Wish this game was at night when Kinnick is the most deadly.Yes, how did a game between the #3 and #4 teams in the polls end up on FOX at 3pm CDT instead of in Prime time?
Wish this game was at night when Kinnick is the most deadly.Hawks beat M/tOSU last time during daylight hours
Hawks beat M/tOSU last time during daylight hoursHmm...
Start time is 3:00 p.m. Central Time on Fox.I do not believe the bold part to be correct.
Iowa's defense has been masterful at take-aways. Leads the nation in turnover margin at +2.4. Penn State is 7th in the nation at turnover margin at +1.5.
Iowa's defense is 12th at YPG, and Penn State's defense is 34th at YPG.
Penn State is 2nd in scoring defense at 10.8, and Iowa is 3rd at 11.6.
Iowa is 34th in points per game at 33.2; Penn State is 63rd at 28.0 points per game, a surprising comparison statistic.
Iowa has a real good punt and kick returner, and top notch punting (44 yards per punt) whereas Penn State is (36 yard per punt) and field goal kicking (Iowa 88.89%) vs. (Penn State 71.43%).
According to Sagarin, Iowa is 10th in strength of schedule, and Penn State is 21st. And, I believe SOS is misleading because Sagarin seems to rank SOS as of the date the teams played rather than what it is today, so I am going to say Penn State's SOS is arguably somewhat stronger.
No predictions here, but homefield is a slight advantage for Iowa. But, as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!"
Penn State is 10-4 in games played in Iowa City, whereas Iowa is 8-7 in games played in Pennsylvania, so throw out homefield advantage; it is visitingfield advantage.
night games at Kinnick are where MNC hopes go to die. Penn State is catching a break that it's not a nighter.Kinnick is an evil place, it just gets more evil the later it gets!
Hmm...Vs tOSU it was a 3:30 Game
When Iowa shocked OSU 55-24 in 2017, yes that was a 2:30 start
When Iowa shocked Mich 14-13 in 2016, pretty sure that was a night game.
Kinnick is an evil place, it just gets more evil the later it gets!Kinda reminds you of home doesn't it?
Kinda reminds you of home doesn't it?White is the color of good. Black and gold? That's some combination from depths of hell.
I'm expecting a final score in this range...Ugh, the absolute worst game I've ever been to.
(https://i.imgur.com/M3g4ZHk.jpg)
Take the under.
This game seems like more of a must win for Penn State. Taking a loss at Kinnik would be bad considering their remaining schedule.
I think that's only because Iowa appears to be well ahead of future opponents in the West. Penn State is not, currently. If PSU wins, they could well need to sweep UM and OSU anyway.Lol Ok, that's fair. I guess in terms of winning the division, I guess this game is pretty meaningless because in the end you still need to beat the teams in your divisions to win the division.
I do not believe the bold part to be correct.You are right. I got my rankings from a teamrankings.com website. I re-checked today and they do have Penn State's punter at 48.5 yards per punt. Not sure how I messed that one up. Thanks for the correction!
Penn State is averaging 48.5 yards per punt.
This will be Sean Clifford's 3rd game against IowaClifford is making much better decisions this year, so far. His accuracy has also been better. I think Mike Yurcich has been very good for Clifford.
In 2019 he was 12/24, 117 yards, 1 TD passing. But he also ran it 16 times for 52 yards. PSU won 17-12
In 2020 Clifford split time with Levis
Clifford was 13/22, 174 yds, 2 TD, 2 int passing
Levis was 13/16, 106 yards, no TD, no int
Levis actually started the 2020 game for PSU, but got pulled for Clifford when Iowa raced to a 31-7 lead in the 3Q. Part of how Iowa built that lead was returning a Levis fumble for a TD. Clifford actually threw a couple TD passes to get PSU close, 31-21. But then Clifford ended up throwing 2 picks to end the game, including a pick six that made the final score 41-21.
Despite mixed results, I don't expect Clifford to make many mistakes against Iowa. He has seen the Iowa defense twice before. He will be coached to only take what Iowa's defense is giving him. With that said, I don't expect PSU to score many points either.
Ugh, the absolute worst game I've ever been to.Sitting in my college house, drinking for noon games, during an MSU bye week, on an absolutely dreary Saturday. That was one of my favorite college football memories
No 6-4 jokes yet? That was a noon/11 am kick.This is the only weird score in our memory. However, Iowa had another weird low scoring game in 1939, and won.
There is also a Michigan 5 Purdue? 0 game in the 90s. I don't remember a thing about it, other than hearing the score in my car.I was at it. It was absolutely miserable. Only game we ever left early for weather. It was like 45 and raining at kick, and plummeted down to like 30. The field was already flooded, it then froze. It was awful.
