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Topic: #4 Penn State (2-1, 5-1) at #3 Iowa (3-0, 6-0) Post-Game
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #56 on:** October 06, 2021, 02:46:27 PM »

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 06, 2021, 02:41:21 PM

Counsel,sarcasm is not allowed on this Board

That sounds like sarcasm to me.

Iowa will score between 0 and 28 points, and Penn State the same.

BuckeyeAvenger · « **Reply #57 on:** October 06, 2021, 04:27:31 PM »

Two impressively tough defensive teams, with a lot at stake, in terms of national rankings and conference momentum. I give the edge to Penn State, as the team with the more functional offense (and they have recruited better over time - see blue-chip ratio). I think this will be a very low scoring affair, and Iowa being at home, is a definite edge for the Hawkeyes. The game of the week.

LittlePig · « **Reply #58 on:** October 06, 2021, 05:51:24 PM »

You can spend a lot of time when ranking defenses comparing yards given up in a game, but this is a category that Iowa never really dominates. But Iowa usually does rank among the top teams in points allowed per game and in turnovers. Iowa's whole style is to give up yards but not points. They will sit back and prevent the big play and wait for the other team to make a mistake. Other teams pick up a couple first downs, and then Boom!, they make some kind of mistake that kills the drive. Worst case they turn the ball over.

Iowa leads the country in interceptions since 2017. This is nothing new. Its a ball-hawking defense that swarms to the ball. Sometimes Iowa may miss a tackle, but there will be 5 other players swarming to the runner so the other team rarely breaks a long run. There are exceptions of course.

One other streak worth mentioning is Iowa has not given up more than 24 points in 27 straight games, a streak that goes all the way back to 2018.

So I won't be shocked if Iowa gives up a lot first downs vs PSU, but I will be shocked if PSU gets over 24 points vs Iowa.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #59 on:** October 06, 2021, 07:28:11 PM »

Quote from: LittlePig on October 06, 2021, 05:51:24 PM

One other streak worth mentioning is Iowa has not given up more than 24 points in 27 straight games, a streak that goes all the way back to 2018.

So I won't be shocked if Iowa gives up a lot first downs vs PSU, but I will be shocked if PSU gets over 24 points vs Iowa.

Who first started throwing out this statistic about 24 points allowed? