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Topic: 2018 Season Stream of Completely Off-Topic Unconsciousness

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #294 on: April 05, 2018, 04:22:18 PM »
Banks were giving out loans based on stated income. Stated.

Think about that for a minute. Duh.


I find this interesting:

https://www.ilnews.org/news/statewide/census-retirees-will-outnumber-kids-in-less-than-years-for/article_b0149f88-383c-11e8-895b-93a77c0e4035.html
I'm an accountant.  I don't find it interesting, I find it unsustainable.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #295 on: April 05, 2018, 04:24:46 PM »
But of course. 

Which part? I can tell you all about Illinois, but I'm sure you've seen enough to know, and laugh at those of us who have yet to leave.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #296 on: April 05, 2018, 04:25:34 PM »
I dislike bankers
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #297 on: April 05, 2018, 04:30:49 PM »
As we're talking about 2008, it amazes me how our economy on one hand is built on long-term principals, yet incentivizes the short term so much. That was obviously only an element of what happened, but it never ceases to amaze me how much can be made by learning and mastering the mechanics of all this without actually producing anything.
I first came up with this idea long before 2008 and it is something that I still believe in and that I believe should be adopted.  
Most high level executives in major corporations are paid largely through stock options.  There is a major tax advantage and that is why it is done.  What I would like to see is for the tax code to be amended to eliminate the advantage unless the options take at least 10 years to vest.  
I think this would substantially reduce the incentives for reckless corporate behavior.  Think of two examples, ENRON and the mortgage melt-down:
ENRON:  The execs knew that this couldn't go on forever but until they got caught they got to live very high-on-the-hog.  Had they been compensated more by the 10-year stock price growth and less by the three-month stock price growth there would have been much less incentive to do this.  
Mortgage melt-down:  At least some people in the industry had to have doubts about this.  I remember reading about mortgage sellers (firms that loaned on houses and sold the loans almost immediately) losing money to "bad debt".  These firms only held the mortgages for 30-60 days so "bad debt" meant that their borrowers were literally unable to make the FIRST payment.  Look, anybody who extends credit on a large scale will suffer a certain amount of bad debt loss but if your borrowers can't even make the first mortgage payment that is on you, you loaned to someone you obviously shouldn't have loaned to.  If execs were thinking about stock prices 10 years from now instead of three months from now they would have an incentive to think more than three months ahead.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #298 on: April 05, 2018, 04:35:12 PM »
I like it.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #299 on: April 05, 2018, 04:53:05 PM »
10 years? Yeah, that's not going to happen. If you dial it back a bit maybe you've got something -- although it would probably need to closely follow a major financial scandal like Enron or the mortgage meltdown to get the political pull to get it through. 

MarqHusker

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #300 on: April 05, 2018, 10:02:01 PM »
Unless you require graded vesting schedules depending on the level of exec, the 10 year vesting schedule applied across any employees receiving stock options would be a terrible idea for the down the line employees (who also receive stock options or RSUs).

I'm not a C level exec, but I am a fairly high grade employee of a subsidiary of a 70,000 employee publicly traded company.   Part of my comp. is stock option based, as well as some in RSUs.   RSU's have better downside protection as no option strike price exists,  at some date I am given the RSUs, or cash equivalent at whatever the share price is.  The options of course have a strike price, and they are only worth something if the stock appreciates.

For the middle or senior business line manager, all of our vesting schedules are usually 3 or 4 years (depends on a number of irrelevant factors).   My influence or impact on our parent company's bottom line is negligible at best.  Our total revs are tens of millions, <1% of parent total revs.  However, the level of LT comp I get is based on a blend of our business line performance combined with the parent's performance, the parent is about 80% of the blend.   Our schedule is graded, ok fine, at 3 or 4 years (not cliff vested).   No Fing way am I hanging around having 10, 20, 30, 50% target (of my comp) tied to a 10 year vesting schedule.   I'd leave.

