39. Louisville Cardinal |
#10 in ACC |
Is there life after Lamar Jackson? Bobby Petrino has been putting together potent offenses with a variety of types of quarterbacks long before Lamar Jackson showed up at Louisville, and something tells me he will continue to. It seems like the keys will be handed to junior Jawon Pass, who was efficient in limited action last year, and he will be given some toys to play with. The Cardinals return probably the top wide receiver duo in the ACC, in Jaylen Smith and Dez Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was playing like a freshman all-American the first half of the season, culminating with back to back 125+ yard games against NC State and Boston College in early October. It’s unclear if he had a nagging injury, teams started realizing they should cover the freshman, or he wore down, but he wasn’t the same player in the second half. Jaylen Smith never slowed down, finishing second in the ACC with 98.0 receiving yards per game, and leading qualified players, averaging 16.3 yards per reception. The defense is in slightly worse shape, but lets be honest, it’s not about defense at Louisville. They have a lot of youth, starting with the guy running the thing, Dorian Etheridge, the sophomore middle linebacker. Etheridge took over the job last year as a true freshman, and all he did was lead the team in tackles. As he progresses and becomes a smarter player, the sky is the limit. He could already be one of the best middle linebackers in the nation as just a true sophomore. Etheride in the middle allows his running mate, Jon Greenard to attack from the outside. He racked up a team leading 7 sacks last year, but is going to be asked to do more this year as well. The reason is a lack of help behind them. They need to generate a lot more quarterback pressure this year, after losing 3/4 of their starting secondary, including a pair of all-conference cornerbacks.
Key PlayersWR | | Jaylen Smith, Senior |
WR | | Dez Fitzpatrick, Sophomore |
K | | Blanton Creque, Junior |
| . | |
LB | | Dorian Etheridge, Sophomore |
LB | | Jon Greenard, Junior |
S | | Dee Smith, Senior |
38. Fresno State Bulldogs |
#2 in Mountain West |
Sometimes we talk about rebuild jobs being a year ahead of schedule. I think it’s fair to say Jeff Tedford was two years ahead of schedule. The Bulldogs had been 4-20 over the previous two years, and had major roster turnover following a 2016 season that saw them lose every conference game. I had them as one of the 15 worst FBS teams last year. Blowout September losses on the road at Alabama and Washington were expected but forgivable. Suddenly they turned it around, won 8 of their next 9, including a win over #25 Boise State. They had a rematch with the Broncos in the conference championship game, and led in the fourth quarter before letting it slip away. Considering 2017 was supposed to be a total reboot, that was beyond unbelievable. Now the goal for 2018 has suddenly moved from maybe getting respectable to winning a conference championship. And hell, they should be even better next year. They return 16 starters, including all of their key skill position players from that team. They return not one, not two, but three all conference players on both the offensive line and the secondary. They only lose one player who caught a pass last season, and quarterback Marcus McMaryion returns as well. Think Oregon State wishes they hadn’t let him walk? If there is any weakness it’s on the defensive line. Having such a talented secondary will allow them to cover for that. Expect bringing just four to be the exception, not the rule. There is plenty of faith at leaving the secondary alone to handle business in the back. McMaryion did a good job of exactly what was thought he couldn’t do. He played within himself, and he kept the Bulldogs on schedule. On expected passing downs, Fresno State was terrible, among the worst in FBS in terms of S&P+, but were an average offense. How? They simply avoided expected passing downs. The defense was probably the best in program history. It’s tough to match “best in program history” no matter what, but for a defense that was led by line play, simply expecting them to flip to being led from the back up, and lose nothing, is some amount of blind faith. More likely is that the offense improves again, to maybe being a top 30-40 offense, and negate any defensive regression.
Key PlayersQB | | Marcus McMaryion, Senior |
WR | | KeeSean Johnson, Senior |
T | | Christian Cronk, Senior |
| . | |
LB | | Jeffrey Allison, Junior |
CB | | Jaron Bryant, Junior |
S | | Mike Bell, Junior |