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Topic: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #42 on: March 15, 2020, 03:45:21 PM »
Five years ago today I was watching UW and MSU in OT at the United Center. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #43 on: March 15, 2020, 04:16:58 PM »
Me too Maxam. Me too.

That great run, only to be derailed by Dook's officiating crew!!
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #44 on: March 15, 2020, 06:40:07 PM »
Man feel bad for Dayton

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #45 on: March 15, 2020, 08:04:27 PM »
Me too Maxam. Me too.

That great run, only to be derailed by Dook's officiating crew!!
I recall watching that game again and not thinking so much of the officials. None not the calls against UW was super egregious. And it didn’t seem like the badgers were getting knocked around that much. 

Couldn’t corral Jone and just couldn’t quite keep up the shooting at a couple spots.

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #46 on: March 15, 2020, 09:44:40 PM »
Me too Maxam. Me too.

That great run, only to be derailed by Dook's officiating crew!!
So, basically what allowed Wisconsin to win the BTT then backfired?:57:

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #47 on: March 15, 2020, 09:46:25 PM »
Per the NCAA, tOSU is currently #16 in the NET rankings so if they had just straight up used that (possible given the chaos) the Buckeyes would have gotten a date with #1 Gonzaga. 

I'm assuming a long weekend 16-team tournament would be:

  • First Round:  Tuesday
  • Quarter-Finals:  Thursday
  • Semi-Finals:  Saturday
  • Championship:  Monday

So using the current NET rankings from the NCAA's site that would have been:
Tuesday:
  • #1 Gonzaga vs #16 Ohio State
  • #8 Louisville vs #9 BYU
  • #4 SDSU vs #13 Villanova
  • #5 Baylor vs #12 Oregon
  • #2 Kansas vs #15 Seton Hall
  • #7 Michigan State vs #10 FSU
  • #3 Dayton vs #14 Arizona
  • #6 Dook vs #11 Creighton

Thursday Quarter Finals:
  • Gonzaga/tOSU vs Louisville/BYU
  • SDSU/Villanova vs Baylor/Oregon
  • Kansas/Seton Hall vs MSU/FSU
  • Dayton/Arizona vs Dook/Creighton

Saturday Semi-Finals:
  • Gonzaga/tOSU/Louisville/BYU vs SDSU/Nova/Baylor/Oregon
  • Kansas/Seton Hall/MSU/FSU vs Dayton/Zona/Dook/Creighton

Monday Championship:
  • Gonzaga/tOSU/Louisville/BYU/SDSU/Nova/Baylor/Oregon vs Kansas/Seton Hall/MSU/FSU/Dayton/Zona/Dook/Creighton

In the B1G Maryland (#18), Wisconsin (#23), and Michigan (#24) would have been barely out. 


Lunardi's fake bracket matches BracketMatrix, OSU at #17.

Normally the first team out is just robbed of a meaningful game or two, but here it would be the #7 KenPom team

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #48 on: March 16, 2020, 04:47:57 PM »
Normally the first team out is just robbed of a meaningful game or two, but here it would be the #7 KenPom team
That is the difference between the normal, 64/68 team CBB tournament and the 4-team CFP.  The 65th/69th team has no realistic shot at the NC anyway so their exclusion is irrelevant in terms of the NC and only relevant in terms of, as you put it, one or two meaningful games.  

Ohio State this year would have been well above the 65th/69th team but could very well have been the first team out in a 16 team tournament just depending on how they selected teams.  I have no illusions that Ohio State could have won a typical tournament this year.  There is no reason to believe that this year's Ohio State team could have gone six straight games without a major offensive lapse causing them to lose.  However, in a reduced 16-team, four-game tournament, maybe.  

Ohio State's path to a NC in a 16-team tournament based solely on the NET rankings would have been:
  • Gonzaga
  • Louisville/BYU
  • SDSU/Nova/Baylor/Oregon
  • Kansas/Seton Hall/MSU/FSU/Dayton/Dook/Creighton

I certainly do NOT think it would have been likely that Ohio State would have won that, but it also isn't impossible to imagine.  Michigan beat Gonzaga and the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines twice.  Louisville and BYU are good teams but not impossible.  Ohio State demolished Nova and could conceivably beat SDSU, Baylor, or Oregon.  Any of the potential CG opponents would be a tough game, but none would be completely impossible to win either.  