Incentive/Long Term Comp. has been a pendulum of formulas,  everyone new one is the next best thing, until it isn't.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #301 on: April 06, 2018, 10:28:09 AM »
No Fing way am I hanging around having 10, 20, 30, 50% target (of my comp) tied to a 10 year vesting schedule.   I'd leave.
I do understand your objections but on this one, I'm not so sure.  My proposal was a federal tax law change so where would you go?  It isn't like you could go to a different company and get a shorter vesting period.  Granted, you could go to a different company where a smaller percentage of your total compensation was tied to that 10 year vesting schedule but you'd take a tax hit for doing that and, in any case, you might be able to do that within the same company.  You might even get a straight-up choice.  Ie, the company might stipulate:
  • 25% of this is paid as cash bonus.  
  • 25% of this is paid as 10 year vesting stock-option.  
  • 50% of this is up to you between the two.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #302 on: April 06, 2018, 12:02:34 PM »
Well, in a lot of cases, it makes sense to the employee to take cash. After all, for a rank and file (or even middle management, up to maybe Director / Sr Director levels) employee, you don't have the overall power to really spike or tank the stock price on a short-term basis. It's top executives who can manage that. 

Now, because humans aren't good at saving, it's probably smarter to own stock (less liquidity means you're less likely to just sell it and buy a luxury item), making it in some ways a forced saving sort of plan. But as far as the decision-making process of how to take compensation, cash is king.

For the employer, RSUs or options make a lot of sense. My company, like MarqHusker's, vests an RSU grant over a 4-year period. So essentially they're tying future compensation to retention. If I were to leave the company today, I'd be leaving a significant chunk of money on the table. Not so much that it will keep me under all and any circumstances, but certainly enough to be a factor in the decision. If you put that vesting period out to 10 years, frankly the time value of money is low enough that it would no longer be a significant decision-making factor on staying or going (at least at the levels of money I have on the line).

If you make a vesting period that long, essentially what you're going to have is companies just moving away from options/RSUs entirely. They'll cease to be a viable compensation structure. 


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #303 on: April 06, 2018, 12:24:41 PM »
To clarify I didn't mean that the employee would still have to be with the company at the end of vesting, just that the option couldn't be exercised until 10 years.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #304 on: April 06, 2018, 12:44:32 PM »
I'd also make one more point. Corporate execs at certain levels are considered "insiders". Pretty sure that for director and above, within my company you have certain windows during which you cannot sell stock [usually related to when financial reporting occurs], and then for top execs, all insider buy/sell has to be reported to the SEC. These insider buy/sell are heavily scrutinized by investors trying to figure out I'd also make one more point. Corporate execs at certain levels are considered "insiders". Pretty sure that for director and above, within my company you have certain windows during which you cannot sell stock [usually related to when financial reporting occurs], and then for top execs, all insider buy/sell has to be reported to the SEC. These insider buy/sell are heavily scrutinized by investors trying to figure out what the execs think about the stock.

So the problem you're trying to solve (execs juicing the stock for short-term gains) really only affects their paper wealth. They don't actually get access to that money unless they sell the stock, which is a heavily-scrutinized activity. So while it's easy to say they're juicing short-term earnings for their own benefit, I don't know how true it actually is because if they were seen selling off huge amounts of stock, it could actually tank their stock price as the market would assume the insiders knew there was a reason to sell immediately.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #305 on: April 06, 2018, 12:52:01 PM »
To clarify I didn't mean that the employee would still have to be with the company at the end of vesting, just that the option couldn't be exercised until 10 years.  
And I still say the actual effect of a 10-year waiting period would be to essentially kill the use of options/RSUs as compensation. That's simply too long of a time horizon for either an employer or employee.

MarqHusker

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #306 on: April 06, 2018, 12:52:30 PM »
If you make a vesting period that long, essentially what you're going to have is companies just moving away from options/RSUs entirely. They'll cease to be a viable compensation structure

This is exactly what I mean.   Tax laws change, and then behaviors change as a result.

Nobody will want (a portion of comp tied to) options that vest over 10 years, and that will have zero to do with being discouraged from taking short term risk (the apparent intent of the change in tax law), and everything to do with the compensation structure being wholly unattractive

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #307 on: April 06, 2018, 05:07:48 PM »
NCAA proposal to allow immediate transfers for athletes with >3.0 GPA...

https://sports.yahoo.com/committee-recommends-immediate-transfers-gpa-3-0-191448194.html

 

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