25% of the 1st and 2nd round games will be played in either MDT or PDT. I don't think that's all that excessive.
I get the point you're trying to make though, and yes, a relatively small percentage of D1 basketball is played in those two time zones, and yes, it sucks that 4 and 5 seeds have to travel well over 1,000 miles to play rinky-dink California schools in what basically amounts to being their own back yards, but honestly, there are high schools in Texas that have larger followings than said rinky-dink west coast schools, so at worst it'd be a true neutral court. I believe only 3 seeds and higher are offered any sort of geographical "protection" (i.e. either staying in their own region or time zone), and any geographical proximity for lower seeds would be purely coincidental.
And geography is virtually a non-factor when upsets happen in March Madness. Nine times out of ten, four seeds eat thirteen seeds for breakfast regardless of locale. Thirteen seeds occasionally upset four seeds due to hot shooting (or extremely poor shooting by the favorite), taking the favorite out of their comfort zone by playing a different tempo, or simply catching the favorite looking ahead.
It is excessive, massively so.
As you noted, 25% of the first/second round games are in either MDT (SLC) or PDT (San Jose). That sounds reasonable until you notice (from my post above) that only three of the top 32 teams (9.4%) are in MDT and PDT. Worse, two of those three (Nevada and Washington) are only barely in the top-32.
I don't think that the #4's are specifically excluded from "protection" and I think it is more of a sliding scale than you are thinking. Lets say, for example, that MSU wins the BTT and ends up with the fourth #1 seed. The closest first/second round site for the Spartans would be Columbus but even as a #1 seed they wouldn't get Columbus if #1 seeds Kentucky and Virginia were ahead of them and those two got Columbus.
What I am saying is that I think it is more of a sliding scale. I think they seed the bracket, then place the pods. When they place the pods they do it sequentially and place each pod leader (#1-#4 seed) in the best available remaining spot. Thus, if you are the first #1 seed you get the best possible spot and if you are the last #4 seed you get whatever is left.
If you want to know where the "extra" locations are, just look at where the #4 seeds went (because they naturally end up with whatever is left). In Lunardi's projections for this year:
- #4 Kansas is in Hartford, CT
- #4 FSU is in SLC
- #4 Wisconsin is in San Jose
- #4 KSU is in San Jose
There is your proof that it is excessive. Three of the four projected #4 seeds are EST/CST teams getting shipped out west to those extra sites.
Last year's #4 seeds:
- #4 Arizona was in Boise, ID
- #4 Wichita State was in San Diego
- #4 Gonzaga was in Boise, ID
- #4 Auburn was in San Diego
The two western teams (AZ/Gonzaga) played eastern opponents (Buffalo/UNC-G) in the first round and did or would have played eastern opponents (Kentucky/tOSU) in the second round. Note that the Western #4 seeds got a huge geographical advantage while the eastern #4 seeds got screwed. That is because there were too many western sites last year as well.
Hopefully someday the NCAA will realize that the vast majority of their teams and fans are in the EST Zone.
