2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

1. MSU, UM, PU
2. UMD
3. UW, IOWA
4. OSU, MN
5. UNL, IU, NU, UI, RU
6. PSU

I realize that IU lost a slew of games prior to their big upset but they just beat MSU and they have a road win over PSU so we aren't moving them down to tier-5 yet.  What will be interesting is to see how the Hoosiers do in their next two games (vIA, vtOSU).  For now both are projected wins but I think either one could go either way so we'll wait and see on the Hoosiers.  
There is significant debate among the posters here as to whether tier-2 should be Maryland or Wisconsin.  That makes a difference for home games against tier-1 teams and road games against tier-4 teams:
Maryland:

• vM:  2/16
• vMSU: not played 
• vPU:  2/12
• @tOSU:  W 75-61
• @MN:  W 82-67

They are 2-0 with two to play, they stay in tier-2 at least for now.  

Wisconsin:

• vM:  W 64-54
• vMSU:  2/12
• vPU:  L 84-80
• @tOSU:  3/10
• @MN:  2/6

They are 1-1 with three to play, we'll keep them in tier-3 at least for now.  If they win in Minneapolis on Wednesday we'll move them up.  

Thus, for the time being, the updated tiers are:

• Purdue, MSU-1, Michigan-2
• Maryland-1
• Wisconsin+1 (+2,-1), Iowa
• tOSU+2, Minnesota+1, Indiana (+1,-1)
• Northwestern+1, Illinois (+1,-1), Rutgers (+1,-1), Nebraska (+1,-1)
• PSU-1

Thus, the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 17-3/26-5 Michigan State (wins tiebreaker over PU based on record against M)
• 17-3/24-7 Purdue
• 16-4/27-4 Michigan
• 14-6/23-8 Maryland
• 12-8/20-11 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker over IA based on H2H, won in Iowa City)
• 12-8/23-8 Iowa
• 9-11/19-12 Ohio State
• 8-12/18-13 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over IU based on H2H, no game in Bloomington)
• 8-12/17-14 Indiana
• 7-13/11-20 Illinois (wins tiebreaker over NU based on record against Maryland)
• 7-13/16-15 Northwestern
• 6-14/13-17 Rutgers
• 5-15/15-16 Nebraska
• 2-18/9-22 Penn State

The projected match-ups at the BTT in Chicago are:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019:

• #11 Northwestern vs #14 Penn State, 9pm on BTN
• #12 Rutgers vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):

• #5 Wisconsin vs NU/PSU. 3pm on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Illinois, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Minnesota vs #9 Indiana, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Michigan State vs MN/IU, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Purdue vs tOSU/IL, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Michigan vs IA/RU/UNL, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Maryland vs UW/NU/PSU, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• MSU/MN/IU vs UMD/UW/NU/PSU, 1pm on CBS
• PU/tOSU/IL vs M/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• MSU/MN/IU/UMD/UW/NU/PSU vs PU/tOSU/IL/M/IA/RU/UNL, 3:30pm on CBS

[betarhoalphadelta]

It was my first real time watching Minnesota. If you saw the game, Painter did something he's never done all season--put Tre Williams and Matt Haarms on the court at the same time.

I read a little bit more about this. Painter said that he realized in the game that the defensive rotations just weren't working at all. He had first tried to invert the 4/5 matchups defensively, but it didn't accomplish what he needed. So he put both bigs in. 

[boilerbanger]

Based on this being predictive I would move Wiscy to tier II. The rest looks good. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on this being predictive I would move Wiscy to tier II. The rest looks good.

I think you are right, but I am waiting for the result of Wisconsin's game at MN tomorrow night.  In tier-2 they should win.  In tier-3 they should lose.  I think they will win and, if they do, I'll move them up.  However, if they lose, they'll need to stay in tier-3.  
There is a case for moving Michigan-2 down and/or Ohio State+2 up.  
Michigan:
The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is the projected result in road games against tier-3 teams:

• @IA:  L 74-59
• @UW:  L 64-54

The thing is that if we move Wisconsin up (see above) then that will no longer be a negative upset.  

Ohio State:
The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the projected result in home games against tier-2 and road games against tier-5:

• vUMD:  L 75-61
• @NU:  3/6
• @IL:  W 77-67 (actually neutral site but treated as the road game that it replaced)
• @RU:  L 64-61
• @UNL:  W 70-60

The Buckeyes are 2-2 in these games with one more to play.  In tier-4 they are +2 but in tier-3 they would be -2.  

My plan at this point:
If Wisconsin wins in Minneapolis on Wednesday I'll move the Badgers up and leave the Wolverines where they are.  If the Badgers lose in Minneapolis on Wednesday I'll move Michigan down and leave Wisconsin where they are.  

For Ohio State, I'm going to leave them for now.  If they acquire a negative upset then they'll move to a net -1 and we'll leave them in tier-4.  If they acquire another positive upset then they'll move to a net +3 and I'll move them up so that they drop back to -1.  

[847badgerfan]

"If Wisconsin wins in Minneapolis on Wednesday I'll move the Badgers up and leave the Wolverines where they are.  If the Badgers lose in Minneapolis on Wednesday I'll move Michigan down and leave Wisconsin where they are."  



