ELA 130 Team Countdown

[CatsbyAZ]

31. Oregon Ducks

#5 in Pac XII

Key Players

TE		Jake Breeland, Junior
C		Jake Hanson, Junior
G		Calvin Throckmorton, Junior
	.
DE		Jalen Jelks, Senior
LB		Troy Dye, Junior
S		Ugo Amadi, Senior

30. NC State Wolfpack

#7 in ACC

Key Players

QB		Ryan Finley, Senior
WR		Kelvin Harmon, Junior
C		Garrett Bradbury, Senior
	.
LB		Germaine Pratt, Senior
S		Jarius Morehead, Junior
P		A.J. Cole, Senior

Both Oregon and NCSt don't have the horses to finish as high as they are ranked here. Both shed too much production to count on reloading and for Oregon, I know bowl performances don't dictate the offseason, but topping off an unimpressive hire was a minimal Las Vegas Bowl showing. It's hard to put such a lifeless effort out of mind and puts in question how hard the Ducks even want to play for their new coach.
For NCSt, even though the program is in stable shape and shows improvement every year under Doeren, we'll know by midseason whether he was worth such a pricey contract extension, which I predict not. If the Wolfpack qualify for a bowl this is a successful rebuilding year given the offseason personnel losses, some of which is irreplaceable talent.
Oregon is in better shape because of the schedule, but for all the ACC teams clustered in the lower 30s I predict they fall out and finish below a UNC team ranked in the 70s/80s by a guy who has a lot more reason to motivate his talent.

[ELA]

28. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

#6 in ACC

Wake Forest is the next in the group of really good middle part of the ACC.  The question for them is the same as it is for all the other ones, how to take that next step up to compete with Clemson.  Aside from a hiccup in the season finale against Duke, the Demon Deacons were playing really good football to close last season.  No shame in a loss in South Bend, and otherwise they beat Louisville, NC State, Texas A&M and on the road at Syracuse.  Their offense really sprung to life, averaging 41.8 ppg over those final six.  The offense returns fairly in tact, with the notable exception of quarterback John Wolford.  They don’t toally lack for experience.  Kendall Hinton began 2015 as the starter as a true freshman.  After an injury and falling to second string, he now has a chance to retake the job as a redshirt junior three years later.  Assuming he isn’t a major dropoff, the rest of the offense looks ready to roll.  The entire starting offensive line returns, including three All-ACC players.  Two of the three starting receivers return, led by Greg Dortch, who had a breakout freshman campaign as both a receiver and a kick returner.  The only surprising loss was second leading receiver.  Tabari Hines taking a graduate transfer to Oregon, but that may just open more chances for Scotty Washington who plays that deep threat better anyway.  The defense was last in the ACC at over 450 yards allowed per game, but they were also on the field more than any defense in the ACC, with 1,069 defensive snaps.  Their 5.6 ypp at least moves them up a tick to #11.  Under Dave Clawson, this is never going to be an elite defense, but they need to take advantage of the chances when they get them.  They surrendered first downs on nearly 40% of their opponents third down opportunities.  That needs to improve.  They finished tied for 2nd in the ACC in turnover differential, but at their pace of play, expecting to lead the conference in fewest turnovers in back to back years feels overly optimistic, so creating more turnovers, in addition to better third down defense, is where they can find massive hidden gains without overall defensive improvement.  That should come from the secondary which was loaded with sophomores a year ago.  The early departure to the NFL of Jessie Bates stings, but hard to blame a kid when he’s drafted in the second round.  Essang Bassey is ready to become a star at cornerback though.
Key Players

WR		Greg Dortch, Sophomore
T		Justin Herron, Senior
C		Ryan Anderson, Senior
	.
CB		Essang Bassey, Junior
S		Cameron Glenn, Senior
P		Dom Maggio, Junior

[Brutus Buckeye]

Man, those Acc teams are just dropping like flies all of a sudden. 

[DevilFroggy]

I clearly don't follow the ACC well enough so can someone explain when and how Wake Forest became good?

[ELA]

I clearly don't follow the ACC well enough so can someone explain when and how Wake Forest became good?

They didn't really "become good" so much as they are capable of being pretty good every once in a while.  They were 11-2 I think and won the ACC like a decade ago.  Picture that except there is a legit boss waiting at the end in Clemson, instead of an equally decent-ish Georgia Tech like they lucked into in 2006.

[ELA]

27. Utah Utes

#4 in Pac 12

2017 wasn't a disaster, but certainly didn't go to plan either, with a 6-6 regular season, followed bu a convincing win over West Virginia in their bowl game.  The schedule did them no favors, drawing the top 4 teams from the North as their crossover opponents, missing Cal and Oregon State.  The Utes went 0-4 in those games, but 3 were one score games, as 4 of their 6 losses overall were.  The offense should improve substantially, with the return of Tyler Huntley, as well as leading rusher Zack Moss.  More importantly, Troy Taylor is entering his second season, and his schematic overhaul last year now had a full offseason to gel.  If Moss can build off the way last season ended, that will eleviate a lot of the pressure from Huntley.  Moss had 346 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns in season ending wins over Colorado and West Virginia.  That was with Huntley missing the Colorado game, and not being effective against West Virginia.  It's on Taylor to figure out how to protect Huntley, both in terms of keeping him on the field, and protecting him from bad decisions.  His interception rate of 1 per 31.2 throws was the highest in the Pac 12 among quarterbacks who threw at least 250 passes, and why the Utes threw the second most interceptions in the league.  Huntley also missed 3 games with injury, and parts of two others.  He had 143 carries, without being particularly effective as a runner, with just 3.4 ypc.  You would think that was reason to try and limit his hits late in the year, but in spite of missing the entirety of the season finale with an injury, he closed the season with his three highest carries totals, being 20, 25 and 25.  Yet he ran for just 156 yards on those 70 carries.  Part of the problem last year was finding a reliable target aside from Oregon transfer Darren Carrington.  Now Carrington is gone, but while everyone else is back, none of them proved to be that #2 guy.  The pool of experienced players at wide receiver is so deep this year, that you have to imagine a couple guys will prove themselves.  Special teams isn't just a strength for this program right now, they are an absolute weapon.  Matt Gay returns as placekicker after setting a Pac 12 record with 30 made field goals, and winning in 2017 Lou Groza Award as the nation's best kicker.  Punter Mitch Wishnowski is a year removed from winning the Ray Guy Award as the nation's best punter in 2016, but he still led the Pac 12 in net punting, and was a finalist for the award against in 2017.  Those two help erase a lot of holes, of which this team, returning 16 starters overall, including 9 on defense, does not have many of.  USC is in a mini-reloading year after Sam Darnold, and have to come to Salt Lake City, and Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA are all undergoing coaching transitions.  The crossover games remain difficult, with Cal and Oregon State still off the schedule, and it's a 4 home/5 away year for the Utes.  But schedule aside, the division seems to break right for Utah.
Key Players

