriner turned him into a 1st team All-B1G LT. Warriner turned a Guard into a 1st team All-B1G tackle and got him drafted by the NFL.

He'll turn Mayfield and Hayes into an excellent tackle duo. Those dudes both brimming with NFL potential and have the size and length that JR Jr. lacked, and they are both more athletic than he is too boot.

It'll take some time for them to gel, but he will get them playing right. Filliaga and Steuber are both massive humans with lot of experience and development in the system. I think they'll slide right in and be perfect fits at guard.

What concerns me most is center. There really isn't anyone there with any experience.

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #63 on: April 28, 2020, 01:13:50 PM »

Not sure Gattis is an elite OC #1 and not sure Harbaugh will ever completely relinquish total control and just keep his fingers out of the offense. If you ask me those are the two biggest issues plaguing Michigan. You start developing your talent better you win more games and you get better recruits. It all goes hand in hand. Top recruits want to win and get drafted high. Urban was the master of this. He won a shit-ton and his players got drafted high. You start doing that they come to you. It's a lot easier to recruit when you're doing those two things. You really think Mr. 5* QB or WR recruit really wants to come play at Michigan after seeing a 5* #1 QB and top 4 player go undrafted in Shea Patterson or a 5* #1 WR and #10 player go in the 6th round like DPJ? Hell no.

Aesthetically/statistically what will be the tell on that front?

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #64 on: April 28, 2020, 01:15:21 PM »
Warriner is as good as advertised. That dude is the real deal. He will get those guys ready. He made Jon Runyan Jr. a 1st team All-B1G LT. Dude was a low 3* recruit that is 6'3" with short arms and Warriner turned him into a 1st team All-B1G LT. Warriner turned a Guard into a 1st team All-B1G tackle and got him drafted by the NFL.

He'll turn Mayfield and Hayes into an excellent tackle duo. Those dudes both brimming with NFL potential and have the size and length that JR Jr. lacked, and they are both more athletic than he is too boot.
I read a tweet that pointed this out, but despite all the picks, man that unit was not statistically impressive last year. Granted, they involved sack rate, which in the modern era isn't a great metric for OL play, but the run numbers were just ho-hum. 

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #65 on: April 28, 2020, 01:43:16 PM »
I read a tweet that pointed this out, but despite all the picks, man that unit was not statistically impressive last year. Granted, they involved sack rate, which in the modern era isn't a great metric for OL play, but the run numbers were just ho-hum.
Part of that is simply because they didn't have a great running back.  Zach Charbonnet was only a freshman, and it showed.  Their best back, IMO, was sidelined with academic issues, and I believe they had another guy injured.

ZC  isn't a burner, but he's fast.  He isn't a bruiser, but he can hit the hole with force.  He isn't super shifty, but he's elusive.  He's...average.  Last year his offensive line was giving him plenty of room, and he took what he was given, but he lacked that extra something that all great backs have.

If you gave that Oline a guy like Jonathan Taylor, well, that's something scary to think about.

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #66 on: April 28, 2020, 04:18:44 PM »
Part of that is simply because they didn't have a great running back.  Zach Charbonnet was only a freshman, and it showed.  Their best back, IMO, was sidelined with academic issues, and I believe they had another guy injured.

ZC  isn't a burner, but he's fast.  He isn't a bruiser, but he can hit the hole with force.  He isn't super shifty, but he's elusive.  He's...average.  Last year his offensive line was giving him plenty of room, and he took what he was given, but he lacked that extra something that all great backs have.

If you gave that Oline a guy like Jonathan Taylor, well, that's something scary to think about.
So these are stats that look at more things that happen around the LOS, so in theory, the OL had more hand in them. Not perfect because the RB needs to not eff it up, but ideally it shows if the line if giving in the "took what he was given" framework.

The three numbers I like best:
Opportunity rate: This shows how often a run gains 5 yards. Just a clean measure of efficiency that boosts with the line's push.
Michigan was 71st
Power success rate: This takes third and fourth down of 2 or fewer yards, plus most goal line carries that close and says how often a team converts.
Michigan was 31st
Stuff rate: Percentage of carries that gain zero yards and go for loss
Michigan was 41st

There's also a number called adjusted line yards per carry, which I trust a little less but it basically doles out average credit for different parts of a run (losses are on the line, plus some, the first three yards are credited to the line, and half of the next four). The adjustment is good for some things and not others. I like it less than the others because it's a bit more all-in-one and I thought it gave some extra credit to a so-so UW line, but I might be wrong looking back.
Anyway, Michigan was 49th. 

