CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: MikeDeTiger on October 14, 2019, 02:53:58 PM
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I'm not good at this, but just as a starting point:
1) Bama -- had to work a little bit, but destroyed a team that's probably better than their final record will suggest
2) LSU -- gaining ground, need to fix some defensive issues. Punting twice against Florida is good
3) Florida -- blinked on a couple of plays that allowed a close game to look worse on the scoreboard
4) Auburn -- I don't know who else to put here. Oregon is still a good win and the DL is still excellent
5) Missouri -- defense has been good overall so far. Not quite sold on them as a dark horse for the east, but for now I'll put them here
6) UGA -- that was a pretty rough outing. Probably better than 6, but that team has problems right now
7) A&M -- no good games to speak of, but that schedule is brutal. I think I'd favor them right now on a neutral field against the rest of the teams, and maybe UGA if they played right now
8) USC -- yeah, I know, winning @ UGA they shouldn't be this low, but that's a resume point which doesn't go in a power poll, and I still have trouble believing in this team, especially with the injuries they're looking at after Saturday. Nice defense tho. Beat Florida and I'll move them way up
9) Ole Miss -- decent showing against a decent Mizzou team. Not great, not terrible
10) Tenn -- an FBS win! This team is playing harder the last few weeks, need to keep it going
11) Clanga -- not a good look, Cowbells. The Moorhead era post-Simmons/Sweat is off to a bad start
12) Kentucky -- okay win vs. an Arkansas team that's starting to show small signs of life, I guess
13) Arky -- see above about showing signs of life. But still quite a ways to go before revived and conscious
14) Vandy -- back to being Vandy it appears. Losing to UNLV is inexcusable, let alone getting thrashed
This list sucks. Polls are dumb.
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list looks fine. few changes:
i might swap lsu and bama. they're both playing pretty well right now, but lsu has done it vs good opposition twice now. bama hasn't even done it once yet. not that they can't or won't, but just haven't had chance. also, if both don't screw up, we'll have another 1v2 in tuscaloosa. any chance cbs doesn't pick that up as the night game? (please, oh please)
would probably put uga 5th and mizzou 6th for a power ranking. i still think uga wins east at seasons end, but right now i'd take uf over uga, then uga over everyone else in east. mizzou no slouch, though, and uga trending down.
tenn starting to show signs of life. if they challenge bama even as much as aTm and usc did (which wasn't all that much, tbh) then i'll start to believe in them a little. at least it's moving in right direction, though.
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1. Bama
2. LSU
3. Florida
4. Auburn
5. Georgia
6. Missouri (probation sucks for them this year)
7. aTm
8. usc
9. Kentucky
10. Ole Miss
11. Tennessee
12. Arkansas
13. msu
14. Vandy
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i might swap lsu and bama. they're both playing pretty well right now, but lsu has done it vs good opposition twice now. bama hasn't even done it once yet.
Your sandbagging doesn't fool me.
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All we had to do was lose to get respect!
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Although I *think* UA is a better overall team top to bottom, I'd swap LSU over Bama, simply because I still believe Duke is the best team Bama has played. Otherwise, no arguments from me.
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I'm beginning to really question our coaching at UGA, I suppose that isn't unusual among the fan base.
I'm not saying anyone should be fired, but this sort of occasional underperformance was something folks did not like about Richt. That game was mystifying. I guess teams can have a game where everything that could go wrong did.
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Cincy, I gotta say... that was a tough, conference (under-appreciated) rivalry game but--
That game floored me. Absolutely out of left field. Not sure what happened but it beat all odds. Maybe the Athens boys partied last Friday night? Eesh.
While I agree you don't want to flip out, UGA is way too loaded for that performance (and, as you say, it's not unknown from the last staff).
