2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Ohio State spending 32 minutes in a dogfight at home with the B1G's worst team was hardly inspiring but a win is a win I guess.  

Both games were as projected so no changes there.  I think Northwestern has officially entered "need to win BTT" territory with UNL/RU/IU not far behind.  

Tonight's game is interesting.  The Gophers need to win some games that they are not projected to win and at home against Michigan would be a REALLY good one to win.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Indiana is at Iowa on Friday night in a game that is a must win for the Hoosiers.  Indiana is a weird team.  They have three really good wins:

• A 96-73 blowout over a Marquette team that is currently leading the BigEast.  
• A 68-67 win over a quite good Louisville team.  
• A Road win over a Michigan State team that is currently leading the B1G.  

Now for the bad news.  They already have 11 B1G losses including some really bad ones (vUNL, @NU, @RU).  They already have 13 losses overall.  

They started out 3-0 in the B1G but since then they are 1-11.  The odd thing is that the one win was in East Lansing (see #3 above).  

As a practical matter they are probably already finished but if they lose their next two (@Iowa Friday night, vsWisconsin on Tuesday) there will be no need for the qualifier.  At that point their only path to the NCAA would be to win the BTT.  

[ELA]

I feel like every game I watch Cash seems to be the guy that ends up at the top of the conversation. PER is also a lot nicer to big men. Both Ward and Tillman have higher PER then Cash. I lean towards Win Shares as my go to if Im picking one stat. Cash leads the BIG with 5.3 WS for the season.

Yes, but I think I still hear more national guys talking PER.  Granted, maybe because it's context for Zion's historic season.

[ELA]

So, Jim Boeheim killed a guy last night?

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-syracuses-jim-boeheim-strikes-kills-pedestrian-highway-143543107.html

Not Brian Kelly, or seemingly even his fault, but still crazy

[betarhoalphadelta]

Damn. Tragic.

[MaximumSam]

Ohio State spending 32 minutes in a dogfight at home with the B1G's worst team was hardly inspiring but a win is a win I guess.  

 

NW may be the worst team, but by no means are they a bad team, and they've been in dog fights with better teams than OSU.  Holtmann still playing around with the lineups.  Musa Jallow started but only played five minutes, while Justin Ahrens played 7 minutes.  Assuming all return, next years starting lineup, if I had to guess, would be 
PG: CJ Walker
SG: Luther Muhammad
SG: Duane Washington
SF: Andre Wesson
C: Kaleb Wesson
The backups would be:
PG: DJ Carton
SG: Musa Jallow
SF: Justin Ahrens/ Alonzo Gaffney
PF: Kyle Young
PF: Jaedon LeDee/ EJ Liddell
That second unit would probably be better than our first unit this year.  Who knows...there does seem to be a bit of a glut at forward.  Kyle Young will play big minutes next year, wonder if Ledee or Ahrens feel squeezed out.

[medinabuckeye1]

That second unit would probably be better than our first unit this year.  Who knows...there does seem to be a bit of a glut at forward.  Kyle Young will play big minutes next year, wonder if Ledee or Ahrens feel squeezed out.

With most of the production and minutes returning next year and a solid recruiting class coming in I am really excited about the prospects for next year.  I even considered starting a 2019-2020 thread for it but decided that should wait at least until after the BTT if not until the middle-to-end of the NCAA.  
This year, however, this team remains a borderline tournament team that will probably either make or miss the tournament by a very narrow margin.  

[ELA]

Saw it pointed out that the Ward loss almost eliminates two guys.  The quick doubles Ward struggled with last year, he has bastly improved on.  The double frequently comes off Goins man, who has really done well to stretch the floor this year, and made guys pay for leaving him to double.  Without Ward in yesterday, Going was being checked farther out from the hoop, and he really struggled with it.  Granted if Tillman keeps going for 19 and 11, maybe that'll change how teams guard him.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Saw it pointed out that the Ward loss almost eliminates two guys.  The quick doubles Ward struggled with last year, he has bastly improved on.  The double frequently comes off Goins man, who has really done well to stretch the floor this year, and made guys pay for leaving him to double.  Without Ward in yesterday, Going was being checked farther out from the hoop, and he really struggled with it.  Granted if Tillman keeps going for 19 and 11, maybe that'll change how teams guard him.

