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Topic: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida

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OrangeAfroMan

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SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« on: November 28, 2020, 03:19:31 PM »
I think the Tide could beat us without throwing a pass.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bamajoe

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2020, 04:39:56 PM »
Too early. Bama has two games to play before Florida.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2020, 01:45:40 PM »
Riiiiight.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

rolltidefan

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2020, 11:23:54 AM »
it's not that we're worried, it's that we want to savor them.

Cincydawg

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2020, 11:54:33 AM »
I figure Bama will be a 12 point fav over UF.

bamajoe

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2020, 12:18:20 PM »
I'm sorry but we owe LSU for last year's debacle and Ed Ogeron's trash talking after the game. A lot of us are not interested in focusing on Florida until we avenge last years freak loss to that baboon.

Cincydawg

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2020, 12:36:30 PM »
I predict Bama defeats LSU, by a large margin.  Duh.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2020, 01:30:57 PM »
Looking at all the micro-chip potato computer machines, all of them have Florida very low for getting in the playoff.  Behind Cinci and others and I understand why.  But I guess I disagree with it when you control your own destiny.


Mathematically, Florida is less likely to beat Bama than the few teams ranked behind us are to get whatever help they need to reach the playoff.  I get that.  BUT, I can't stay with the math when one (Florida) needs no help to get in and those others do.  To me, that matters.  It doesn't mathematically change the numbers, but isn't it always a plus to not have to rely on others to win games? 


Cincinnati needs 3.5 things to happen: 
1 - win out
2 - have Bama beat Florida
3 - have ND beat Clemson again
4 - it wouldn't hurt for A&M to lose or win lethargically (this is the 1/2 thing)
.
If those 3.5 things happen, Cincinnati is (probably) safely included in the playoff.  And even if these likelihoods add up to a higher % than Florida beating Alabama, it's still 3.5 things.  The longer your list, the more likely ONE of them isn't going to happen.  And only 1 of them is in Cinci's hands.  That's a big deal.

Florida has 1 step.  Beat Bama (part of winning out).  That 1 step, as unlikely as it may be, is just 1 step. 
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2020, 01:46:49 PM »
It's obviously a combination of number of chances and odds involved with each chance.


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2020, 09:31:34 PM »
Right.  

But I'd rather do one hard task than 4 smaller, easier ones.  There's less that can go wrong.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

rolltidefan

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2020, 04:38:36 PM »
Right. 

But I'd rather do one hard task than 4 smaller, easier ones.  There's less that can go wrong. 
i'd rather do 4 smaller ones.

having said that, you're right. cinci is only "doing" one of those 4, going undefeated. they have to rely on bama beating florida (probable), nd beating clemson again (maybe? i'll say 50/50) and probably need au to beat aTm (slight lean probably not).

all that considered, i'd rather be in uf position.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SECCG: Alabama vs Florida
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2020, 01:21:11 PM »
We're going to have to catch the Tide being lethargic or fat n happy or something.  That's our only chance.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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