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Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1372 on: February 06, 2019, 12:10:16 PM »
Vis-a-vis those three teams:
Wisconsin:
Their next three games are all projected losses (@MN, @M, vMSU) but all three look potentially winnable.  I agree with @847badgerfan , these three really determine their season:
  • Win all three, they are a B1G Championship contender.  
  • 2-1 they are a marginal B1G Championship contender with a strong chance to at least get the double-bye.  
  • 1-2 they have a marginal chance at a double-bye.  
  • 0-3, trouble.  

Indiana:
The Hoosiers lost seven straight and looked dead in the water then went into East Lansing and pulled off the upset.  Did they turn a corner or is MSU just a mess right now or was that just a one-off upset?  We'll find out.  Their next three games (vIA, vtOSU, @MN) all feel like they could go either way.  They are currently 4-7 and there is obviously a HUMONGOUS difference between coming out of those three at 7-7 as opposed to coming out of those three at 4-10.  

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are 4-6 and should win two of their next three (vPSU, vIL) but the IU game still looms large.  The thing for the Buckeyes is that most of their remaining games are either:
  • Home games against the worst teams in the league that Ohio State should obviously win (vPSU, vIL, vNU), or
  • Road games against the best teams in the league that Ohio State should obviously lose (@MSU, @UMD, @PU)
That puts particular emphasis on the few remaining games that could plausibly go either way (@IU, vIA, @NU, vUW)

If the Buckeyes win the three they should obviously win and lose the three they should obviously lose they gets them to 7-9.  The rest are the difference between 7-13 and 11-9.  
I still don’t think at UM is one UW can win. 
Also think Purdue is a definite favorite. Hardest games down the stretch are at MD, at IU and I guess at Neb, OSU at home or at Minn. 

MaximumSam

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1373 on: February 06, 2019, 01:40:06 PM »
February KenPom

1. MSU (4)
2. Michigan (6)
3. Purdue (10)
4. Wisonsin (11)
5. Maryland (20)
6. Iowa (23)
7. Nebraska (27)
8. OSU (32)
9. Indiana (44)
10. Minny (51)
11. PSU (64)
12. NW (66)
13. Illinois (68)
14. Rutgers (97)

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1374 on: February 06, 2019, 02:21:46 PM »
We were having that NET conversation the other day, and this excerpt seemed like a solid contribution:

NET stuff. Matt Norlander interviews one of the committee members about the NET rankings, gets a cringe-inducing reference to "machine learning"…
Quote
CBS Sports: Coaches have spoken about their awareness of scoring margin with the NET. Buzz Williams most recently on Monday night. Are they misguided in thinking that winning or losing a game by seven or eight points vs. 11 or 12 points makes any real difference in how their team lands in the NET and can affect seeding or selection?
Muir: Since there's a lot of machine learning and nuances to the metrics I should leave up to the experts, what I would say is — based on your question — I'd be heard-pressed to think whether you win by 11 or you win by eight, whether that makes a big difference in our process. What we're going to now acknowledge is the team who's won the game, the team that lost the game, where that game was played and what happened in that game. That's what's most important. 
There's thousands of possessions during the course of a season, and so to just boil down to one possession as to where you're going to be on the seed line or whether you're going to be selected or not, I think you're looking at something miniscule. It's much broader than that. If a really good team wins at another place and played well and won by 20, well we take note of that. Does it make a difference if it's 20 or 18? Probably not.
…but does chisel out a couple of answers to questions coaches are asking. Richard Pitino was complaining just yesterday about trying to reach a ten-point margin and how he didn't like doing that when in the past he'd put in young players or walk-ons. But there's no magic 10-point bonus. There is a MOV segment of NET that's capped at ten points, and there is an efficiency component that uses margins by default.
Those aren't worth gaming in the last minute. The tiny wobbles that happen in the last couple minutes of an already-decided game are not going to move the needle, especially because the committee is still using teamsheets as their main method of selecting and seeding the field. The margin stuff isn't worth getting exercised over.
Meanwhile, the list of outliers seems like a good one to me:
Quote
Helped by the NET
  • NC State: 93 spots higher (121 in RPI, 35 in NET)
  • Nebraska: 71 spots higher (104 in RPI, 33 in NET)
  • Liberty: 73 spots higher (127 in RPI, 54 in NET)
  • Florida: 38 spots higher (80 in RPI, 42 in NET)
  • Saint Mary's: 25 spots higher (71 in RPI, 46 in NET)
  • Lipscomb: 24 spots higher (56 in RPI, 32 in NET) 
  • Virginia Tech: 19 (29 in RPI, 10 in NET)
  • Baylor: 18 (49 in RPI, 31 in NET)
[color][size][font]
Frankly, if the NET wasn't around, NC State (16-7) and Nebraska (13-9) would not be thought of as reasonable NCAA Tournament teams.  …
Hurt by the NET
[/font][/size][/color]
  • VCU: 21 spots lower (28 in RPI, 49 in NET)
  • Kansas State: 17 spots lower (13 in RPI, 30 in NET)
  • Kansas: 16 spots lower (1 in RPI, 17 in NET)
  • TCU: 14 spots lower (23 in RPI, 37 in NET)
  • Belmont: 15 spots lower (48 in RPI, 63 in NET)
  • Oklahoma: 13 spots (25 in RPI, 38 in NET)
[color][size][font]
The Big 12 gets dinged plenty in this NET-conscious environment, interestingly enough.[/font][/size][/color]
Ironically, after people complained that the NET rankings didn't track Kenpom closely enough all of these outliers could have been ripped from its pages: Kenpom #27 Nebraska, #41 NC State, #61 Liberty, #36 Florida, #38 St Mary's, #34 Lipscomb, #9 VT, and #26 Baylor are all within spitting distance of their NET rankings. Ditto the relative losers.
This isn't a huge surprise. When Bart Torvik put together a NET facsimile the component of that facsimile that correlated the best with the actual ranking was a version of his efficiency margin minus preseason inputs. I might argue that NET is actually too willing to ignore You Play To Win The Game, but if its main use is as a way to judge the quality of wins and losses on teamsheets that's… exactly what you want.