(FWIW, UW was 22nd, 27th, 9th and 15th in those metrics last season, which was a drop off from the year before)

Mdot21

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #67 on: April 28, 2020, 06:24:06 PM »
They were starting a RS freshman at right tackle all season in Mayfield, and another RS freshman for 3 games at LT in Ryan Hayes. Their #1 RB Charbonnet was a true freshman that was dealing with injuries all-season, missed most of spring and fall and was playing hurt most of the season. So inexperience/youth was at play at both tackle spots and inexperience/injuries at RB. Charbonnet still set freshman rushing TD record with 11. He is going to become the best back that Michigan has had since Chris Perry imo. He’s got real NFL potential. 

LG Bredeson and C Ruiz were extremely good on the interior and at run blocking. Oddly enough seeing as he’s only 6’3” with short arms- LT Jon Runyan Jr was a better pass blocker than run blocker. RG Mike Onwenu could never keep his weight or conditioning in order his entire time at Michigan. Devastating run blocker when he got his hands on defender, but he consistently wore down in second half of games and during the season in his entire time at Michigan. 

I can’t say I’m thrilled about losing 4 starters on the o-line. Would’ve been a lot more ideal for the team had C Cesar Ruiz returned. No point in returning though if you’re a 1st rd pick. Take the money and run. 

Going to be interesting who they settle on at center and guard. They’ll have a really good, really promising young tackle tandem- probably the best, most NFL potential wise since they had Taylor Lewan/Mike Schofield. And they’ll have by far the best RB room in the Harbaugh era.

I really can’t wait to how the QB situation shakes out. McCaffrey v. Milton. Upside with Milton is almost unlimited. But so is the downside. Hindsight is 20/20, but they probably made the wrong move not pulling the plug on Patterson and seeing what they had in McCaffrey and Milton last year.

Mdot21

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #68 on: April 28, 2020, 06:26:19 PM »
Aesthetically/statistically what will be the tell on that front?
What will this look like? WHEN Michigan finally has a legitimate top tier offense and a QB that doesn’t suck ass and regress every single year- THEN we will know that Harbaugh has stopped meddling.

The dude needs to just stay the F out and go recruit. He was actually recruiting extremely well his first few years. His recruiting seems to have taken a major nose dive. Gee, wonder why.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: 2020 Michigan Offseason Thread
« Reply #69 on: April 28, 2020, 10:14:41 PM »
So these are stats that look at more things that happen around the LOS, so in theory, the OL had more hand in them. Not perfect because the RB needs to not eff it up, but ideally it shows if the line if giving in the "took what he was given" framework.

The three numbers I like best:
Opportunity rate: This shows how often a run gains 5 yards. Just a clean measure of efficiency that boosts with the line's push.
Michigan was 71st
Power success rate: This takes third and fourth down of 2 or fewer yards, plus most goal line carries that close and says how often a team converts.
Michigan was 31st
Stuff rate: Percentage of carries that gain zero yards and go for loss
Michigan was 41st

There's also a number called adjusted line yards per carry, which I trust a little less but it basically doles out average credit for different parts of a run (losses are on the line, plus some, the first three yards are credited to the line, and half of the next four). The adjustment is good for some things and not others. I like it less than the others because it's a bit more all-in-one and I thought it gave some extra credit to a so-so UW line, but I might be wrong looking back.
Anyway, Michigan was 49th.

(FWIW, UW was 22nd, 27th, 9th and 15th in those metrics last season, which was a drop off from the year before)
If I know Gattis, I think Evans will get the majority of the snaps next year.  He places a high value on a RB that is a great pass catcher.  

I agree that Zach C wasn't ready for the load he got as a true freshman.  Ideally he would have played about half the snaps he did and then maybe he could have stayed healthy.  I will be curious to see if ZC makes a big jump this year.  He'll be healthy, sharing the load, and have a full year of a big time college weight room training behind him.

 

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