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list looks fine. few changes:
i might swap lsu and bama. they're both playing pretty well right now, but lsu has done it vs good opposition twice now. bama hasn't even done it once yet. not that they can't or won't, but just haven't had chance. also, if both don't screw up, we'll have another 1v2 in tuscaloosa. any chance cbs doesn't pick that up as the night game? (please, oh please)
would probably put uga 5th and mizzou 6th for a power ranking. i still think uga wins east at seasons end, but right now i'd take uf over uga, then uga over everyone else in east. mizzou no slouch, though, and uga trending down.
tenn starting to show signs of life. if they challenge bama even as much as aTm and usc did (which wasn't all that much, tbh) then i'll start to believe in them a little. at least it's moving in right direction, though.
Although I *think* UA is a better overall team top to bottom, I'd swap LSU over Bama, simply because I still believe Duke is the best team Bama has played. Otherwise, no arguments from me.
Per http://teamrankings.com (https://t.co/LrVIFrCYNK), Alabama has played the 5th toughest schedule so far, the hardest schedule among all the undefeated teams.
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As is often the case, the UGA-USC game hinged on turnovers (among other things). But, UGA was not effective on offense anyway. They would often get a nice 7-8 yard run on 1st down, throw an incomplete pass, and get stuffed on third, or so it seemed to me. USC managed to get very good pressure on Fromm, one example resulted in their pick six (when UGA was driving) and others resulted in sacks and errant throws. UGA had allowed only one sack all year, USC got three or four, coupled with near sacks many more times. Running plays were usually successful, 5-9 yards per rush was typical other than on 3rd down and short, that issue has remained a problem.
It was like the first half against Tennessee in some ways. Anyway, they obviously are not the kind of team that can steam roll inferior teams consistently.
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Per http://teamrankings.com (https://t.co/LrVIFrCYNK), Alabama has played the 5th toughest schedule so far, the hardest schedule among all the undefeated teams.
It's difficult to accurately rate the schedule strength of the top teams. Why? Most people view a tough schedule by how many games you play against teams that could realistically beat you. The problem with this is the better you are, the fewer teams there are that can pose a real threat. So while Bama's SOS is strong based on logarithms (objective), their SOS seems weaker because Carolina and A&M weren't viewed as real threats by the masses.
That being said, LSU's schedule has obviously been tougher, as these objective logarithms tend to differentiate between the teams with no real threat to beat you when they can honestly all just be thrown in a bargain bin. LSU has beaten 2 top ten teams in Texas and Florida. These are both better than either of Bama's wins over Carolina and A&M. To a computer, Duke and Southern Miss are better than Utah St or GA Southern and the other patsies on LSU's schedule, but they're all no-chance-to-win teams when facing a Bama or an LSU. Bargain bin.
I think most of us would agree. And whether you think Bama will beat LSU or not - now, based on who they've played (and beaten), LSU's resume is better.
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Yup. A top team like Alabama has few tough opponents who realistically could defeat them. I don't count teams like Duke for that reason. LSU beat Florida and Texas, teams that could beat them potentially. Whoever else they played doesn't really count either.
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Per http://teamrankings.com (https://t.co/LrVIFrCYNK), Alabama has played the 5th toughest schedule so far, the hardest schedule among all the undefeated teams.
i don't care what some random website says about bama sos compared to lsu's. from an ease of navagation perspective, i'd take bama's schedule so far over lsu's, no question.
we haven't played a team that could beat bama unless bama completely falls apart with multiple turnovers and probably some fluky plays and injuries as well. lsu has played 2 teams that if lsu doesn't play lights out, could very easily win, and it wouldn't really be much of an upset.
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All we had to do was lose to get respect!
I definitely plan on moving LSU to #1 when we lose.
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So I did a quick rewatch of a condensed version, plays only, and the LSU/Florida game is still kind of mysterious.
I mentioned Florida was a couple plays--give or take--from going to OT in a game closer than the score.
I also noticed the second time around LSU was a couple plays--notably butterfingering a couple (non)INTs and a whiffed tackle on 3rd and long--from that being a total butt-kicking.
