#50 SMU Mustangs |
#6 in American |
And now we leave the Big XII, but return to Texas, where SMU had their best season since 1984, pre death penalty. The Mustangs were 8-0 and ranked #15, the visiting team when Gameday went to Memphis on November 2. They had an uneven finish, losing by one score to the Tigers, and Navy, and then a lousy performance against Florida Atlantic in the Boca Raton Bowl. So while they didn’t get the Group of Five’s New Years Six slot, which appeared possible on Halloween, the season was a success, and after his failure at Cal, I don’t think any Power Five school is coming after a 51 year old Sonny Dykes for a second shot. But as 2020 goes, he’s got some major retooling to do. At least starting quarterback Shane Buchele returns, but when Buchele lines up under center, he’s going to look around and need an armband just to remember the names of the guys around him. The Mustangs have to replace their two leading rushers, and two of their three starting receivers. Retaining Buchele is big, but finding someone to replace James Proche, and his 111 receptions, is probably not happening. T.J. McDaniel at running back and Reggie Roberson at receiver seem like the next big stars, but they have big shoes to fill. JUCO transfer Danny Gray, who flipped from TCU, and is the highest rated recruit SMU has pulled in in a decade also could be an immediate contributor. Dykes knows his stuff, the Mustangs have the best quarterback in the conference, and the line is anchored by Jaylon Thomas, the best NFL prospect in the conference. I trust it will get sorted out to some level. It’s the defense that is far more concerning, losing seven starters off a unit that allowed the fourth most ypp in the American. Their defensive “success” last year was predicated off of pressuring the quarterback, tallying easily the most sacks in the conference, with the third highest sack rate of any Group of Five team. Problem is replacing Patrick Nelson and Delontae Scott, who combined for 22 sacks and 36 tackles for loss. They were the only set of teammates in the nation to both record at least 18 tackles for loss, and one of just two sets of teammates (along with Zack Baun and Chris Orr of Wisconsin) to both have double digit sacks. They did get a little bit of instant help, from grad transfer defensive tackle Michael Williams from Stanford, but their high school recruiting didn’t get quite the quick uptick you’d hope for in such a talent rich market. Sometimes that success is too deep in the recruiting cycle (particularly now with the early Signing Day), that it takes a year for it to reflect in the interest of prospects. It’s hard to judge where a class is headed based on three prospects, but any class, particularly at this level, currently headed by a top 70 national recruit, the #4 dual threat quarterback in the nation, and easily the highest rated prospect SMU has reeled in in the 247 era, Preston Stone, is going to be pretty good. Signing Day is a long way away, but if Dykes can keep him in the fold, expect him to start Day 1 in 2021.
| KEY PLAYERS |
QB | Shane Buchele, Senior |
TE | Kylen Granson, Senior |
T | Jaylon Thomas, Junior |
| . |
DE | Turner Coxe, Junior |
LB | Richard McBryde, Senior |
LB | Delano Robinson, Senior |
#49 Missouri Tigers |
#9 in SEC |
I know the bowl ban set a damper on the season, but Missouri had WAY too much talent for the season they had. They went 6-6, without a win over a single bowl team, with losses to Wyoming and Vanderbilt, and weren’t competitive against Kentucky, Georgia or Florida. They had plenty of NFL talent, including three players who departed early, and added Kelly Bryant from Clemson. You can’t say they hadn’t bought into coach Barry Odom either, because when given the chance to transfer without penalty, prior to the season, once the penalties came out, the players didn’t. It just somehow didn’t work. The 2020 team is certainly less talented than the 2019 version, but the quick rising Eliah Drinwitz will be given time to build his program his way. The 37 year old was a position coach in the Group of Five, just six years ago, and has only one year of head coaching experience, taking Appalachian State to a 12-1 season last year. The defense lost their three best players, but return all eight other starters after allowing just 4.9 ypp last year, fourth best in the SEC. They could be even better this year, projected as the #18 SP+ defense, assuming that all of the surrounding pieces progress. They are very solid in the middle with Nick Bolton, who could be a preseason first team All-SEC linebacker. If the Tigers become a top 25ish team, he’ll be a name. Just by chance, you assume two of the other seven returning starters will take a big leap. But oh boy, the offense has some issues. The flip side to taking a senior transfer quarterback is that if it doesn’t work, as Bryant didn’t, you also have set yourself back going forward. If one is to look at what Drinkwitz ran last year at Appalachian State, it was a run heavy approach, which only attempted about 26 passes a game, the 20th most run heavy team in the country. Granted when you are running roughshod over the Sun Belt, it’s easy to lean into the run. However once he takes a look at his offensive personnel in Columbia, he may feel the same. Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie form a solid 1-2 punch at running back, with Rountree getting more the carries, at about a 63%-37% split. But Badie is a major threat as a pass catcher, with 32 receptions last year, to Rountree’s 3. The problem is those 32 receptions led the team. And from that disappointing group of receivers, they lost their top two, plus their starting tight end. It’s no coincidence that the top 4 rated players in Missouri’s 2020 recruiting class are three receivers and an all-purpose back, who may translate to a slot receiver in college. All four have a chance to see immediate playing time, at a position of need, for a new coach, installing a new offense. To replace Kelly Bryant, TCU transfer Shawn Robinson was supposed to have the spring to stake his claim to a lead, with his only competition coming from last year’s back up Taylor Powell, because redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak is still rehabbing a torn ACL, true freshman Brady Cook did not enroll early, and Lindsey Scott transferred to Nebraska. With spring being lost, it could be a wide open four man battle going into fall. I would bet on either Robinson or Cook though.
| KEY PLAYERS |
RB | Larry Rountree III, Senior |
T | Larry Borom, Junior |
G | Case Cook, Junior |
| . |
DT | Kobie Whiteside, Senior |
LB | Nick Bolton, Junior |
S | Tyree Gillespie, Senior |