2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[Entropy]

UNL was a tier 4 before Copeland was injured.    I never saw them as higher because the culture within the program doesn't breed consistency.    Without Copeland and how this team is falling apart, tier 6 is valid.   Good thing Nebraska fans can spell NIT. 

[RestingB!tchFace]

I made a typo on the earlier post, Indiana is actually tier-5.  I have fixed it.  
As far as Indiana's six straight losses, two were against Michigan, one each at Maryland and Purdue.  Those four are games that most teams in the Country would lose, they are just really tough games.  The other two (vUNL, @NU) are more questionable but we projected the road loss at NU.  Thus, while they have lost six straight only one is an "upset" and that is their only upset this year so we'll wait and see if they take another negative upset.  

How about Maryland?  Seems that they've only won games that they "should have" won.  Haven't beaten anyone above them.  Have that stinky loss on their home court to Illinois.

[JerseyTerrapin]

I'm not surprised if he won't let his AD schedule them for the regular season; that's not so strange. I did take seriously what was a joke. Had wondered if this were next in the process of incrementally embracing a thousand conspiracies so that one would inevitably be right. 😉

Anonymous, Coach Krzyzewski had a REALLY weird and strong reaction when Maryland left the ACC.  I don't know why he cared that much, but it really appeared to hit him hard.  He wasn't just angry, it almost seemed like he was personally hurt by it.  
Most teams/fans just said the equivalent of "F 'em!"  But he could never say fewer than six or seven paragraphs whenever he was asked about it.

I never understood it.  

from that article:

“I have a great deal of respect for Maryland," Coach K told reporters. He paused briefly, then added: “If it was such a rivalry, they’d still be in the ACC. Obviously they don’t think it’s that important, or they wouldn’t be in the Big Ten."

[medinabuckeye1]

How about Maryland?  Seems that they've only won games that they "should have" won.  Haven't beaten anyone above them.  Have that stinky loss on their home court to Illinois.

The loss to Illinois is an upset but to clarify it wasn't actually on their home court, it was a neutral site game at MSG in NYC.  That said, it really doesn't matter because a tier-3 team (Maryland) should beat a tier-7 team (Illinois) regardless of location.  
The loss to Illinois is bad no matter how you look at it but their other two losses were at Purdue by two points and at MSU by 14.  Those two are games that almost every team in the Country would lose so we shouldn't penalize the Terps for those.  
The Illinois loss raises some concern but it is their only upset.  You are right that they haven't beaten anyone above them but they also haven't hosted anyone above them.  They only get two chances at home against teams ranked ahead of them this year because they don't host MSU.  Those two chances are a home game against Purdue on 2/12 and a home game against Michigan on 3/3.  We project that they'll win the Purdue game and lose the Michigan game.  
At this point I would consider Maryland to be "on notice" because they have a negative upset (the loss to Illinois) and no offsetting positive upsets so they are at -1.  If they absorb another upset loss without getting an offsetting positive upset we'll look seriously at moving them down.  

[ELA]

Anonymous, Coach Krzyzewski had a REALLY weird and strong reaction when Maryland left the ACC.  I don't know why he cared, but it really seem to hit him hard.  He wasn't just angry, it almost seemed like he was personally hurt by it.  
Most teams/fans just said the equivalent of "F 'em!"  But he could never say fewer than six or seven paragraphs whenever he was asked about it.
I never understood it.  

Which is odd because the Duke trips to College Park were probably the basketball games filled with the most absolute venom.  That always felt like a more charged atmosphere than Duke-UNC or Indiana-Purdue, or whatever to me.

[847badgerfan]

How about Maryland?  Seems that they've only won games that they "should have" won.  Haven't beaten anyone above them.  Have that stinky loss on their home court to Illinois.

That's what this is all about. The tiers are set up to predict which teams will beat which. In the case of Maryland, the tiers have worked. They are on notice (in my mind) but even if they lose in Madison Monday, they stay where they are because the tiers predict that. If they lose at UNL, they will drop.

[ELA]

And trust me, I've had my issues with using some of these forward looking/prediction based models for tourney seeding.  I'd rather select and seed based on the best season, not the best team.

But no matter how you feel about that, this isn't a power ranking, or anything like that, it's meant to be a very simplistic, forward projecting model, so yes, KenPom or NET or whatever is a better comparison to the sole purpose of what the tiers are trying to do.

[JerseyTerrapin]

How about Maryland?  Seems that they've only won games that they "should have" won.  Haven't beaten anyone above them.  Have that stinky loss on their home court to Illinois.

Also, keep in mind that they higher a team is, the fewer the opportunities there are to beat anybody above them ( because there are fewer such teams).  As Medina said, Maryland only has two home games against higher teams all season.  Conversely, the higher a team is, the more "expected" victories there are going to be because there are a lot more teams below them.

[RestingB!tchFace]

I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread.  Do results matter anymore?

[medinabuckeye1]

Also, keep in mind that they higher a team is, the fewer the opportunities there are to beat anybody above them ( because there are fewer such teams).  As Medina said, Maryland only has two home games against higher teams all season.  Conversely, the higher a team is, the more "expected" victories there are going to be because there are a lot more teams below them.

This is a really good point and it is one reason that I am hesitant to move Illinois up even though they are +2.  The projection before upsets was that Michigan would go 19-1 and Penn State would go 3-17.  As @JerseyTerrapin pointed out, it is a lot more likely for Penn State to win an upset than it is for Michigan simply because PSU has 17 chances to upset somebody while Michigan only has one.  Typically, by the end of the year, the teams in the top few tiers tend to be negative and the teams in the bottom few tiers tend to be positive for exactly that reason.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread.  Do results matter anymore?

Now you are back to snark for no reason.  There isn't any emotion in this system.  We really don't care if anyone outside this thread (yourself included) takes this seriously.  
Results obviously matter.  As we have explained to you repeatedly, if your team manages to achieve results better than we project, we'll move them up.  They haven't so far (overall, they do have one win we didn't project but they also have one loss we didn't project so those offset).  

[847badgerfan]

I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread.  Do results matter anymore?

You are obviously confused as to what the tiers are for. They are NOT rankings, and there is absolutely zero emotion in them. They are just predictors. It's really pretty simple.

I suppose we could post power rankings like we do for football, but I'm pretty certain not too many of us watch every possible game, like we do for football. Rankings here would not be very reliable as a result.

[bayareabadger]

I'm just glad that the user-emotion/schedule-dependent based system that's used here isn't taken seriously outside of this thread.  Do results matter anymore?

Is the complaint thay Iowa is ahead of Minn?

[847badgerfan]

Is the complaint thay Iowa is ahead of Minn?

Probably UW too...