This is probably often the case when two good teams play, and I don't think it would influence my attempt to rank the teams any. What happens, happens.
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I usually think of games as who might win more often if they played 100 times, same situation. It's a hypothetical of course, but I've seen blowouts, as have we all, that seemed a lot closer than the score indicated, and vice versa.
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I usually think of games as who might win more often if they played 100 times, same situation.
I don't think people are very good at this. They either think it's 50/50 or 90/10, lol.
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Well, there is no absolute arbiter, just opinion. One can get a collective opinion looking at the betting spreads. A 7 point dog wins about 1 time in 3, for example.
With Florida and LSU, I'd OPINE LSU would win about 6 times in 10 on a neutral field.
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I'm beginning to really question our coaching at UGA, I suppose that isn't unusual among the fan base.
I'm not saying anyone should be fired, but this sort of occasional underperformance was something folks did not like about Richt. That game was mystifying. I guess teams can have a game where everything that could go wrong did.
I'd like to think that it was just one of those games where everything that could go wrong did....and it kind of did. 4 Turnovers. One of them was a pick 6. Hot Rod missed 2 FG's after not missing all year, although 6 penalties is not the end of the world the timing of them was terrible. One took us out of FG range.
I'm not sure where this narrative is coming from that South Carolina just pushed UGA around all game. The offense had pretty close to 475 yds despite the 4 turnovers. Fromm threw for close to 300 and UGA rushed for 170 or so. UGA also owned time of possession by almost 12 minutes.
I'll say this, i hope we've seen the last of #87. The ball that bounced off his hands that resulted in an int was inexcusable.
Other than 1 long TD play, SC's offense scored a FG in regulation, had 16 first downs, under 300 yds. It was just a really weird game. If just one of the events i mentioned above didn't happen UGA wins that game.
I think UGA will bounce back going forward.
LSU does look really good. I worry about their defense, though. Could this year's LSU-Alabama game be the highest scoring in their history?
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Yeah, that is a sane analysis I think, I hope. The game was SO frustrating, I kept thinking "OK, now we drive down the field for a TD and then repeat and repeat and put this out of reach.". Never happened obv.
Usually reliable people messed up.
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I also don't think we've seen the last of the foolishness this season from some other teams. There will be more upsets this season.. Happens every year. Someone like an Ohio State or Oklahoma or Alabama, or Clemson is going to slip up and lose to someone they never should either.
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Nashville,
Clanga absolutely pummeled LSU last time we went there, so if you're looking for upset alerts.....
Your talk about UGA gets to a more philosophical point I've wondered about Georgia for a while now. Fromm is good. There's maybe not really an alpha dog WR like an AJ Green, but there's guys who are good. Swift is a dangerous back, there's probably others. David Pollack said in his interview at LSU the other day that UGA is the last SEC team left in the SEC, and I've been thinking kind of the same thing. If you have UGA's talent and ability to do certain things that they can do, I'm not so sure why you wouldn't try to maximize your possessions and plays. That usually means going a little bit more pedal to the metal. Instead UGA kind of plays Tressel-ball and seems like they're trying to shorten the game up on opponents. The less your sample size, the greater the chance that an inferior team will pull something out. With a greater sample size, it becomes statistically harder for the "better" team to lose. i.e., if you're UGA, playing USCe, hypothetically you should want to run as many plays as possible, because the fewer plays there are, the greater the chance something wonky happens. And it probably did. I believe there is a time to be a RTDB team, but I think the Dawgs lean too heavily into that mindset sometimes.
LSU is a bit of an enigma on defense right now. They are the second best defense on a ypp basis in the SEC, behind Missouri. Second best in rushing ypc behind UGA, second best in comp% allowed behind Mizzou, and 5th best in passing ypa. But you're right that something is funky in the smell test. The advanced stats see it too, as neither SP+ nor FEI have too high an opinion of the Tiger defense. Somehow, despite all the ypp stats, they don't get off the field on 3rd down like they should. I believe they allow 47$ 3rd down conv, which is not good. I'm inclined to blame it on a subpar pass rush.
