2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

For review the tiers are (with net upsets):

• UMD
• IL+2, UW+2, PSU+1, MSU
• IA+1, tOSU, IU, RU-1, M-2, MN-2, PU-3
• blank
• UNL+2, NU

Last night's Wisconsin win in Ann Arbor was an upset so here are the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds and match-ups:

• 16-4/26-5 Maryland
• 13-7/21-10 Illinois
• 13-7/20-11 Wisconsin
• 13-7/22-8 Penn State
• 12-8/20-11 Michigan State
• 12-8/21-10 Iowa
• 11-9/21-10 Ohio State
• 10-10/19-12 Michigan
• 10-10/20-11 Indiana
• 9-11/18-13 Rutgers
• 9-11/16-15 Purdue
• 8-12/14-16 Minnesota
• 3-17/8-23 Nebraska
• 1-19/6-24 Northwestern

The tiebreakers are:
For the three way tie for 2nd/3rd/4th at 13-7, the first tiebreaker is H2H2H:

• 2-0 Illinois (does not host either but won in State College and Madison)
• 1-1 Wisconsin (does not host PSU nor visit Champaign, won in State College, lost at home to IL)
• 0-2 Penn State (does not visit either but lost at home to both)

For the two-way tie for 5th/6th at 12-8, the first tiebreaker is H2H:

• 1-0 Michigan State, does not visit Iowa City
• 0-1 Iowa, does not host MSU

For the two-way tie for 8th/9th (this only determines jersey color in the 8/9 game), the first tiebreaker is H2H:

• 1-0 Michigan, does not visit Bloomington
• 0-1 Indiana, does not host Michigan

For the two-way tie for 10th/11th at 9-11 the first tiebreaker is H2H:

• Both are projected to finish 1-1:  Rutgers won in Picastaway and Purdue is projected to win in West Lafayette next weekend.  

Thus we move to the second tiebreaker, record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, etc.  The first of those is 16-4 Maryland:

• Both are projected to go 0-season against the Terps

Next is record against the three 13-7 teams (PSU, IL, UW):

• 3-3 Rutgers:  They play all three twice each and are projected to win the three home games and lose the three road games.  
• 1-4 Purdue:  They only play PSU once and lost at home.  They also lost at home to IL.  Other than that they are projected to win the home game and lose the two road games.  

Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 11:

• #11 Purdue vs #14 Northwestern, 930pm, BTN
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Nebraska, 6pm, BTN

Thursday, March 12:

• #5 Michigan State vs MN/UNL, 230pm, BTN
• #6 Iowa vs PU/NU, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Rutgers, 630pm, BTN
• #8 Michigan vs #9 Indiana, noon, BTN

Friday, March 13:

• #1 Maryland vs M/IU, noon, BTN
• #2 Illinois vs tOSU/RU, 630pm, BTN
• #3 Wisconsin vs IA/PU/NU, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Penn State vs MSU/MN/UNL, 230pm, BTN

Saturday, March 14:

• UMD/M/IU vs PSU/MSU/MN/UNL, 1pm, CBS
• IL/tOSU/RU vs UW/IA/PU/NU, 330pm, CBS

Sunday, March 15:

• UMD/M/IU/PSU/MSU/MN/UNL vs IL/tOSU/RU/UW/IA/PU/NU, 330pm, CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

I haven't been on this site much since the transition but came here specifically for Medina's breakdowns and projections, they are great.

Thank you!

Medina, didn't you used to put together a chart as well that showed the likely impact of the schedule on the standings as well?

I did, but it was posted way back early in the season.  Here is the chart:

What you are looking at there:
The columns, L->R are:

• Team:  The team in question
• noAway:  A team that they do not play on the road
• ditto
• ditto
• noHome:  A team that they do not host
• ditto
• ditto
• RR-W:  Projected total wins in a full, 26-game double-round-robin
• RR-L:  Projected total losses in a full, 26-game double-round-robin
• miss-W:  Missed games (columns 2-7) that would be projected wins  
• miss-L:  Missed games (columns 2-7) that would be projected losses
• Proj-W:  Projected wins on their actual 20-game schedule
• Proj-L:  Projected losses on their actual 20-game schedule
• RR-%:  Winning percentage of columns 8 and 9 (projected double-round-robin record)
• Proj%:  Winning percentage of columns 12 and 13 (projected actual schedule)
• Diff:  The difference between column 14 and column 15

Ie, the last column on the right is a measure of how favorable or unfavorable the team's schedule was.  I sorted by that column.  As you can see, Michigan and Purdue had the most favorable schedules while Maryland had the least favorable schedule with MN, RU, and IU right behind them.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Feb is my favorite month.  Mr. Medina, is it time to lock it up?