847badgerfan

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #49 on: March 16, 2020, 08:19:32 PM »
UW won the only championship it could possibly win this year, therefore, UW > OSU. Sweep too.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #50 on: March 16, 2020, 08:58:37 PM »
It's sort of funny how conditioned we are by sport.  Football, we are saying the #6 team had their chance, they didn't earn it.  Basketball, we lament all of the good teams left out of a 16 team field


bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #51 on: March 17, 2020, 10:36:45 AM »
So I was hoping to do this later, but no time like the present to look ahead.

Badgers are facing an expectations year. I don't like that, but I think I'll like the cut of this team. Lets look at who is leaving, coming back, joining up.

Leaving
SG Brevin Pritzl - Just an odd career. He was a four-star who missed his whole first year. Hardly mattered at all the next year, outside a small stretch where he got random minutes and didn't shoot, the skill he was supposed to be best out. Was bad enough to get benched as a sophomore, got the job back after injury and was OK. Settled into being a too-timid role player last year, and then down the stretch this year, especially after King left, suddenly became more cocky with his shot and could torch opponents out of games on occasion. Played bigger than his size and was a function third guard starter (almost 30 MPG post-king). A credit to development and he'll be missed. 

Returning starters
PG D'Mitrik Trice - Still a little small and occasionally inefficient, he's become the floor general in a big way, especially late in the year. Had robust assist numbers after King departed and generally seemed to take command. I'll be interested to see if there's another step in Year 5, but if he can play like he did the last 10 games, he'll be set there.

SG Brad Davison - Efficent shooter who does a bit of everything and is a solid, not great defender. Nut punching and flopping are issues. If he cleans up his game a little, especially as a driver, he could be special, but he was pretty good in the latter half of the season, especially with lower usage, and I imagine more of that is coming.

PF Aleem Ford - Before last year, he kind of had a spot in the rotation because he could shoot somewhat and was the only combo forward who could switch on defense. But last year, he got a little better at everything, rebounding, cutting, post ups, finishing. Still wasn't great at a lot of things, but serviceable at many. He was a staple in the closing lineups and I'd bet will be again. 

C Nate Reuvers - His offense dipped late, and his scoring was always a little over-reliant on weird pull-ups, fade-aways and some awkward post shots. Still, a ton of offense ran through him and he was pretty productive, plus he;s the more mobile center and a nice defensive anchor. More than anyone else, I think he has another level to go do, but he was pretty decent this year. 

Returning reserves
C Micah Potter - Popped on the scene and was really good shooting, rebounding, finishing, rolling to the hoop and good at shot blocking. Defense was sometimes so-so. Guessing he and Reuvers are almost never both off the floor, and if they can pair will be a big thing. I'm a little wary he can't keep up that shooting, but he's still real valuable. 

F Tyler Wahl - This kid is going to be a key reserve and maybe starter next year and a two-year starter after. He's the kind of versatile  tough combo forward that tends to come through the program. He can shoot, though he wasn't very good at it last season, can do a little posting, nose for offensive rebounding. If he gets stronger and gets that shot under control, I could see him in the closing lineup, but he'll be solid.

Trevor Anderson - He played 12 minutes a game last season, and that feels just right for him. He comes in, helps with ball-handling, provides a little extra energy. He was supposed to be a pretty good shooter, and we didn't see that, so maybe that improves. He's less important to next year's team than the year after's should he get the sixth year after missing 12 and 26 games, plus a transfer year. Hopefully he gets that.

Returning non-reserve 
C Joe Hedstrom - A guy who got a 4-for-5 walk-on deal, he played 14 minutes for a team that had only one big man, and as soon as it got a second promptly had knee surgery. I doubt he's a long term contributor and see three outcomes. 1. As an injured 7-foot 240 pounder who won't play, he either decides to give it up or transfers in hope of more PT, opening up a spot for a transfer, maybe SG, this offseason 2. He leaves after next year, opening a grad transfer spot 3. He sticks around for the duration, being a nice teammate and practice player. If he ever plays, the hope is he's an enforcer near the rim. We shall see. 

Newcomers
Guard Lorne Bowman - A tall-ish point guard who might win Mr. Basketball in Michigan. Looks like a smooth operator and future starter. I'll be interested to see what kind of shooter he is (I think OK, but that position asks a lot of shooting at UW). I think he'll have a rotation role, probably a solid one. 

G/F Johnny Davis - Another key player, he went from a good recruit to killing it his senior year. He also apparently can score at the rim and from 3. He'll come in as the only true "wing" on the roster, which could help with PT. Another guy I think will be in the rotation.

