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Topic: Week 7 power rankings
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MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #14 on:** October 17, 2019, 10:33:58 AM »

So I did a quick rewatch of a condensed version, plays only, and the LSU/Florida game is still kind of mysterious.

I mentioned Florida was a couple plays--give or take--from going to OT in a game closer than the score.

I also noticed the second time around LSU was a couple plays--notably butterfingering a couple (non)INTs and a whiffed tackle on 3rd and long--from that being a total butt-kicking.

This is probably often the case when two good teams play, and I don't think it would influence my attempt to rank the teams any. What happens, happens.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #15 on:** October 17, 2019, 12:38:05 PM »

I usually think of games as who might win more often if they played 100 times, same situation. It's a hypothetical of course, but I've seen blowouts, as have we all, that seemed a lot closer than the score indicated, and vice versa.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #16 on:** October 17, 2019, 01:39:30 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 17, 2019, 12:38:05 PM

I usually think of games as who might win more often if they played 100 times, same situation.

I don't think people are very good at this. They either think it's 50/50 or 90/10, lol.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #17 on:** October 17, 2019, 03:03:34 PM »

Well, there is no absolute arbiter, just opinion. One can get a collective opinion looking at the betting spreads. A 7 point dog wins about 1 time in 3, for example.

With Florida and LSU, I'd OPINE LSU would win about 6 times in 10 on a neutral field.

Nashville4UGA · « **Reply #18 on:** October 17, 2019, 04:11:44 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2019, 03:26:13 PM

I'm beginning to really question our coaching at UGA, I suppose that isn't unusual among the fan base.

I'm not saying anyone should be fired, but this sort of occasional underperformance was something folks did not like about Richt. That game was mystifying. I guess teams can have a game where everything that could go wrong did.

I'd like to think that it was just one of those games where everything that could go wrong did....and it kind of did. 4 Turnovers. One of them was a pick 6. Hot Rod missed 2 FG's after not missing all year, although 6 penalties is not the end of the world the timing of them was terrible. One took us out of FG range.

I'm not sure where this narrative is coming from that South Carolina just pushed UGA around all game. The offense had pretty close to 475 yds despite the 4 turnovers. Fromm threw for close to 300 and UGA rushed for 170 or so. UGA also owned time of possession by almost 12 minutes.
I'll say this, i hope we've seen the last of #87. The ball that bounced off his hands that resulted in an int was inexcusable.

Other than 1 long TD play, SC's offense scored a FG in regulation, had 16 first downs, under 300 yds. It was just a really weird game. If just one of the events i mentioned above didn't happen UGA wins that game.

I think UGA will bounce back going forward.

LSU does look really good. I worry about their defense, though. Could this year's LSU-Alabama game be the highest scoring in their history?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #19 on:** October 17, 2019, 04:20:28 PM »

Yeah, that is a sane analysis I think, I hope. The game was SO frustrating, I kept thinking "OK, now we drive down the field for a TD and then repeat and repeat and put this out of reach.". Never happened obv.

Usually reliable people messed up.

Nashville4UGA · « **Reply #20 on:** October 17, 2019, 04:32:19 PM »

I also don't think we've seen the last of the foolishness this season from some other teams. There will be more upsets this season.. Happens every year. Someone like an Ohio State or Oklahoma or Alabama, or Clemson is going to slip up and lose to someone they never should either.

MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #21 on:** October 17, 2019, 05:00:38 PM »

Nashville,

Clanga absolutely pummeled LSU last time we went there, so if you're looking for upset alerts.....

Your talk about UGA gets to a more philosophical point I've wondered about Georgia for a while now. Fromm is good. There's maybe not really an alpha dog WR like an AJ Green, but there's guys who are good. Swift is a dangerous back, there's probably others. David Pollack said in his interview at LSU the other day that UGA is the last SEC team left in the SEC, and I've been thinking kind of the same thing. If you have UGA's talent and ability to do certain things that they can do, I'm not so sure why you wouldn't try to maximize your possessions and plays. That usually means going a little bit more pedal to the metal. Instead UGA kind of plays Tressel-ball and seems like they're trying to shorten the game up on opponents. The less your sample size, the greater the chance that an inferior team will pull something out. With a greater sample size, it becomes statistically harder for the "better" team to lose. i.e., if you're UGA, playing USCe, hypothetically you should want to run as many plays as possible, because the fewer plays there are, the greater the chance something wonky happens. And it probably did. I believe there is a time to be a RTDB team, but I think the Dawgs lean too heavily into that mindset sometimes.

LSU is a bit of an enigma on defense right now. They are the second best defense on a ypp basis in the SEC, behind Missouri. Second best in rushing ypc behind UGA, second best in comp% allowed behind Mizzou, and 5th best in passing ypa. But you're right that something is funky in the smell test. The advanced stats see it too, as neither SP+ nor FEI have too high an opinion of the Tiger defense. Somehow, despite all the ypp stats, they don't get off the field on 3rd down like they should. I believe they allow 47$ 3rd down conv, which is not good. I'm inclined to blame it on a subpar pass rush.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #22 on:** October 17, 2019, 05:20:30 PM »

I yell RTDB at the TV fairly often. We get 8 yards on first down, well, get the next one and get 4 more yards and repeat. I understand we can't run on every play, but I would until they stop us if it's a team like USCe or UK or UT. I might mix in some screens (which we seem to have forgotten exists) and short passes as Fromm is usually reliable.