The next year was actually worse, Michigan lost 9-3 in West Lafayette.That sounds better.
The next year was actually worse, Michigan lost 9-3 in West Lafayette.IIRC Michigan had a chance to go up 10-0 right before half, bit for some reason Carr put in William Carr (obviously no relation) as a Fridge Perry style goal line back. He fumbled the ball, and Purdue outscored them 9-0 in the second half.
I think the winner of this game will come down to two factors.Can we try to get back on topic? This thread is about low scoring games from the 90s that neither of these teams were involved in.
1. The team able to win the turnover battle
2. The team able to convert short yardage situations
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Neither Penn State nor Iowa has a dominating offense.
Iowa's points per game is 33.2. Penn State's PPG is 28. However, Penn State has played a tougher schedule, IMO. If that wasn't enough, Iowa has scored 75 points off of turnovers. In addition, Penn State has scored quite a few points off of turnovers themselves.
Penn State has a "not top 5" 3rd down conversion rate of 38.5%. Iowa is even worse, with a 36.2% conversion rate.
Hopefully I'll have more offensive stuff to come later.
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If you dig deep into the defensive stats:
Points per game: PSU 10.8, Iowa 11.6. (In addition, 4PPG can be deducted from PSU due to garbage time scores against 3rd and 4th stringers, while no such adjustment can be made for Iowa)
However, I think Iowa has a significantly better rush defense.
Opponent Rushing yards per attempt: Iowa 2.7, PSU 3.4
PSU has faced (offensive rushing yards per attempt):
Auburn: #3
Wisconsin: #80
Indiana: #104
Ball State: #118
Villanova: N/A
Iowa has faced:
Iowa State: #9
Maryland: #46
Colorado State: #69
Kent State: #78
Indiana: #104
On the flip side, Penn State initially appears slightly better in pass defense.
Penn State is only allowing opponents 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Iowa is allowing 5.6. However, Penn State has given up nearly 250 passing yards in garbage time with their 3rd and fourth stringers. Iowa, on the other hand, has given up only 50 passing yards in garbage time. Adjusting for this means that Penn State's defense compares even more favorably to Iowa than it initially appears.
However, Penn State has faced (offensive passing yards per attempt):
Auburn: #91
Wisconsin: #100
Indiana: #109
Ball State: #116
Villanova: N/A
While Iowa has faced:
Iowa State: #34
Maryland: #48
Kent State: #93
Indiana: #109
Colorado State: #124
PSU's pass defense can only be fairly compared to Iowa when the strength of the opponent's passing games are accounted for. Once that is factored in, the teams become much, much closer.
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None of this factors in turnovers. Iowa is ranked #1 in the country in takeaways. However, that average is slightly skewed by the 642 turnovers they caused against Maryland. Still, given Iowa's history, you have to assume Iowa is likely to cause at least a turnover or two. Penn State, on the other hand, has the ability to keep up with Iowa, as they rank #11 in takeaways.
Overall, these appear to be two very good defenses on par with one another.
The next year was actually worse, Michigan lost 9-3 in West Lafayette.And how is this a bad thing,sheesh - you newbie
Counsel,sarcasm is not allowed on this BoardThat sounds like sarcasm to me.
One other streak worth mentioning is Iowa has not given up more than 24 points in 27 straight games, a streak that goes all the way back to 2018.Who first started throwing out this statistic about 24 points allowed? Where is this statistic recognized at as being meaningful? Why is 24-points such an important breaking point?
So I won't be shocked if Iowa gives up a lot first downs vs PSU, but I will be shocked if PSU gets over 24 points vs Iowa.
Who first started throwing out this statistic about 24 points allowed? Where is this statistic recognized at as being meaningful? Why is 24-points such an important breaking point?It may not be meaningful, but I believe knowing this streak exists helps make Iowa games more intersting. An Iowa fan just has to root for their team to get to 25 points, then they got the game won because Iowa never gives up more than 24 points. Also in blowout wins, you can root for the backups not to give up the late TD that would ruin the streak.
I am curious why the sports media started focusing on this heretofore unknown (to me) defensive statistic.
You can spend a lot of time when ranking defenses comparing yards given up in a game, but this is a category that Iowa never really dominates. But Iowa usually does rank among the top teams in points allowed per game and in turnovers. Iowa's whole style is to give up yards but not points. They will sit back and prevent the big play and wait for the other team to make a mistake. Other teams pick up a couple first downs, and then Boom!, they make some kind of mistake that kills the drive. Worst case they turn the ball over.this post has me leaning Iowa.
Iowa leads the country in interceptions since 2017. This is nothing new. Its a ball-hawking defense that swarms to the ball. Sometimes Iowa may miss a tackle, but there will be 5 other players swarming to the runner so the other team rarely breaks a long run. There are exceptions of course.
