SP+ rankings...
4) Michigan (25.4) - #8 offense, #9 defense, #3 special teams
14) Penn State (15.7) - #46 offense, #6 defense, #68 special teams
SP+ has Michigan as a 12 point favorite and gives them a win probability of nearly 77%.
Side note: Michigan and Georgia are the only teams in the country that rank in the SP+ top 10 nationally on offense, defense and special teams.