2019 Michigan Season Thread

[Brutus Buckeye]

It was nice of Harbaugh to take the spotlight off of Scott Frost, and Nebraska's inability to live up to preseason expectations in the early going. 

[Cincydawg]

I think, other than from me, expectations of Nebraska were relatively temperate as compared with those for Michigan.

I of course had the two of them in Indy with Nebraska winning.  Did I really think that?  Sort of, I was trying to be different, and that is one of my skills usually, trying.

Nebraska is 3-1 with a close loss at Colorado (who is 3-1 with a close loss at AFA) and a close win at Illinois.  They might be gelling at the right time, but probably their jello is about to be hammered into small pieces.

[FearlessF]

The last seven Ohio State teams finished:

• 13-1
• 12-2
• 11-2
• 12-1
• 14-1
• 12-2
• 12-0

No team is going to do very well against that. 

you are correct, sir
but if Michigan would have won 3 of the 7 the records may have looked like this:

13-1
11-3
10-3
12-1
14-1
11-3
12-0
still very impressive, but this is what M fans would like

[847badgerfan]

• UW has quietly assembled a fascinating defensive front. People are calling it a 2-4-5, and I think that's right. Superficially, it resembles a 4-3, but the inside guys like Loudermilk are SDE sized, and the  outside guys are LB sized (< 240lbs). That makes their success remarkable, because they looked around the country, said "nah, you don't need that many true DL up front" and it's actually working. I wonder if that'll catch on. I'm betting it will.

UW knows that there are never going to be any 5* DT's knocking on the door, and those 5* DT's run like 3-4* DE's do. So you get those 3-4* DE's, put them in the strength program, and turn them into DT's that can run. OLB is a little different, but the starters now were a QB (Baun) and a DE (IG-M) in HS. For a program like UW is, talent evaluation and development are the keys.

I have noticed on major thing under PC: The kids he's getting are much faster than what UW was used to getting.

[medinabuckeye1]

you are correct, sir
but if Michigan would have won 3 of the 7 the records may have looked like this:

13-1
11-3
10-3
12-1
14-1
11-3
12-0
still very impressive, but this is what M fans would like

I get that, just pointing out that a rival is never a constant so just saying that Coach X beat the rival more than he lost to them while Coach Y lost to them more than he beat them can be highly misleading.  

Your example illustrates this point very well.  Suppose that Michigan was 3-4 against tOSU over the last seven years.  That is obviously less than .500 but 3-4 against those Ohio State teams wouldn't really be bad at all.  In fact it would be VERY good.  The three wins (your example) would have come against teams that finished a combined 32-9 while the four losses would have come against teams that finished a combined 51-3.  

[SuperMario]

  

On the other hand we may want to just chill out as fans because we have this tendency to over react to games like this. When things look great there never really is good as they look for a college football team, and when things look bad they’re usually not as bad as they look.

Wisconsin is clearly fantastic, and maybe Michigan is working their way up to that slowly. Who knows?

I don't think it's necessarily one game, but this team under JH, not showing up for big games. They gave up 62 to the Buckeyes and looked hopeless in the bowl game. First opportunity to make a statement after a terrible showing against Army and they show up with no energy and quite frankly, awful play calling in key situations.  

If we're being honest, they weren't that impressive vs Middle Tennessee either. 

Lastly, when you're paid the type of money Harbaugh is paid, Nick Saban money, being completely embarrassed by Ohio State and then Wisconsin doesn't sit well. 

[MrNubbz]

Bo won more than 9 games per season. He won 10 or more games 12 times in his 21 years at Michigan. He had a 4 year stretch where he only lost 3 games in 4 years. He went 41-3-1 from '71-'74.
. He was a model of consistency, won a ton of games, and he beat Ohio State more than he lost to Ohio State.

Well sort of he had a winning record vs Woody but a losing one vs Earl

[Cincydawg]

Best case, realistically, I think, if UM gets it together:
Rutger - Win
Iowa -Win
@ Ill -Win
@ Penn State - Win
ND - Loss
@ UMd - Win
MSU - Win
@ IND - Win
OSU - Loss


9-3 obviously, disappointing, but hardly terrible, a Citrus Bowl maybe against Florida again?

[FearlessF]

Your example illustrates this point very well.  Suppose that Michigan was 3-4 against tOSU over the last seven years.  That is obviously less than .500 but 3-4 against those Ohio State teams wouldn't really be bad at all.  In fact it would be VERY good.  The three wins (your example) would have come against teams that finished a combined 32-9 while the four losses would have come against teams that finished a combined 51-3. 

regardless of your rivals strength, 51-3 or even Bama good or mid 90's Huskers dominant

going 2-14 vs Ohio State in the last 16 games is going to have the fan base unhappy

maybe it would be considered a huge upset, but you better pull a couple upsets if that's the case

[MrNubbz]

Best case, realistically, I think, if UM gets it together:
Rutger - Win
Iowa -Win
@ Ill -Win
@ Penn State - Win
ND - Loss
@ UMd - Win
MSU - Win
@ IND - Win
OSU - Loss


9-3 obviously, disappointing, but hardly terrible, a Citrus Bowl maybe against Florida again?

M has PSU in HV the Lions are the lean IMO,right now.Could be a brutal stretch - this is what JH is paid for to get things on the right path

[Cincydawg]

2018/11/24  Alabama   52  -  Auburn    21 W  
2017/11/25  Alabama   14  -  Auburn    26 L  
2016/11/26  Alabama   30  -  Auburn    12 W  
2015/11/28  Alabama   29  -  Auburn    13 W  
2014/11/29  Alabama   55  -  Auburn    44 W  
2013/11/30  Alabama   28  -  Auburn    34 L  
2012/11/24  Alabama   49  -  Auburn     0 W  
2011/11/26  Alabama   42  -  Auburn    14 W  
2010/11/26  Alabama   27  -  Auburn    28 L  
2009/11/27  Alabama   26  -  Auburn    21 W  
2008/11/29  Alabama   36  -  Auburn     0 W  

2007/11/24  Alabama   10  -  Auburn    17 L  
2006/11/18  Alabama   15  -  Auburn    22 L  
2005/11/19  Alabama   18  -  Auburn    28 L  
2004/11/20  Alabama   13  -  Auburn    21 L  
2003/11/22  Alabama   23  -  Auburn    28 L  
2002/11/23  Alabama    7  -  Auburn    17 L 

If this is a somewhat comparable rivalry, Bama is 8-3 over the last 11.  It changes prior to that obviously.  Going 3-8 has to be marginal, but then Bama has been Bama.

[Cincydawg]

Yeah, I'm not predicting a win in HV, I see it as a better shot than against the ND I saw Saturday and Ohio State.

[Mdot21]

Lastly, when you're paid the type of money Harbaugh is paid, Nick Saban money, being completely embarrassed by Ohio State and then Wisconsin doesn't sit well.

Amen. He's paid WAY too much money for these kinds of results. I say fire him and offer Urban Meyer like $15 million a year. Call up Stephen Ross and ask for a blank check.

[Cincydawg]

Or, you could hire me, for say a million even a year, and probably get to 8-4.  Maybe 7-5.

I'd bet a LOT cheaper per win.