2020 Michigan State Offseason Thread

[Honestbuckeye]

True.   But I would not assume that we’re not going to see improvement, possibly meaningful improvement, in their offense. I expect to see a lot of improvement in a number of different aspects of different teams around the conference    

[medinabuckeye1]

True.  But I would not assume that we’re not going to see improvement, possibly meaningful improvement, in their offense. I expect to see a lot of improvement in a number of different aspects of different teams around the conference   

Fair point and I have acknowledged that their offense appears to be better this year than it was last year.  That said, that is a REALLY low bar.  

[Anonymous Coward]

True.  But I would not assume that we’re not going to see improvement, possibly meaningful improvement, in their offense. I expect to see a lot of improvement in a number of different aspects of different teams around the conference   

This is easily true. In fact, we've already seen consistent improvement this year. I know there's a lot of hand-wringing about the loss, but the ASU was a far better game for the offense than the Tulsa game, which approximated the worst case scenario.

[CatsbyAZ]

If you are MSU, I think you want to keep Dantonio if your priority is program health but you want Dantonio to retire ASAP if your priority is not blemishing the legacy of MSU's best ever coach. And when it comes to picking between a program or a guy, I think you pick the program; MSU needs to keep Dantonio. I'm not sure it'll be up to MSU, though. What are the odds Dantonio is just staying long enough to take the MSU wins record and earn his $4+ million bonus in January? That's not a sure thing, but those odds also aren't small.

Long term, Michigan State DOES NOT need to keep Dantonio. My argument is NOT to fire Dantonio but rather begin laying the groundwork and taking the slow steps to be fully shed of Dantonio within about three years or else face a lost decade like Tennessee with Fulmer and Florida State with Bowden.

The uphill battle faces two internal realities:

- Dantonio’s current contract runs through 2023, which is fine as long as the AD has the guts to (deservedly) refuse anymore contract extensions which is the single biggest leverage the AD has.

- The AD doesn’t have the guts to do this because in hiring Beekman, MSU hired a nice guy and a company man who won’t rock the boat or challenge the establishment.

For all the success with the defense, once over half the starters are gone next year (7 Seniors on D + QB and half the OL) then where is MSU at? On paper, one of the worst teams in the B10 next year.

What I can’t predict is whether Dantonio is stubborn enough to charge on despite the high risk of another 3-9 season, or whether Dantonio is introspective enough to do all of East Lansing the favor of recognizing his expired shelf life come season’s end.

I don’t blame Dantonio for taking 2019 head on given the stacked defense, senior QB, and schedule. But now losing to an Arizona State that scared nobody, everything is on life support. For the sake of moving on from Dantonio, I think Harbaugh taking the Spartans to the woodshed would make MSU’s circumstances a lot easier to address.

[Honestbuckeye]

And what if Dantonio takes Harbaugh to the woodshed?

[Anonymous Coward]

And what if Dantonio takes Harbaugh to the woodshed?

It's by far the biggest stakes game for Harbaugh this year. And would take some heat of Dantonio.

Still, winning that wouldn't change MSU's program. Granted, beating Michigan this year (by any margin) would absolutely rejuvenate Dantonio's legacy. And it would decimate the Michigan fanbase. At the program level, though, MSU is averaging the same quality of team for the last three seasons, 7-5 quality. And that's in the backdrop of recruiting getting worse fast. Winning the Michigan game one time can't revolutionize that.

[Anonymous Coward]

Long term, Michigan State DOES NOT need to keep Dantonio.

I think there's a conflict here. That the offensive staff needs to change, and Dantonio will never do that. But the defense is this precious thing, perhaps #1 in the country and vastly overachieving relative to recruiting rankings, and this is not something the next coach is likely to maintain. Ideally, you'd keep Dantonio but force him into conditions -- change the offensive staff, up the recruiting game, and build a 2-3 year strategy for handing over the program. That would be a sincerely positive way forward. But it seems impossible; counter to Dantonio, and the new (interim?) AD may not be up to the challenge. And if Dantonio isn't strong-armed to change, the alternatives seem like more of the 7-5 business (with Dantonio, as is) or starting over at a lower level without him. These were my points when saying the AD needs Dantonio right now.