QB		Tyler Huntley, Junior
C		Lo Falemaka, Senior
K		Matt Gay, Senior
	.
DE		Bradlee Anae, Junior
CB		Julian Blackmon, Junior
P		Mitch Wishnowski, Senior

[Brutus Buckeye]

Kind of cool that they moved the BYU game back to Thanksgiving weekend, instead of in September or not at all. 

Now if we could just get Texas-aTm and Nebraska-Oklahoma back on the docket. 

[ELA]

26. Kansas State Wildcats

#3 in Big XII

Get ready for another stereotypical Phase 2 Bill Snyder team.  You probably can’t name a single starter if you aren’t a Big XII fan, but after a “rebuilding” 2017 season where they got some players some seasoning, they come back with a roster chalk full of starting experience.  The Wildcats didn’t list a single senior on offense in the bowl game two-deep.  They did have a couple of transfers though, most surprising being all-conference fullback Winston Dimel.  A whole lot is going to depend on quarterback health, which has been an ongoing issue since Collin Klein left following the 2012 season.  You’d be hard pressed to find a team with worse quarterback health luck over the past few seasons than Kansas State.  The upside to losing their top two quarterbacks a year ago is that it allowed redshirt freshman Skylar Thompson to see the field for the final six games of the season, being named Big XII Offensive Freshman of the Year.  He was wildly inconsistent, but the good looks really, really good.  In their win over Oklahoma State he completed 77% of his passes for over 200 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks; plus another 93 yards and a touchdown running the ball.  More important, he wins.  He took over a 3-4 team on a 3 game losing streak, and won 5 of their final 6.  The problem for Thompson, and I suppose good news for Kansas State, is that Alex Delton might be better.  Delton, healthy again, took over for an ineffective Thompson in the Cactus Bowl, was 7-10 for 52 yards and a TD, plus 158 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.  Jesse Ertz, the starter to begin 2017, is gone, but Delton and Thompson are both back.  Their skill sets are different enough that they may be able to co-exist.  Defensively, the line should be really good.  The question is whether they can be good enough to cover for the back end.  D.J. Reed left early for the NFL, but Duke Shelley, who earned all-conference honors playing across from him returns.  The question is, what is the issue if you had a pair of NFL caliber players at corner?  Because the secondary issues were massive.  The Wildcats surrendered over 300 ypg, second worst in the country.    They were also targeted the most times, facing 492 pass attempts.  Their completion percentage allowed and yards per pass allowed suggests volume was a big part of the problem, but at #85 in passing defense based on S&P+, there is plenty of room for improvement.  With Reed gone, that improvement may have to come in the form of what could be the best defensive line in the Big XII, generating more pressure with just four than they did last year.
Key Players

QB		Skylar Thompson, Sophomore
RB		Alex Barnes, Junior
T		Dalton Risner, Junior
	.
DE		Reggie Walker, Junior
DT		Trey Dishon, Junior
CB		Duke Shelley, Senior

[ELA]

Whoops, once again, grey on grey is tough to read

[Brutus Buckeye]

So his top 25: 7 Big Ten, 5 Sec, 5 Acc, 3 Pac Twelve, 2 Big XII, 1 Notre Dame, 1 Aac and 1 Mwc.

[fezzador]

So his top 25: 7 Big Ten, 5 Sec, 5 Acc, 3 Pac Twelve, 2 Big XII, 1 Notre Dame, 1 Aac and 1 Mwc.

Wait... there's more than 1 Notre Dame now?

[847badgerfan]

Wait... there's more than 1 Notre Dame now?

Seems like there are at least 8 of them, since they have the same spot at the table as the other 5 conferences. It takes 8 to make a conference, so yeah. 8. I'm sure they would like to get to 10, so they can play with themselves in a Dr. Pepper game.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Wait... there's more than 1 Notre Dame now?

There is the Notre Dame Falcons, out of Euclid Ohio. 
They are in the Mountain East (D2). 

[CatsbyAZ]

So his top 25: 7 Big Ten, 5 Sec, 5 Acc, 3 Pac Twelve, 2 Big XII, 1 Notre Dame, 1 Aac and 1 Mwc.

Like how Lindy's Mag breaks down the conference rankings by P5 divisions:
14. Sun Belt
13. MAC
12. CUSA
11. MTN W
10. AA
9. PAC 12 South
8. B10 West
7. PAC 12 North
6. Big 12
5. ACC Coastal
4. SEC East
3. ACC Atlantic
2. SEC West
1. Big Ten East