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I yell RTDB at the TV fairly often. We get 8 yards on first down, well, get the next one and get 4 more yards and repeat. I understand we can't run on every play, but I would until they stop us if it's a team like USCe or UK or UT. I might mix in some screens (which we seem to have forgotten exists) and short passes as Fromm is usually reliable.
But, RTDB. Use that 328 pound OL to wear down the other team and just run clock and gain yards. Run some toss sweeps, run off tackle, run traps, whatever, but RTDB.
I HATE being 2nd and 2 and end up punting. Hate it.
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I should remind myself of my own comments about how "we fans" tend to over react to a single game. When Wisconsin beat up Michigan, "we" figured Michigan was done, it was an ugly loss. They happen, Ohio State has had some lapses in recent years against inferior teams. Clemson pulled out a W against UNC while looking pretty bad.
It's "part of the game".
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Nashville,
Clanga absolutely pummeled LSU last time we went there, so if you're looking for upset alerts.....
Your talk about UGA gets to a more philosophical point I've wondered about Georgia for a while now. Fromm is good. There's maybe not really an alpha dog WR like an AJ Green, but there's guys who are good. Swift is a dangerous back, there's probably others. David Pollack said in his interview at LSU the other day that UGA is the last SEC team left in the SEC, and I've been thinking kind of the same thing. If you have UGA's talent and ability to do certain things that they can do, I'm not so sure why you wouldn't try to maximize your possessions and plays. That usually means going a little bit more pedal to the metal. Instead UGA kind of plays Tressel-ball and seems like they're trying to shorten the game up on opponents. The less your sample size, the greater the chance that an inferior team will pull something out. With a greater sample size, it becomes statistically harder for the "better" team to lose. i.e., if you're UGA, playing USCe, hypothetically you should want to run as many plays as possible, because the fewer plays there are, the greater the chance something wonky happens. And it probably did. I believe there is a time to be a RTDB team, but I think the Dawgs lean too heavily into that mindset sometimes.
LSU is a bit of an enigma on defense right now. They are the second best defense on a ypp basis in the SEC, behind Missouri. Second best in rushing ypc behind UGA, second best in comp% allowed behind Mizzou, and 5th best in passing ypa. But you're right that something is funky in the smell test. The advanced stats see it too, as neither SP+ nor FEI have too high an opinion of the Tiger defense. Somehow, despite all the ypp stats, they don't get off the field on 3rd down like they should. I believe they allow 47$ 3rd down conv, which is not good. I'm inclined to blame it on a subpar pass rush.
Georgia ran 95 plays against South Carolina. 51 of them were passes. The most Fromm has ever thrown in a game to my knowledge. It appears they were trying to go more pedal to the metal in the passing game to get more explosive plays. Lowest point total of the season....smh. The stat of the game was 4 turnovers and the pick 6. Otherwise Georgia wins that game comfortably.
63 vs. Vandy
65 vs. Murray State
66 vs. Arkansas State
59 vs. Notre Dame
65 vs. Tennessee
95 vs. South Carolina (5 of those was in overtime)
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LSU has looked impressive. At this point, I'd have them at #1. Bama would be a clear 2.
3 - Florida
4 - Auburn
5 - UGA
6 - Huh, A&M?
7. USCe
8. Mizzou
THen it gets pretty gnarly, but Tenn is showing some spunk.
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Georgia ran 95 plays against South Carolina. 51 of them were passes. The most Fromm has ever thrown in a game to my knowledge. It appears they were trying to go more pedal to the metal in the passing game to get more explosive plays. Lowest point total of the season....smh. The stat of the game was 4 turnovers and the pick 6. Otherwise Georgia wins that game comfortably.
