Teams with 1st Loss Week 8:
Syracuse
Mississippi
UCLA
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 8:
South Alabama
Kansas State
(James Madison)
Central Florida
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season:
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Week 6: 6.25% (1 of 16)
Week 7: 40% (6 of 15)
Week 8: 33.3% (3 of 9)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
4: TCU, Ohio State/Michigan, Clemson, Georgia/Tennessee
-UCLA's loss eliminated our final potential undefeated team from the PAC-12.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-With Syracuse/Clemson having been played and with Ole Miss losing to LSU, we now only have two remaining possible game between undefeated teams before bowl season and they are Georgia/Tennessee and Ohio State/Michigan. There are no possible games between undefeated teams in the conference championship games.
-We lost a 1/3 of our undefeated teams again this week. That has been a pretty typical type percent with only week 6 being notably off (only 1 of 16 teams losing). That will likely change soon as the smaller number leads to more diverging percents, but it is always amazing how long it stays mostly within that range.
-It is all but official that every renaming unbeaten in a power 5 conference and every 1-loss team in the SEC now completely control their own destiny. We can argue a few others too (I'd say Illinois), but I think that much at least is outside much dispute. We have never have had more than 3 unbeatens in major conferences in the BCS/CFP era, but it always something to watch each year. With UCLA's loss to Oregon, there are no longer any potential undefeated teams to come out of the PAC-12.
-Speaking a bit more on the PAC-12, the conference's CFP hopes now rest in its 3 teams with 1-loss. I am not sure which of the the three has the best chance if they win out, but Oregon is favorite to win the conference right now. The magnitude of their first loss will hurt (in 2017, the degree of Ohio State's loss to Iowa is probably why that 1-loss conference champ missed out), but the loss was game one, Oregon has gained respect for what the program has become, and it is possible Georgia ends up an overall #1. Ideally for the PAC-12 one of USC, UCLA, and Oregon win out and they get some help elsewhere. As most 1-loss conference champs have made it to the CFP, they are very much still in it, but they need one of them win out for sure.
-The games this week were played on October 22nd. That is well over a month until the conference championship games. Clemson will already have a spot mathematically locked in if they win one more game or if both Syracuse and Wake Forest lose one. The question now becomes, if Clemson loses one, how much does it hurt? If they lose 1, but win the ACC, how would they compare vs. a 1-loss PAC-12, Big 12, Big Ten Champ? They can avoid those questions by winning out. Regardless, I think they are the ACC's only legitimate shot left. Even winning out, I can't see Syracuse making it without also being ACC Champions outside of a lot of chaos.
-Purdue lost to Wisconsin in the Big Ten West showing the Badgers are still a factor even if just as spoilers. That puts Illinois firmly as the team to beat in the west, but the division is still fairly open. In the east, Penn State won handily over Minnesota. That keeps them very much in the race if they can beat Ohio State next week.
-The Ole Miss loss to LSU removes them from the unbeaten, but they still control their destiny in the SEC West. If they manage an unlikely upset over Alabama, they will almost certainly go to Atlanta. More likely, they now cannot afford too many more losses if the they want to make a New Years 6 bowl.
-TCU beat Kansas State to remain the Big 12's loan unbeaten and Oklahoma State beat Texas. Both losers of those games are still very much in the Big 12 race, but TCU and Oklahoma State are the favorites now and are also the only two with much of a chance at a playoff bowl. TCU completely controls their destiny, but if Oklahoma State wins out and beats TCU in a rematch, they stand a pretty strong chance. Kansas State and Texas can still win the Big 12, but that is now probably as high as they can go.
-Is Liberty the best independent this year? After dominating BYU, they are a lot closer to a New Years 6 then BYU or Notre Dame. Their only loss was a 1-point one to a ranked Wake Forest. They will definitely be underdogs coming up, but have a lot to play for still.
-Last week, a poster on the other forum I post this to (somewhat larger Group of 5 focus there) posted the amount of Group of 5 conference teams remaining undefeated and with 1-loss at this point in this season vs. at this point in other years. Suffice to say, this year is an outlier comparable with 2014 where Boise State made it to the Fiesta Bowl with 2 losses. Since he posted that, we lost half our remaining 1-loss teams (although one wasn't eligible) with South Alabama, James Madison, and UCF all losing. There are still three 1-loss teams from Group of Five conferences left standing and one could well win out, but I have to think he was right. The odds, even last week, were for a 2-loss champ this year, and they increased further after last week.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-We have one game between an undefeated and a 1-loss team this week.
-Undefeated Ohio State at 1-loss Penn State: Is the Big Ten East race a 2 or a 3 team race. That is what this game will determine. If Penn State wins, they are still very much in the race. If they lose, the division will almost certainly be Ohio State or Michigan's.
-Undefeated TCU @ West Virginia: The Horned Frogs are a little over a touchdown road favorite. West Virginia is good enough to win this at home. The Big 12's best hope is for TCU to keep winning.
-Undefeated Georgia vs. Florida: Florida is a huge underdog in the World's Largest Cocktail Party. Maybe the rivalry will inspire something. Missouri kept Georgia close.
-1-loss Oklahoma State @ Kansas State: Both teams have one conference loss and the line is even on this game between Big 12 title contenders. A second loss would really hurt in the conference championship race and it would kill Oklahoma State's playoff bowl hopes.
1-loss Illinois at Nebraska: Illinois is the favorite in the Big Ten West now, but if they lose this, the division looks wide open again.
-1-loss Cincinnati at Central Florida: Both teams are very much alive for the American Championship, but UCF has much less margin for error. Cincinnati completely controls their NY6 hopes, but UCF would likely take the spot too if they win out. The line is only by a point for Cincinnati.
-Kentucky at undefeated Tennessee: Earlier in the year, I was wondering which of these two would compete with Georgia most in the east. That answer is definitely Tennessee, but the Vols have Georgia coming up the following week, are still high from the Alabama win, and are not shoe-in for this game.
1-loss Coastal Carolina at Marshall: Coastal Carolina is by far the Sun Belt's best chance for a a major bowl, but they are a slight road underdog in this. Lose this, and the Sun Belt will have no 1-loss teams left.
Michigan State at undefeated Michigan: I can't see the Spartans winning this, but they have taken some they shouldn't from Michigan the last few years.
Pitt at 1-loss North Carolina: North Carolina is the favorite on that side of the conference, but the line is close here and a loss might change that.
Notre Dame at 1-loss Syracuse: The Orange lost a rough one last week, but are still playing for a New Years 6 bowl. That would be huge for the program. They are small favorites here.
1-loss Wake Forest at Louisville: Like Syracuse, Wake Forest is still playing for a New Years 6 bowl. They might well have to win out to get it though. They are a 5.5 point favorite.
1-loss Ole Miss at Texas A&M: Ole Miss still controls their destiny for the CFP, but even if a loss to Alabama takes that away later, they are still in the running for a New Years 6 bowl with 2-losses (maybe 3). That makes this game with the Aggies important no matter what.
Stanford @ 1-loss UCLA: I wouldn't not this one with the line, but it will probably be the final time UCLA hosts this instate rival for awhile.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 2, total: 6
Clemson
Michigan
Ohio State
Texas Christian
Georgia
Tennessee
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 15
Wake Forest
North Carolina
Cincinnati
Tulane
Illinois
Oregon
Liberty
Alabama
Penn State
Southern California
Oklahoma State
Coastal Carolina
Syracuse
Mississippi
UCLA
Remaining Winless Teams:
none