One other streak worth mentioning is Iowa has not given up more than 24 points in 27 straight games, a streak that goes all the way back to 2018.
So I won't be shocked if Iowa gives up a lot first downs vs PSU, but I will be shocked if PSU gets over 24 points vs Iowa.
so, Penn state's defense was better than Iowa's defense in 2004?No, Penn State's offense was awful. Iowa didn't have to score. My point is that the statistic of not allowing many points is meaningless.
https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/penn-state-iowa-will-be-b1gs-first-top-5-matchup-without-ohio-state-or-michigan-in-nearly-60-years/This is kind of a meaningless stat, as one of the broadcasts also mentioned that a top 5 match up between B1G schools had only happened like 5 times in the last 50 years. Two of them being PSU Iowa and MN WI.
According to ESPN’s Chris Fallica, this is the first time the Big Ten has had a top 5 game without Ohio State or Michigan included since 1962. Minnesota and Wisconsin played in that game, with the Badgers winning 14-9.
This is kind of a meaningless stat, as one of the broadcasts also mentioned that a top 5 match up between B1G schools had only happened like 5 times in the last 50 years. Two of them being PSU Iowa and MN WI.Well they must have been smoking the good stuff, because I just counted 9 top 5 matches between just OSU and MI in the last 50 years. Probably quite a few more involving other teams.
No, Penn State's offense was awful. Iowa didn't have to score. My point is that the statistic of not allowing many points is meaningless.Yes, I believe PSU was 2-6 in conference and 4-7 overall in 2004. So it does not guarantee any victories, But it does help show just how bad the PSU offense was in 2004. And knowing this stat does help explain why PSU was able to turn things around in 2005. Because the defense was already good in 2004.
https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/penn-state-iowa-will-be-b1gs-first-top-5-matchup-without-ohio-state-or-michigan-in-nearly-60-years/
According to ESPN’s Chris Fallica, this is the first time the Big Ten has had a top 5 game without Ohio State or Michigan included since 1962. Minnesota and Wisconsin played in that game, with the Badgers winning 14-9.
https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/penn-state-iowa-will-be-b1gs-first-top-5-matchup-without-ohio-state-or-michigan-in-nearly-60-years/Regular season?
According to ESPN’s Chris Fallica, this is the first time the Big Ten has had a top 5 game without Ohio State or Michigan included since 1962. Minnesota and Wisconsin played in that game, with the Badgers winning 14-9.
I have not been able to get a good feel for who is going to win this game. Early in the week, I was thinking PSU 20, Iowa 16. Yesterday I was thinking Iowa 20, PSU 6. Today I am thinkingThat score would not surprise me at all. I just hope the scores are reversed.
Iowa 16, PSU 13
I do not expect PSU to turn the ball over as much as Iowa's opponents usually do, but this approach will limit PSU's scoring chances. So the key question is can Iowa's offense score on PSU's defense without making any mistakes. That seems doubtful too. So that suggests this game could be won with as little as 16 points.
Well they must have been smoking the good stuff, because I just counted 9 top 5 matches between just OSU and MI in the last 50 years. Probably quite a few more involving other teams.I think you're misquoting your self.Their not saying just OSU/UM together they are saying top 5 Big Ten contest with out one or the other since 1962.This saturday being being the 2nd (according to ESPN)Where is that wrong?
Regular season?I think he meant Regular Season,not post but he certainly didn't state that.If that is accurate then you would be right.You get a Yuengling...perhaps
I think MSU-Iowa in the CCG was #4 vs. #5
I think you're misquoting your self.Their not saying just OSU/UM together they are saying top 5 Big Ten contest with out one or the other since 1962.This saturday being being the 2nd (according to ESPN)Where is that wrong?Nah, I realized I was wrong and so I posted a correction. :)
Hope this turns into a knock down drag out white knuckler 😜Most likely it will be. However, I could also see this getting ugly with a few turnovers or big plays.
Should be interesting to see Bobby Stoops' commentary on Fox Sport's version of College GameDay.The one good thing about the Urban stuff is hopefully they can slide him back into that chair. Stoops was a great coach, but he's awful on tv. Urban was surprisingly great.
