Idk, it's easy to say he shouldn't be the #1 pick, because almost no one should. Like saying he probably won't be a good NFL QB, because almost no one will be. Safe to say these things.
If I had the #1 pick, I'd trade down, no matter what year it was, who I could get, or what team I am. If you earned the #1 pick, one player isn't going to turn things around.