[FearlessF]

no AD needs any coach long term or shouldn't, coaches come and go

7-5 with a win over Michigan is a much different world than 6-6 with a loss to Michigan

[bayareabadger]

Long term, Michigan State DOES NOT need to keep Dantonio. My argument is NOT to fire Dantonio but rather begin laying the groundwork and taking the slow steps to be fully shed of Dantonio within about three years or else face a lost decade like Tennessee with Fulmer and Florida State with Bowden.

The uphill battle faces two internal realities:

- Dantonio’s current contract runs through 2023, which is fine as long as the AD has the guts to (deservedly) refuse anymore contract extensions which is the single biggest leverage the AD has.

- The AD doesn’t have the guts to do this because in hiring Beekman, MSU hired a nice guy and a company man who won’t rock the boat or challenge the establishment.

For all the success with the defense, once over half the starters are gone next year (7 Seniors on D + QB and half the OL) then where is MSU at? On paper, one of the worst teams in the B10 next year.

What I can’t predict is whether Dantonio is stubborn enough to charge on despite the high risk of another 3-9 season, or whether Dantonio is introspective enough to do all of East Lansing the favor of recognizing his expired shelf life come season’s end.

I don’t blame Dantonio for taking 2019 head on given the stacked defense, senior QB, and schedule. But now losing to an Arizona State that scared nobody, everything is on life support. For the sake of moving on from Dantonio, I think Harbaugh taking the Spartans to the woodshed would make MSU’s circumstances a lot easier to address.

Forgive me if I'm missing something, but I don't totally get the level of aggression being applied to sending this coach on his way with some level of haste. 

I mean, if he wins seven games, he's got MSU going at its average the past 40 years. That's not ideal, but it won't kill you. The idea he's simply expired seems to a degree conjecture, the same way Iowa and Wisconsin fans in the late 2000s would endlessly bicker about how their team was rising or the other team wasn't. 

There's also the odd implication that Dantonio's departure solves something. If he leaves, and you hand "one of the worst teams in the B10" with almost no incoming recruiting class to a new coach, this is some kind of improvement? Seems spurious. 

In the end, the focus is often on being unhappy NOW, and focusing on getting one guy out rather than the actual question of getting a guy in. 

You mention Fulmer and Bowden. Bowden had a dip off the run of top-5 finishes, which was gonna happen. It didn't get really troubling until 2005, when they went 8, 7, 7, 9, 7 wins, and it didn't cost much because they turned around to win 78 games in the seven years after. Fulmer's lost decade was kinda just two losing seasons sandwiched around 19 wins in two years. The bottom fell out after, after one weird coaching tenure, one terrible hire, the Butch Jones experience, which gets its own post, and now an amoral creep who doesn't know what asparagus is. 

Getting rid of Dantonio only helps if you don't mess up what's next. There they have three paths.
1. Stay in the program - Keep continuity, hire Tressell or someone. It might maintain the good things, maybe helps the bad.
2. Try to hold onto the identity - Seems the least likely because if you want defense-first, more developer than recruiter, might as well just stay in house.
3. Break the mold, go opposite, get an offensive guy - It's the thing that will make for the most hopeful first two years and also drops the thing that made MSU successful. 

If they think they have that next guy, make a move. But I wouldn't buy into the expired coach unless there's actual rumblings of him slacking off or losing fire. 

(The interesting thing would be that MSU's offense is so bad, one could maybe go some different directions with it. I know they want ball control, could they fulfill my option dreams? Maybe Matt Canada if someone could stand him? The issue is there are very few pro-style OCs coming up. They just don't make many of them. Of course, they have a pro-style OC who was successful enough at MSU to get a better job, but who knows if that actually works out?)

[Anonymous Coward]

Good post, BAB. Re: signs/rumors of slacking off, does shuffling the chairs on O count? I'd say it doesn't mean that for sure, but it comes close (is at least consistent with the idea of prioritizing coaching with his friends until he retires, which may happen when he earns the contract bonus in mid-January. Arguably not a fiery try-hard finish).

