Both games last night resulted in upsets per the tiers. Ohio State is now -2 but both upset losses (vsUW, vsMN) would but upsets even if we dropped them. Nonetheless I think we should drop them because I can't realistically see them beating UMD at home (or anywhere else) so I'll drop them to tier-3. Thus, here are the new tiers:
- UMD, MSU
- PSU, UW, M, IA, PU
- IL, IU, RU, MN, tOSU
- blank
- UNL, NU
The new projected final standings and BTT seeds are as follows:
- 16-4 Maryland
- 14-6 Michigan State
- 12-8 Penn State
- 12-8 Wisconsin
- 11-9 Iowa
- 11-9 Michigan
- 11-9 Illinois
- 10-10 Rutgers
- 10-10 Purdue
- 10-10 Indiana
- 10-10 Minnesota
- 9-11 Ohio State
- 3-17 Nebraska
- 1-19 Northwestern
The tiebreakers are as follows:
Two-way tie for 3rd/4th between PSU and UW at 12-8:
- The first tiebreaker is H2H where PSU is projected to win because they do not visit Madison this year.
Three-way tie for 5th/6th/7th between M, IA, and IL at 11-9:
- The first tiebreaker is H2H2H where all three are projected to go 2-2.
- The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference. That is projected to be Maryland. Iowa is projected to go 1-1 against the Terps, M is projected to go 0-1 against the Terps, IL is projected to go 0-2 against the Terps. Thus, Iowa gets the #5 seed.
- IL and M then move to record against the next best team(s) in the conference. That is projected to be Michigan State. Michigan is projected to go 1-1 against the Spartans while Illinois is projected to go 0-2 against the Spartans. Thus, Michigan gets the #6 seed and Illinois gets the #7 seed.
Four-way tie for 8th/9th/10th/11th at 10-10 between PU, IU, RU, and MN:
- The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H. Rutgers does not travel to either Bloomington or Minneapolis so their projected H2H2H2H is 3-1 and they get the #8 seed. Purdue does not travel to Minneapolis so their projected H2H2H2H is 3-2 and they get the #9 seed. Indiana does not host Rutgers so their projected H2H2H2H is 2-3 and they get the #10 seed. Minnesota does not host Purdue or Rutgers so their projected H2H2H2H is 1-3 and they get the #11 seed.
Based on those projections the BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 11, 2020:
- #11 Minnesota vs #14 Northwestern, 930pm on BTN
- #12 Ohio State vs #12 Nebraska, 6pm on BTN
Thursday, March 12, 2020:
- #5 Iowa vs tOSU/UNL, 230pm on BTN
- #6 Michigan vs MN/NU, 9pm on BTN
- #7 Illinois vs #10 Indiana, 630pm on BTN
- #8 Rutgers vs #9 Purdue, noon on BTN
Friday, March 13, 2020:
- #1 Maryland vs RU/PU, noon on BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs IL/IU, 630pm on BTN
- #3 Penn State vs M/MN/NU, 9pm on BTN
- #4 Wisconsin vs IA/tOSU/UNL, 230pm on BTN
Saturday, March 14, 2020:
- UMD/RU/PU vs UW/IA/tOSU/UNL, 1pm on CBS
- MSU/IL/IU vs PSU/M/MN/NU, 330pm on CBS
Sunday, March 15, 2020:
- UMD/RU/PU/UW/IA/tOSU/UNL vs MSU/IL/IU/PSU/M/MN/NU, 330pm on CBS
As usual, please not that with 10 teams bunched up within three games of one another at 12-8, 11-9, 10-10, and 9-11 this is all VERY fluid.