Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I can see giving a highly paid draftee more of a chance, but not really playing him for years, or even two years, if he's not as good as an alternative.  Maybe I am naive.

Is Stafford an example of this?  Or is he a pretty decent QB on a pretty mediocre team?

Professional teams play a substandard player because they pay him a lot when they have an alternative available who is better?

Hmmmmmmm,

Yup. Happens all the time. 
GMs don’t want to admit they were wrong and when they invest a high 1st round pick and lot of money in a player they give that player multiple opportunities to fail.

Hellz ya

Do you think you could do a pretty good job with draft talent eval and reccos if that were your primary job?

Would you want that job?

I’d love that job and hell ya I think I could do it better than 90% of GMs.
I’d pick best player available period and not for need, and I’d never reach for a player or make stupid trades to move up for a mediocre QB like Bears did to grab Tribusky. I’d also trade down every single time if there wasn’t a player at my pick that I thought was worth it. 
NFL GMs over think this stuff and they take way too many risks on players with serious flaws that they think their coaches can just fix. 

I enjoyed the movie "Draft Day" with Costner more than I thought I would.  Watched it on a flight to Paris.

Do you think you could do a pretty good job with draft talent eval and reccos if that were your primary job?

Would you want that job?

Depends on the owner.  I wouldn't work for Jerry Jones if another job was available.  Not that I dislike him or anything, but if I'm the GM, then I need to be the GM.  Meddling owners can capsize a franchise faster than any bad pick or trade can.
A top draft pick will be given every opportunity to succeed or fail.  In fact, you give him enough playing time so that he proves he's a failure, because the last thing you want is to give up on a guy too early, have him switch teams, and then kick butt wearing someone else's colors.
That's all the draft really is, round by round, a list of new players in order of how much opportunity each will be given.  The 5th round guy may do nothing wrong and still get cut, while big-time #1 will get the chance to fail over and over and still be valued.

One glaring inefficiency in the NFL talent evaluation process is the same thing specified in "Moneyball" - NFL GMs want guys who look good in jeans.  They want the 6'4" guy over the 6'1" guy every time.  They want the 4.4 guy over the 4.6 guy EVERY time.  

I bet I could draft a team of free-agents that were unsexy and beat an NFL GM's talented, potential-laden team he takes from free agency.  
Jerry Rice ran a 4.71.  3rd WR taken behind Eddie Brown.
Emmitt Smith ran a 4.6.  2nd RB taken behind Blair Thomas (4.4).  

These are obviously special cases, but there's so much more to being a great WR than how fast you run 40 yards.  We say we all know that, GMs say they know that, and yet when a guy runs an especially fast 40, to this day, he "moves up the big board" and gets on some team's radar, suddenly.


At least speed is a functional skill.  Size isn't, necessarily.  The case of Aaron Donald is interesting.  Everyone was down on him because he was short.  Ignore his utter dominance at Pitt.  People were crapping on him left and right...and then he ran the fastest 40 for a DT ever.  Ohhh, now he's sexy again!   

It's nearly just nonsense, the whole thing.  To miss so often, to be wrong with such enthusiasm, the draft and its coverage and what GMs value seems little more like mental masturbation.