| GAME OF THE WEEK |
| #4 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0, 5-0) |
| 4:00 - Iowa City, IA - FOX |
| It is oversimplifying things to say whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game. But it also seems true. Iowa has a great defense, but they've also but turning teams over like crazy (Kent State game aside). Penn State has only turned the ball over 3 times all season, and never more than once in a game. The Hawkeyes' defense is good enough to stop Penn State without turnovers. My concern is whether Iowa's offense is good enough to score on Penn State's defense if they spend all afternoon getting the ball on their own 35 following a Nittany Lion punt. Tyler Goodson shows flashes of how talented he is, but with one of the less effective passing games, he needs to be far more consistent. He's averaging 86 ypg, which is good for 7th in the conference, but on 4.3 ypc, the second worst ypc of any starting back, he needing a lot of carries to get it done. On the flip side, Penn State isn't running the ball all that well either, particularly Noah Cain, who is back from the injury that cost him the entire 2020 season, but has looked awful, averaging just 3.2 ypc. You want to beat Iowa through the air? Haha. Good luck with that one. After last week's disaster from Taulia Tagovailoa, I think Sean Clifford has strengthened his claim as the conference's best quarterback. He'll have to be if the Nittany Lion run game doesn't figure it out, something they didn't do in their first two Big Ten games, because Iowa has the conference's top pass efficiency defense. Yes, the 12 interceptions help, but they are also top 3 in opponent completion percentage and yards per attempt. Last week they faced Dontay Demus Jr., granted his night, and season, ended early due to injury. They shut down the Big Ten leader in receiving yards. This week they get Jahan Dotson, the conference's leader in receptions. I think this comes down to Penn State limiting turnovers, and assuming they can, can Iowa's offense do anything without the defense's help. I'd probably pick the home team either way in this one. Iowa takes a stranglehold on the Big Ten West. |
| IOWA 23, PENN STATE 18 |
The one good thing about the Urban stuff is hopefully they can slide him back into that chair. Stoops was a great coach, but he's awful on tv. Urban was surprisingly great.I agree Urban Meyer was a great analyst. He brought credibility to the broadcast. He was the best one on Fox Sports.
I agree Urban Meyer was a great analyst. He brought credibility to the broadcast. He was the best one on Fox Sports.He definitely could explain why coaches calling certain things and why they worked. He could avoid the basic stuff (they should have passed instead of ran) and he avoided the minutia (just sort of throwing out coverages or alignment without explaining it).
A thoughtful analysis.
GAME OF THE WEEK #4 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0, 5-0) 4:00 - Iowa City, IA - FOX It is oversimplifying things to say whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game. But it also seems true. Iowa has a great defense, but they've also but turning teams over like crazy (Kent State game aside). Penn State has only turned the ball over 3 times all season, and never more than once in a game. The Hawkeyes' defense is good enough to stop Penn State without turnovers. My concern is whether Iowa's offense is good enough to score on Penn State's defense if they spend all afternoon getting the ball on their own 35 following a Nittany Lion punt. Tyler Goodson shows flashes of how talented he is, but with one of the less effective passing games, he needs to be far more consistent. He's averaging 86 ypg, which is good for 7th in the conference, but on 4.3 ypc, the second worst ypc of any starting back, he needing a lot of carries to get it done. On the flip side, Penn State isn't running the ball all that well either, particularly Noah Cain, who is back from the injury that cost him the entire 2020 season, but has looked awful, averaging just 3.2 ypc. You want to beat Iowa through the air? Haha. Good luck with that one. After last week's disaster from Taulia Tagovailoa, I think Sean Clifford has strengthened his claim as the conference's best quarterback. He'll have to be if the Nittany Lion run game doesn't figure it out, something they didn't do in their first two Big Ten games, because Iowa has the conference's top pass efficiency defense. Yes, the 12 interceptions help, but they are also top 3 in opponent completion percentage and yards per attempt. Last week they faced Dontay Demus Jr., granted his night, and season, ended early due to injury. They shut down the Big Ten leader in receiving yards. This week they get Jahan Dotson, the conference's leader in receptions. I think this comes down to Penn State limiting turnovers, and assuming they can, can Iowa's offense do anything without the defense's help. I'd probably pick the home team either way in this one. Iowa takes a stranglehold on the Big Ten West. IOWA 23, PENN STATE 18
. I suppose all this means Iowa 23 Penn State 20.I have to give this poster an A+
. I suppose all this means Iowa 23 Penn State 20.You get a Yuengling,Of course Clifford would take it back had he played all game
You get a Yuengling,Of course Clifford would take it back had he played all gameI had to look Yuengling up. I think you will have to ship one. I am settling for an economy model tonight. I think in beer lingo that means popularly priced.
Penn State wins on the neutral field, even with losing their quarterback for over half the game. But injuries and home field advantage is a real thingIowa got off to a horrible start. The defense seemed completely surprised and taken by the tempo game Penn State played in the 1st half. Iowa has played these offenses before, but obviously the coaching staff did not expect it from Penn State. As a result Penn State jumped ahead.
I'm not sold on PSU yet, Iowa is looking strong, at home, to me, low scoring, something like 24-17 I'd guess.Close.
Iowa wins.