This is the way I see it. By year 3, you should pretty much know what kind of coach you have. Not saying any coach should win the MNC (or CFP) by year 3, but the good ones have their program where it will always be by the 3rd year, unless you're somebody like Kansas State or some other ne'er do well (Vanderbilt, Kansas, take your pick).
If Sark is going to take Texas to another level, he has to sustain what he did in year 3 in year 4. Jimbo couldn't do it for A&M. By year 3, we finished ranked #4 or something. By year 4, we finished unranked. It didn't help that our starting QB was new, and knocked out early in the season (Haynes King, starter for GT now). And then our back-ups went down as well. Honestly, it really doesn't matter because it happens to every program (sometimes it doesn't seem like it though).
It is true that Sark is starting a new QB, but he's not new to the program, and he's played in several games. He's also from the bluest of the blue blood football families.
If the game was neutral or Austin, I'd give the LH the edge. In Columbus, I have to give OSU the edge by 3. I'd say 27-24. Arch will be the wildcard. If he plays well, Texas could very easily win by 10. I don't see Texas winning close if they win. If they win, it will be 37-20 or something. Close, OSU by 3.