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1375 on: February 06, 2019, 02:30:56 PM »
I @#&%ing hate buzz words. 

Not that buzz words don't refer to anything. "Machine learning" is a thing. It's a term that refers to an actual concept that exists in the real world.

Problem is that only about 5% of the people (if even that many) who use the term "machine learning" can explain what it is and what the term means. The other 95+% only use the term to sound smart.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1376 on: February 06, 2019, 03:10:51 PM »
Tangential, but I'm all aboard. The same could be said about other words. Distinctions like who/whom and farther/further have good linguistic purposes and are easy to misuse, but I think it's better (more forgivable) to incorrectly use the common versions (who or farther) as an honest mistake than to incorrectly use the "proper-seeming" versions in order to make one's language seem proper.

mcwterps1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1377 on: February 06, 2019, 07:22:15 PM »
Season's done. Besides this team being unable to make layups and dunks, they shoot way too many 3's, and they're not a 3 point shooting team, Mark yelled at the refs a while ago and told them that loss was on them.

Well, now they're getting their revenge.

Maryland players getting hacked and no calls, best players getting ghost fouls quickly to take them out of games.

More convinced now that the refs are spiteful and steer games. 


Crooked lot.

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1378 on: February 06, 2019, 07:39:06 PM »
At the moment Maryland is up 8 on the road, late in the 1st half... Other than poor shooting [by both teams], the box scores don't look that far out of whack.

Maybe it's not time to give up on the season yet...

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1379 on: February 06, 2019, 07:40:48 PM »
the Huskers are having the trouble on the offensive end
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1380 on: February 06, 2019, 08:05:57 PM »
Season's done. Besides this team being unable to make layups and dunks, they shoot way too many 3's, and they're not a 3 point shooting team, Mark yelled at the refs a while ago and told them that loss was on them.

Well, now they're getting their revenge.

Maryland players getting hacked and no calls, best players getting ghost fouls quickly to take them out of games.

More convinced now that the refs are spiteful and steer games.


Crooked lot.
You have a good team man.

Come in off that ledge bro.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1381 on: February 06, 2019, 08:07:22 PM »
Husker fans can jump or push the coach off the ledge
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

mcwterps1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1382 on: February 06, 2019, 08:17:19 PM »
2 BS charges, an elbow on the neck and back of Smith forcing him down on a FT, Roby pile drives Fernando under the basket knocking his teeth out, no call....if Fernando did that to Happ, he'd be arrested on the spot.

Smith swats at the ball but doesn't hit the ball, goes into the back court, no call, "saved" to Roby, whose foot was out of bounds, no call.....

Geez.  These officials are horrible.

mcwterps1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1383 on: February 06, 2019, 08:21:05 PM »
And then Fernando does something that should get him ejected, no call. 

These officials, man. 

They should have looked at that  

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1384 on: February 06, 2019, 08:34:30 PM »
the Fernando "step" I saw both ways

the Husker that flopped tried to tangle legs when Fernando went up for the shot - dangerous

I'm fine with the no call

obviously, Coach Miles was NOT
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

mcwterps1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1385 on: February 06, 2019, 08:38:42 PM »
the Fernando "step" I saw both ways

the Husker that flopped tried to tangle legs when Fernando went up for the shot - dangerous

I'm fine with the no call

obviously, Coach Miles was NOT
That was terrible.
If that was another team stepping on our guys, I'd be swinging at air going ballistic.
That's how I look at calls.  "If that was us/them, would I be upset".
Fernando should be ejected for that. 
You could see a flop there, but the elbow was enough evidence to go the other way.

 

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