How is Tillman's passing out of the double? It usually takes [as you mention with Ward] bigs a little bit of time to learn how to pass out of doubles. 
I agree, of course, that if he keeps going for 19 and 11, teams might start responding to that by doubling him. But it's not a foregone conclusion that this will mean Goins benefits, unless Tillman shows the ability to pass. 

[medinabuckeye1]

What does everyone think of Minnesota's chances at home against Michigan tonight?  

Minnesota is the B1G's most tenuous bubble team right now.  In Lunardi's latest they are one of the "last four byes" as a #11 seed.  As I see it, each of their next four games could go either way:

• vs Michigan, tonight
• at Rutgers, 2/24
• at Northwestern, 2/28
• vs Purdue, 3/5

If you flipped the H/A I would be reasonably confident that the Gophers would lose to Michigan and Purdue on the road and beat Rutgers and Northwestern at home.  As it is, who knows.  I am confident that Michigan and Purdue are better teams than Minnesota but the Gophers host both of those games so they have at least a chance.  Similarly, I am confident that the Gophers are better than the Scarlet Knights and Wildcats but Minnesota is on the road for those two games so there is a decent chance of them losing.  

After those four the Gophers finish up with a trip to College Park to play the Terps.  Minnesota is currently 7-8/17-9 and I can't see them winning in College Park so I'm mentally viewing that as 7-9/17-10 with the four toss-ups to go.  

As I see it, Minnesota simply cannot afford to lose all four.  That would leave them entering the BTT at 7-13/17-14 and in big trouble.  I think that 8-12/18-13 would be only somewhat better.  You wouldn't feel very good about their chances unless they could split those four to enter the BTT a 9-11/19-12.  

The Michigan game tonight isn't a "must win", but losing it would put tremendous pressure on the remaining three potentially winnable games.  

[ELA]

Decent.  Michigan has looked nearly unbeatable at home, and not very good at all on the road.  So any road game for them right now is losable.  I certainly think Minnesota has a better chance of beating UM in the Barn tonight than MSU does in Crisler on Sunday.

[Anonymous Coward]

It's funny. I went to fully agree with ELA earlier, but my device had signed out again, and signing back in was too much effort so I didn't bother responding. And then this game happened. Not that Michigan was an underdog or "even" but I 50/50 foresaw a letdown.

[bayareabadger]

It's funny. I went to fully agree with ELA earlier, but my device had signed out again, and signing back in was too much effort so I didn't bother responding. And then this game happened. Not that Michigan was an underdog or "even" but I 50/50 foresaw a letdown.

I dunno why, I just figured that wouldn’t be that hard.
Was Matthews against UW in AA a full season abberation, or just a throwback to earlier production?

[Anonymous Coward]

I dunno why, I just figured that wouldn’t be that hard.
Was Matthews against UW in AA a full season abberation, or just a throwback to earlier production?

Matthews sort of had a renaissance beginning with that UW game. Excluding today, of course. I guess that it only lasting the UW, PSU and UMd games, means I should find a word other than "renaissance." But this stretch showed not only a massive bump in ORtng but also a return to his productivity (and style of productivity) from last year -- where he had a high rate of converting what most people think of as bad shots, such as long two-pointers, often as fade aways, somewhat often occuring late in the clock. Matthews had a terrible season-long drought until that UW game, but then he went 24/38 in three consecutive games, making us hopeful that the slump was over and he'd reverted to 2017-18. After tonight, that clearly remains to be seen. I'm still hopeful, just slightly less so.