PF Ben Carlson - He's the most advanced of the true freshman bigs, but still has a lot to learn. He's a top-85 prospect and had a strong last year. With UW's front court depth, they could redshirt him, but they tend to want one more available body than needed (see Strickland, Tai), and you'd probably want one true big with his feet wet before a season where everyone leaves. I see a 50-100 minute season getting minutes here and there.

C Steven Crowl - Reports are he had a very good senior season and is a good passer. Still, I see him as more  a redshirt because of his rankings and need for the weight room. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but the team doesn't need any more bigs for next year, barring injury.

G/F Jordan Davis - An developmental wing mostly added for his brother. Maybe he becomes a good defender? Hopefully he can shoot down the road?

Biggest questions
The starting lineup?
UW has four starters returning, and unless Potter really jumps Reuvers, I'm betting he's in there. So that's Ford, Reuvers, Trice and Davison easy. The question is do they get good at pairing Potter/Reuvers and can Ford handle some wings, so they can go massive with Ford-Reuvers-Potter, or do they shy from that and go Wahl-Ford-Reuvers with Potter maybe subbing at center? I lean toward the latter, but if the former works, that's cool. 

Which freshman plays most?
This is in part a question of readiness and in part of lineup flexibility. It's going to be Bowman or Johnny Davis. If Davison takes to the No. 3 guard role (the guard who guards opposing 3s) as Pritzl did last year, I can see more Trice-Bowman-Davison looks. If not, or if Davis is really good, I can see him giving the team some more traditional SF looks. I assume both will be in the top 9 of the rotation, maybe top 8 with Anderson behind them.

The closing lineup?
This I'm not so sure about. I know Trice, Davison and either Reuvers or Potter is in there. I'd bet Ford is in there. Maybe he's not if they go two big and three perimeter, but I'm guessing its the two guards, Ford and a center. After that, I could see Wahl for that defensive versatility, or I could see one of the freshmen if they'd advanced enough and can go three perimeter as UW often prefers. 

Bonus - Is there any more roster movement?
Realistically, that means Hedstrom leaves and they add a transfer to add experience next season. If that happens, I'd like a shooting guard with an emphasis on shooting and tall enough to slide to the 3 if needed. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #52 on: March 17, 2020, 10:45:21 AM »
I can't see Hedstom leaving just yet, but you never know these days. He's not a Big Ten player, in my opinion. Of course, I don't think Anderson is either, but you do.

The latter was often too "out of control" for me. He could not help settle the offense and everything seemed herky-jerky with him on the floor.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #53 on: March 17, 2020, 11:02:27 AM »
Adam Zagoria of the NYT saying Seton Hall, UM, MSU, Maryland or Marquette are the likely landing spots for Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken, likely the top transfer on the market

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #54 on: March 17, 2020, 11:44:44 AM »
I can't see Hedstom leaving just yet, but you never know these days. He's not a Big Ten player, in my opinion. Of course, I don't think Anderson is either, but you do.

The latter was often too "out of control" for me. He could not help settle the offense and everything seemed herky-jerky with him on the floor.
I think Anderson is good enough to hold a back of the rotation role. He'll never start, but we've seen teams with a dearth of ball-handlers in our time (thinking of you last two Jordan Taylor years). If Bowman is as good as I hope, he's probably down a few minutes. The herky-jerky part was notable, but he ultimately could kinda run things and handle OK. Again, if he can get that 3-point percentage up, which I'm told is a skill, fine to have. 

Basically, I think Anderson has an acceptable floor to get some minutes. And if he's down to like 5 a game, he'll accept that. 

Hedstom, I doubt he has that floor. That might just be because he's a giant and if you can't kinda move or produce elsewhere, you're at best a blocker in the post, and I'm not sure he's even good there. Plus, with things so tight, he could open that transfer option. I could see the staff saying, "this is likely what you'll be, do you want to stay?"

Of course, if everyone returns, still probably not bad. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #55 on: March 17, 2020, 11:47:54 AM »
Adam Zagoria of the NYT saying Seton Hall, UM, MSU, Maryland or Marquette are the likely landing spots for Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken, likely the top transfer on the market
Not gonna lie, I kinda love this part where the Ivy League forces kids out after 4. Gives them a taste of something else.

His profile is also interesting, often injured, high-usage point, good shooter from 3 and Ft line, very good getting to the line at lower levels. Should be a nice stopgap. 

 

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