But, RTDB. Use that 328 pound OL to wear down the other team and just run clock and gain yards. Run some toss sweeps, run off tackle, run traps, whatever, but RTDB.

I HATE being 2nd and 2 and end up punting. Hate it.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #23 on:** October 18, 2019, 08:50:58 AM »

I should remind myself of my own comments about how "we fans" tend to over react to a single game. When Wisconsin beat up Michigan, "we" figured Michigan was done, it was an ugly loss. They happen, Ohio State has had some lapses in recent years against inferior teams. Clemson pulled out a W against UNC while looking pretty bad.

It's "part of the game".

Nashville4UGA · « **Reply #24 on:** October 18, 2019, 03:59:54 PM »

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 17, 2019, 05:00:38 PM

Nashville,

Clanga absolutely pummeled LSU last time we went there, so if you're looking for upset alerts.....

Your talk about UGA gets to a more philosophical point I've wondered about Georgia for a while now. Fromm is good. There's maybe not really an alpha dog WR like an AJ Green, but there's guys who are good. Swift is a dangerous back, there's probably others. David Pollack said in his interview at LSU the other day that UGA is the last SEC team left in the SEC, and I've been thinking kind of the same thing. If you have UGA's talent and ability to do certain things that they can do, I'm not so sure why you wouldn't try to maximize your possessions and plays. That usually means going a little bit more pedal to the metal. Instead UGA kind of plays Tressel-ball and seems like they're trying to shorten the game up on opponents. The less your sample size, the greater the chance that an inferior team will pull something out. With a greater sample size, it becomes statistically harder for the "better" team to lose. i.e., if you're UGA, playing USCe, hypothetically you should want to run as many plays as possible, because the fewer plays there are, the greater the chance something wonky happens. And it probably did. I believe there is a time to be a RTDB team, but I think the Dawgs lean too heavily into that mindset sometimes.

LSU is a bit of an enigma on defense right now. They are the second best defense on a ypp basis in the SEC, behind Missouri. Second best in rushing ypc behind UGA, second best in comp% allowed behind Mizzou, and 5th best in passing ypa. But you're right that something is funky in the smell test. The advanced stats see it too, as neither SP+ nor FEI have too high an opinion of the Tiger defense. Somehow, despite all the ypp stats, they don't get off the field on 3rd down like they should. I believe they allow 47$ 3rd down conv, which is not good. I'm inclined to blame it on a subpar pass rush.

Georgia ran 95 plays against South Carolina. 51 of them were passes. The most Fromm has ever thrown in a game to my knowledge. It appears they were trying to go more pedal to the metal in the passing game to get more explosive plays. Lowest point total of the season....smh. The stat of the game was 4 turnovers and the pick 6. Otherwise Georgia wins that game comfortably.

63 vs. Vandy
65 vs. Murray State
66 vs. Arkansas State
59 vs. Notre Dame
65 vs. Tennessee
95 vs. South Carolina (5 of those was in overtime)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #25 on:** October 20, 2019, 11:52:34 AM »

LSU has looked impressive. At this point, I'd have them at #1. Bama would be a clear 2.

3 - Florida
4 - Auburn
5 - UGA
6 - Huh, A&M?

7. USCe
8. Mizzou

THen it gets pretty gnarly, but Tenn is showing some spunk.

MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #26 on:** October 20, 2019, 02:43:29 PM »

Quote from: Nashville4UGA on October 18, 2019, 03:59:54 PM

Georgia ran 95 plays against South Carolina. 51 of them were passes. The most Fromm has ever thrown in a game to my knowledge. It appears they were trying to go more pedal to the metal in the passing game to get more explosive plays. Lowest point total of the season....smh. The stat of the game was 4 turnovers and the pick 6. Otherwise Georgia wins that game comfortably.

63 vs. Vandy
65 vs. Murray State
66 vs. Arkansas State
59 vs. Notre Dame
65 vs. Tennessee
95 vs. South Carolina (5 of those was in overtime)

Yeah, sorry, what I mean is more along the lines of how UGA is designed. I'm not suggesting they can just magically go be something they're not at this point. More like I'm wondering why they haven't shifted their overall direction (before now) to be more geared for pouring it on.

I'm the last one to gripe about ball-control, suffocating defense teams. My team won a ton of games like that through the years. But there comes times when it hits a brick wall and it's good if teams are built to have that extra gear. I've seen two games recently between UGA and Bama that UGA should've won, but then they go conservative and try to run the clock out. Predictably, it doesn't work. It will work a lot. If you're gonna beat beasts like that, you're gonna have to throw punches until the whistle blows. Just like horror movies, they're never really dead.

MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #27 on:** October 21, 2019, 12:41:09 PM »

Somebody else can try this, I quit. These teams are all schizophrenic.

rtf4 was in NOLA this weekend, he was lucid until about 10 p.m. Saturday night and then I quit hearing from him. Could be days before he wakes up out of whatever ditch he passed out in.

Cincy, OAM, Badger, one of yall will have to do it.

I am losing some confidence in Alabama. More than any time in the last ten years, Saturday night looked suspiciously like this team could be Tua & The Other Guys. With Tua, it's still a great team. Without him, more mortal than I've seen in a while.

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Topic: Week 7 power rankings

MikeDeTiger

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