Yes!  I think that both Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin locked up bids last night which brings us to an update on that list:

7 Locks (added tOSU, IL, and UW):

• 23-5/13-4 Maryland
• 21-7/11-6 Penn State
• 19-9/11-6 Michigan State
• 19-9/11-6 Illinois
• 19-9/10-7 Iowa
• 19-9/9-8 Ohio State
• 18-10/11-6 Wisconsin

1 Should be in (down three for the promotions of IL, tOSU, and UW):

• 18-10/9-8 Michigan

2 Work to do (no change):

• 18-11/9-9 Rutgers
• 18-10/8-9 Indiana

2 Significant work to do (no change):

• 15-14/8-10 Purdue
• 13-14/7-10 Minnesota

2 need to win BTT (no change):

• 7-21/2-15 Nebraska
• 6-21/1-16 Northwestern

First I want to address the three new locks:
Illinois and Ohio State both won road games against bad teams last night (NU and UNL respectively).  IMHO that locked up bids for both because it did three things:

• It improved their overall records to 19-9 which improves their worst-case-scenario's to 19-13.  That is enough.  
• It was likely the last possible bad loss for either team.  Illinois' remaining schedule is vsIU, @tOSU, vsIA while Ohio State's is vM, vIL, @MSU.  None of those would be bad losses and both are now EXTREMELY unlikely to have to play on Wednesday in Indy so they will not take a bad loss in the BTT either.  
• It improved their conference records.  Illinois is now guaranteed to finish above .500 in the league while Ohio State can do no worse than 9-11.  Ohio State has a better OOC so I see that as about even.  

Wisconsin picked up a nice quality win in Ann Arbor.  That and the fact that they can do no worse than 11-9 in this league locked up a bid for them.  


Now to address the five B1G teams on the bubble:
18-10/9-8 Michigan:  The Wolverines may already be a lock.  There is a good case to be made for that.  However, their worst case scenario is to finish 18-14 overall and on a five-game losing streak including a home loss to Nebraska and a likely bad loss to Nebraska or Northwestern on Wednesday in Indy.  That is too close for me to call it a lock.  

18-11/9-9 Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights have now lost three straight, four out of five, and six out of eight to drop into a tenuous situation.  Their worst-case-scenario is to finish 18-14 overall and on a six-game losing streak likely including a bad loss to Nebraska or Northwestern on Wednesday in Indy.  Additionally, their OOC was not as strong as Michigan's so they don't have that to fall back on.  I think they need one more win but their last two regular season games are hosting Maryland next week and visiting Purdue next weekend so they might need a BTT win to make it.  

18-10/8-9 Indiana:  The Hoosiers have lost six of their last nine and I do not think that they have enough wins yet.  Their OOC was typically weak and their worst-case-scenario is 18-14 overall and on a five-game losing streak likely including a bad loss to Nebraska or Northwestern on Wednesday in Indy.  

15-14/8-10 Purdue:  The Boilermakers got a much needed win last night and I'm sure that @bwarbiany is far from the only Purdue fan who just loved achieving the sweep over Indiana.  That said, prior to that win they lost four straight and their worst-case-scenario is 15-17 which obviously wouldn't get them in.  The problem for Purdue isn't the quality of the losses, most of them were pretty "good".  The problem is the quantity.  They have 14 losses and the most ever for an at-large team was 15.  Unless Purdue wins the BTT (in which case it would be irrelevant due to the auto-bid), they will finish with at least 15 losses.  Additionally, the Boilermakers cannot finish above .500 in the league.  If they lose in Iowa City next week they'll drop to just .500 overall and they'll need to beat Rutgers at home and win at least one BTT game just to finish .500 overall (17-17 with a L @IA, W vsRU, W BTT, LBTT).  I do NOT think that would be enough so they either need to win their last two regular season games and one BTT game or else go on a run in Indy.  

13-14/7-10 Minnesota:  The Gophers have the same problem as Purdue, too many losses.  Their last three regular season games are @UW this weekend, @IU next week, and vUNL next weekend.  They *MIGHT* be able to get in with 16 losses but that would still require winning two out of those last three.  That would get them to 15-15 heading into the BTT and they would still need a nice run in Indy.  If they could win their last three that would put them in a MUCH better situation at 16-14 where 1-1 in the BTT *MIGHT* do it and 2-1 almost certainly would.  

[medinabuckeye1]

The B1G Regular Season Title:
As noted above, Maryland clinches a share of the title with a win at home over Michigan State.  They would clinch an outright title with a win and losses by PSU (@IA), IL (vIU), and UW (vMN).  

Iowa can only win a share if: 

• They win out (vPSU, vPU, @IL), and 
• Maryland loses out (vMSU, @RU, vM), and 
• Michigan State loses at least one more game (@PSU, vtOSU), and
• Wisconsin loses at least one more game (vMN, vNU, @IU)

Thus, Iowa will be eliminated this weekend if they lose OR Maryland wins.  

This weekend's games and their impact on the B1G and NCAA races:


Penn State at Iowa, Saturday at noon on BTN:  Both are locks so this only impacts seeding in the NCAA.  As far as the B1G race, PSU needs a win to keep alive any realistic chance of catching Maryland to tie for the B1G regular season title.  