[MrNubbz]

Getting rid of Dantonio only helps if you don't mess up what's next. There they have three paths.
1. Stay in the program - Keep continuity, hire Tressell or someone. It might maintain the good things, maybe helps the bad.
2. Try to hold onto the identity - Seems the least likely because if you want defense-first, more developer than recruiter, might as well just stay in house.
3. Break the mold, go opposite, get an offensive guy - It's the thing that will make for the most hopeful first two years and also drops the thing that made MSU successful.

Some good points,what's frosted Sparty fans are the last 3 season nothing resembling improvement or insight has been achieved from the Offensive side of the ball.Can't say as I blame them,from a conference perspective their Offense was 13th in 2018,10th in 2017,12th in 2016.It's time to change some coaches so MD simply says - you change with him,you change with him,you change with him.......It's like Einstein said "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

[847badgerfan]

(The interesting thing would be that MSU's offense is so bad, one could maybe go some different directions with it. I know they want ball control, could they fulfill my option dreams? Maybe Matt Canada if someone could stand him? The issue is there are very few pro-style OCs coming up. They just don't make many of them. Of course, they have a pro-style OC who was successful enough at MSU to get a better job, but who knows if that actually works out?)

Depending on how the season plays out, I think Joe Rudolph will be looked at. Probably not by an MSU-level school though. 

[CatsbyAZ]

And what if Dantonio takes Harbaugh to the woodshed?

Michigan State beating Michigan again makes the Dantonio wane more polarizing between the types of Spartans fans with different expectations. On one hand there’s a more casual base that’s perfectly content with Dantonio achieving 7-5 bowl seasons especially if he’s beating Michigan, which he is: 2-2 so far Vs Harbaugh. On the other hand there’s the more intense fans who by taking the approach of an analyst (often on message boards, or, if you’re Valenti on 97.1 The Ticket, ranting to no end) that demands accountability for why Dantonio’s 65-16 success from 2010-2015 has since flat-lined into a 22-19 stretch.

Both groups will revel in another win over the Wolverines, which I have no doubt can easily happen this year given the high motivation MSU brings to the Paul Bunyan rivalry every year. Where both segments of fans will differ is that the former “casuals” will see no reason to question anything else that went wrong this season in light of beating Michigan. The more intense “analyzers” will take the win but only within the context of enjoying a bright spot as consolation for being knocked out of the Rose Bowl race by Halloween.

[CatsbyAZ]

Dantonio deserves full blame for the cavalcade of errors Saturday, and several program decisions he's made in previous seasons.  But, they might be the best defense in the nation two years in a row.  Narduzzi isn't working at Pitt, Barnett is about to get fired at FSU, maybe Tressell takes over, but my bet is it's all Dantonio, and we'll figure that out when he's gone.

He might retire after this year.  He'll have the record, and MSU loses a TON this offseason.  Next year could be rough.

I'm not the only one wondering whether Narduzzi isn’t worth considering for MSU’s post-Dantonio future. From Matt Charboneau of the Detroit News this week: (https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/michigan-state-university/2019/09/18/michigan-state-mailbag-what-mark-dantonios-future-spartans/2363010001/):

Q: Who is on your short list to replace Dantonio after this season?

A: Let’s just jump in and start the speculation, eh? OK, I’ll bite, but only kinda. I’m sure Dantonio will push to be allowed to essentially name his successor, and if he does, I’d be surprised if it isn’t Mike Tressel. Of course, he doesn’t have head-coaching experience, so that will be a knock. Outside of that, I think Pat Narduzzi still has some juice, even with some struggles at Pittsburgh. Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell likely would be on that list and how about Eastern Michigan’s Chris Creighton? No way a bigger program’s not coming for him.

Narduzzi would be a “safe hire” (much like Pelini at Nebraska was at the time) and he would appeal to the “casuals” who would get what they’d come to expect with Dantonio – defense, defense, defense; he’s learned the ropes as a head coach, and as for first few seasons going 28-24, nobody’s time at Pittsburgh goes great. But people do leave Pitt to do better jobs elsewhere – Chryst’s 19-19 record has translated to 42-12 in four seasons in Madison.

On the other hand I can completely agree with the arguments against Narduzzi, namely the predictable offense, to which I’d say, maybe by then you’ll have an AD that can somewhat convince Narduzzi to let a better minded OC to centralize control of game-planning and offensive style.