Each team has one and only one game this weekend (Fri-Sun) and then we head to Chicago for the BTT. Here are all of the various BTT seed possibilities:
The #1 seed: M/MSU winner
The #2 seed: Purdue (if they win at NU), M/MSU loser if PU loses
The #3 seed: M/MSU loser if PU wins, PU if PU loses
The #4 seed: Wisconsin unless they lose (@tOSU) and UMD wins (vMN), in that case Maryland
The #5 seed: Maryland unless they win and UW loses, in that case Wisconsin
The #6 seed: Iowa unless they lose (@UNL) and MN wins (@UMD), in that case Minnesota
The #7 seed:
- Iowa if Iowa loses (@UNL) and Minnesota wins (@UMD)
- Minnesota if they win and Iowa wins
- Minnesota if they lose and Ohio State loses
- Ohio State if they win (vUW) and Minnesota loses (@UMD)
The #8 seed, if Ohio State wins (vUW):
- Minnesota if they lose (@UMD)
- Ohio State if MN wins
The #9 seed if Ohio State wins (if tOSU wins then they and MN will be 7/8): The IU/RU winner and IL (if they win (@PSU) will be 9th or tied for 9th/10th. In the case of a tie:
- Indiana/Illinois: Indiana wins (9 seed), Illinois loses (10 seed)
- Rutgers/Illinois: Illinois wins (9 seed), Rutgers loses (10 seed)
If Ohio State loses then things get really complicated. IU/RU are tied one game behind Ohio State. Thus, if Ohio State loses they will tie with the IU/RU winner. Additionally, Illinois would join that tie if they win (@PSU). Thus, there are four potential ties if Ohio State loses:
- Ohio State/Indiana: Ohio State wins based on H2H (1-0) (8 seed), Indiana loses (9 seed)
- Ohio State/Rutgers: Ohio State wins based on record against Minnesota (8 seed), Rutgers loses (9 seed)
- Ohio State/Indiana/Illinois: Indiana wins (8 seed), Ohio State is second (9 seed), Illinois is last (10 seed)
- Ohio State/Rutgers/Illinois: Illinois wins (8 seed), Ohio State is second (9 seed), Rutgers is last (10 seed)
All of the possibilities involving Illinois winning are covered above. If the Illini lose then they will tie with the IU/RU loser and PSU for 10th/11th/12th. Here is how those ties would break:
- Illinois/Penn State/Indiana: Indiana wins (10 seed), Penn State is second (11 seed), Illinois is last (12 seed)
- Illinois/Penn State/ Rutgers: Penn State wins (10 seed), Rutgers is second (11 seed), Illinois is last (12 seed)
The #12 seed if Illinois wins (If Illinois loses to PSU then PSU, IL, and the IU/RU loser will tie for 10/11/12, see above). If Illinois wins then PSU, UNL, and NU will be 12/13/14): Penn State (either by finishing ahead of UNL or by winning the tiebreaker with UNL based on record against Michigan).
The #13 seed: Nebraska. This is a done deal. The best Nebraska can do is a tie with Illinois for 12th/13th and they lose that tie based on record against Michigan. The worst Nebraska can do is a tie with NU for 13th/14th and they win that tie based on H2H.
The #14 seed: Northwestern. The best the Wildcats can do is a tie with Nebraska and they lose that tie.