We project an Iowa win.  If Penn State wins instead that moves them up to 14-4 and alone in second place.  It moves Iowa down to 11-9 and tied with Ohio State for 6th/7th (Iowa would win the tie, no game in Columbus).  

Michigan State at Maryland, Saturday at 8pm on ESPN:  Both are locks so this only impacts seeding in the NCAA.  As far as the B1G race, everybody chasing the Terps needs an MSU win.  With a win the Terps would clinch at least a share of the regular season title and eliminate Iowa and MSU from contention for that.  Additionally, if PSU loses earlier at Iowa then they would be eliminated by a Maryland win as well.  That would leave only Illinois and Wisconsin in contention and even they would need to win out and have Maryland lose their last two games (@RU, vsM).  

We project a Maryland win.  If MSU wins instead that would move them up to 13-7 and tied with IL, UW, and PSU for 2nd/3rd/4th/5th.  Maryland would fall to 15-5 but still alone in first place.  

Indiana at Illinois, Sunday at 2pm on BTN:  Indiana needs wins but their last two are home games (MN, UW) so I do NOT think this is a "must win" for them.  That said, it would obviously REALLY help.  

We project an Illinois win.  If Indiana wins instead that would move them up to 11-9 and tied with tOSU for 7th/8th.  It would move Illinois out of the three-way tie for 2nd/3rd/4th and into a three-way tie with MSU and IA for 4th/5th/6th.  

Michigan at Ohio State, Sunday at 4pm on CBS:  Michigan would absolutely lock up a bid with a win.  

We project an Ohio State win.  If Michigan wins instead they would take over Ohio State's spot at 11-9 and alone in 7th place while Ohio State would fall into Michigan's spot at 10-10 and tied with Indiana for 8th/9th.  

Northwestern at Nebraska, Sunday at 415pm on BTN:  Neither can make the NCAA without winning the BTT.  

We project a Nebraska win.  If the Cornhuskers do win that would nearly lock up 13th place for them and 14th for Northwestern as the Wildcats could do no better than a tie for 13th/14th.  If Northwestern does win it would move them up to 2-18 and Nebraska would fall to 2-18.  Further, Northwestern would win that tie based on their season sweep of the Cornhuskers and get the 13th seed.  

Minnesota at Wisconsin, Sunday at 630pm on BTN:  The Gophers have reached the stage where every game is pretty much a must win game.  They need wins badly and they are running out of time to get them.  

We project a Wisconsin win.  If Minnesota wins instead they would move up to 9-11 and tied with RU and PU for 10th/11th/12th while Wisconsin would fall to 12-8 and tied with MSU and IA for 4th/5th/6th.  

[MaximumSam]

And they might not even make the NIT, let alone the NCAAs.

Bad year to be a merely decent team in the Big Ten.

Also waking up and seeing it's still February. 

[MaximumSam]

Remember when Kentucky lost to Evansville? Evansville finished 0-18 in the Missouri Valley conference

[mcwterps1]

2 of Maryland's most hated ACC Rivals are playing before our game.

Yay. 

[mcwterps1]

Can't complain. Our best are being abused by their best, and the refs are blowing calls that should not have been what they were, like the blocking foul on the pass by Lindo. 

That 3/4 court shot just screams Maryland basketball at its finest. 

Everyone shoots better in our house than we do. 

[ELA]

I can't believe Maryland only has a 13-3 edge in fouls this half.  Big Ten is just screwing them.

[mcwterps1]

I can't believe Maryland only has a 13-3 edge in fouls this half.  Big Ten is just screwing them.

Really? Should have been many more, but the lights out shooting took it out of the refs hands. 

Great game.

[ELA]

It certainly kills any pretend argument about the Big Ten trying to screw them

[mcwterps1]

It certainly kills any pretend argument about the Big Ten trying to screw them

Who won? Smith, again, was getting hammered under the rim all night.

You allow that, and Maryland can't run their offense.

Good job by Izzo to follow the previous 2 teams play and take advantage of the loose whistles by the zebras.

Making up for it on the 2nd half with such a great lead and no calls against our guys, (who know HOW to get to the line ), I'd say proves just the opposite.

B1G plan is being followed perfectly.


https://twitter.com/TerpsWatch/status/1233931670396514305?s=19

[ELA]

Who won? Smith, again, was getting hammered under the rim all night.

You allow that, and Maryland can't run their offense.

Good job by Izzo to follow the previous 2 teams play and take advantage of the loose whistles by the zebras.

Making up for it on the 2nd half with such a great lead and no calls against our guys, (who know HOW to get to the line ), I'd say proves just the opposite.

B1G plan is being followed perfectly.


https://twitter.com/TerpsWatch/status/1233931670396514305?s=19

I'm not complaining about the refs.  I'm just saying, when, with a Big Ten title on the line, the MSU has 13 fouls called on them when Maryland has 3, you certainly can't argue they are actively trying to screw Maryland. Even despite what a neutral account like "TerpsWatch" thinks.  Hopefully Mark Turgeon got home on time.

[ELA]

How did it take 30 years for LMU to put up a Hank Gathers statue?