Looking at all the micro-chip potato computer machines, all of them have Florida very low for getting in the playoff. Behind Cinci and others and I understand why. But I guess I disagree with it when you control your own destiny.
Mathematically, Florida is less likely to beat Bama than the few teams ranked behind us are to get whatever help they need to reach the playoff. I get that. BUT, I can't stay with the math when one (Florida) needs no help to get in and those others do. To me, that matters. It doesn't mathematically change the numbers, but isn't it always a plus to not have to rely on others to win games?
Cincinnati needs 3.5 things to happen:
1 - win out
2 - have Bama beat Florida
3 - have ND beat Clemson again
4 - it wouldn't hurt for A&M to lose or win lethargically (this is the 1/2 thing)
.
If those 3.5 things happen, Cincinnati is (probably) safely included in the playoff. And even if these likelihoods add up to a higher % than Florida beating Alabama, it's still 3.5 things. The longer your list, the more likely ONE of them isn't going to happen. And only 1 of them is in Cinci's hands. That's a big deal.
Florida has 1 step. Beat Bama (part of winning out). That 1 step, as unlikely as it may be, is just 1 step.