63 vs. Vandy
65 vs. Murray State
66 vs. Arkansas State
59 vs. Notre Dame
65 vs. Tennessee
95 vs. South Carolina (5 of those was in overtime)
Yeah, sorry, what I mean is more along the lines of how UGA is designed. I'm not suggesting they can just magically go be something they're not at this point. More like I'm wondering why they haven't shifted their overall direction (before now) to be more geared for pouring it on.
I'm the last one to gripe about ball-control, suffocating defense teams. My team won a ton of games like that through the years. But there comes times when it hits a brick wall and it's good if teams are built to have that extra gear. I've seen two games recently between UGA and Bama that UGA should've won, but then they go conservative and try to run the clock out. Predictably, it doesn't work. It will work a lot. If you're gonna beat beasts like that, you're gonna have to throw punches until the whistle blows. Just like horror movies, they're never really dead.
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Somebody else can try this, I quit. These teams are all schizophrenic.
rtf4 was in NOLA this weekend, he was lucid until about 10 p.m. Saturday night and then I quit hearing from him. Could be days before he wakes up out of whatever ditch he passed out in.
Cincy, OAM, Badger, one of yall will have to do it.
I am losing some confidence in Alabama. More than any time in the last ten years, Saturday night looked suspiciously like this team could be Tua & The Other Guys. With Tua, it's still a great team. Without him, more mortal than I've seen in a while.
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Alabama has fallen prey to the Peyton Manning syndrome. You have an uber-talented QB and stray from the type of offense the rest of the team is built for, and it does come with some expense. Your defense is no longer lights out, because - among other reasons - it doesn't have to be.
The good news for Saban is that he can easily pull a 98 Vols and resort back to his style of team as soon as Tua leaves after this season, grind out 31 point blowouts instead of 55 point blowouts, and get back to that big bully, nasty Bama we've come to know.
As for LSU and this idea - I think they've had a black hole at QB and have just been waiting for one. Also, and more to-the-point, they have a next-level OC now, and he's running circles against college DCs.
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The scheme and the passing game coordinator are nice, but I think too much is getting made of that and not enough attention is paid to the kids running it. We're definitely not the only team to run a pro-style spread. Joe Brady learned much of what we're running from Moorhead. I'm not sure how the narrative became Brady was bringing the Saints' offense to LSU. I mean, yeah, he spent a year or two with the Saints, but let's be real, LSU is not running the Saints offense, other than borrowing a few formations I recognize and a couple plays here and there that aren't all that particular.
LSU looks good so far because Burrow is a really good QB and the WRs are catching everything, unlike last year. I'm not dogging the scheme at all, but if we try to run the same thing next year with Myles Brennan in the shotgun, the new narrative will be "SEC defenses have figured out LSU."
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after some discussions with the voodoo priestess this weekend...
1 - lsu
2 - bama with tua
3 - uf
4 - au
5 - uga
6 - bama without tua
7 - aTm
8 - usc
9 - ole miss
10 - mizz
11 - tenn
12 - msu
13 - uk
14 - vandy
15 - arky
lsu wins sec, osu, clem, and ou all go undefeated.
lsu beats clem, osu beats ou, lsu beats osu for title. burrow wins hiesman, goes #1.
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgiphygifs.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fmedia%2FleWR6wEhj4hfG%2Fgiphy.gif&hash=2dd563ff31e6f81894c3deb6a4e0cc4c)
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I see you feigning praise for your enemies. I'm on to you.
Shouldn't Tennessee get two spots for "with Maurer" and "without?" Before he left the game, they looked....dare I say it....competent?
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He's from Ocala, FL. Why is it that every good player on teams across the country are from FL?
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btw, Bama without Tua is still the 2nd-most talented roster in college football.
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I see you feigning praise for your enemies. I'm on to you.
Shouldn't Tennessee get two spots for "with Maurer" and "without?" Before he left the game, they looked....dare I say it....competent?
there's about 8 sec teams that should probably have a with...without ranking.
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Interesting that the top teams seem to have elite QBs. Or not.