This is what I think should happen. I don't think UW will win tomorrow night.

[medinabuckeye1]

Simplified version, update on tiers:

All schools are within +/-1 except Michigan (-2) and Ohio State (+2).  

Michigan:
After the Wisconsin/Minnesota game tomorrow night we'll either move Wisconsin up or Michigan down.  Either way Michigan's loss to Wisconsin will no longer be an "upset" and, provided that they win at Rutgers tonight, they'll be within +/-1.  

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are in a no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4.  They are too good for tier-4 as evidenced by the fact that they are currently +2 in that tier.  However, they are not good enough for tier-3 as evidenced by the fact that they would be -2 if we moved them up.  That pretty much lines up with @bwarbiany 's post of the massey composite which has Ohio State (#34) about half way between the lowest tier-3 team (Iowa at #24) and the next highest* tier-4 team (Indiana at #45).  

*I left out #35 Nebraska because I think we are all agreed that they are a MUCH worse team now than they were prior to the injury and that #35 ranking is largely a relic of when they were a better team.  

Once @ELA posts his weekly Tuesday updated Massey Composite I'll offer a comparison of that to our tiers for discussion.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

I don't know that I agree with moving Michigan down. I get that they're -2, but as a lot of us point out, it's a lot easier to have negative variance from the top than from the bottom. Both losses were to tough teams, both on the road. About the only "bad" thing about either loss was that they were a decently-large margin. 

Both games, they shot absolutely dreadfully. When you're a defensive team (currently KenPom #1 in defensive efficiency), a poor shooting night kills you. 

But the question is whether you honestly would predict Michigan to lose those games more than 50% of the time if they played them again? I'm not sure I would predict that.

[847badgerfan]

I'm interested in seeing Michigan at Rutgers tonight. That RAC place has been really tough on visitors.

[ELA]

Massey composite rankings (62 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (does not count last night's result)...

• Duke (1)
• Virginia (2)
• Gonzaga (5)
• Tennessee (4)
• MICHIGAN STATE (3)
• MICHIGAN (6)
• North Carolina (7)
• Kentucky (9)
• Virginia Tech (12)
• Kansas (8)
• PURDUE (10)
• Nevada (11)
• Houston (13)
• Iowa State (15)
• Villanova (16)
• WISCONSIN (20)
• Louisville (14)
• Marquette (21)
• Texas Tech (18)
• Auburn (-)
• LSU (17)
• MARYLAND (22)
• IOWA (-)
• Buffalo (24)
• Mississippi State (-)

• 34. Ohio State (32)
• 37. Nebraska (30)
• 46. Indiana (42)
• 48. Minnesota (46)
• 65. Northwestern (59)
• 98. Penn State (98)
• 99. Rutgers (103)
• 105. Illinois (113)

[medinabuckeye1]

Our tiers with +/- and (Massey composite from @ELA 's post):

• MSU-1 (5), M-2 (6), PU (11)
• UMD-1 (22)
• UW+1 (16), IA (23)
• tOSU+2 (34), IU (46), MN+1 (48)
• UNL (37), NU (65), RU (99), IL (105)
• PSU (98)

Where we disagree with the computers:

• As per @bwarbiany 's post, moving Michigan down does NOT match up with Massey at all.  
• Per Massey, it looks like UW should move up.  As discussed earlier, they will if they win in Minneapolis.  
• Per Massey, UMD is behind UW and close to IA.  Eh, we'll see.  
• As discussed above, Ohio State appears to be in no-mans-land between tier-3 and tier-4.  
• Nebraska is WAY higher in Massey than we have them.  I think we are agreed that their Massey ranking is largely a relic of a time (a few weeks ago and prior) when they were a much better team.  
• They have PSU better than RU and IL.  Maybe, we'll see.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Another week should tell us a lot about Wisconsin. They have currently 3 projected losses in the next 3 games. Moved up a tier, that moves to a 2-1 projection with wins away at Minnesota and home vs MSU. 

Iowa will depend a lot on whether they win @Indiana on Thursday. There's decent separation between the teams in the composite rankings... Is that enough for a win on the road? After that, we don't see another meaningful test until Feb 19 when Maryland comes to Iowa City. 

Maryland is @Nebraska tomorrow, a game that should absolutely be a win. Then they host Purdue next Tuesday, a game that we project MD winning in College Park. I think a loss in either is probably grounds for a move down, and the two games following those (@Mich / @Iowa) are projected losses with our current tiers or if they move down. 

[mcwterps1]

Maryland is @Nebraska tomorrow, a game that should absolutely be a win. Then they host Purdue next Tuesday, a game that we project MD winning in College Park. I think a loss in either is probably grounds for a move down, and the two games following those (@Mich / @Iowa) are projected losses with our current tiers or if they move down.

Nebraska is not ranked, so maybe, and no one shoots threes better in our gym than the other team, so Purdue will have a field day. 

[847badgerfan]

Another week should tell us a lot about Wisconsin.  

I feel like I've been saying this for a month. The reality is that the conference is as strong, top-to-bottom, as it's ever been. There are no gimmies. Even a game against lowly PSU is hard, particularly on the road.

[847badgerfan]

I just turned on the Illinois game to see them wearing retro uniforms, in their contest against Oregon.