I think teams get "up" right before the game starts, but I also think at times they don't take preparation as seriously as they would in a game they consider to be important. Focus, film, effort, all that. Then they find themselves behind early and are kind of whooshed and can't recover.
I think UCF had a fine team, but probably around 10th best in the country, meaning if they played 1-9, they would win 4 times out of 10, then 3, then 2, then 1. Maybe they beat Bama in a real game one time in ten. Maybe.
But with Auburn, it was probably more in the 4 times out of 10 area, and Auburn didn't prepare for it. Credit to UCF for playing and preparing of course, but I personally don't think they had the talent Auburn had, and Auburn was not a great team.
I still figured UCF would likely beat Auburn in THAT game because of game preparation. And if UCF wants to claim an NC fine with me, I don't care one bit.
Games for me fall to probabilities, and there was a slight probability that Stanford would beat USC as 42 point dogs way back, and it happened. That was probably a 1 in 10,000 kind of event.
And teams that are 7 point dogs still win about 1 time in 3. Doesn't mean they are better of course.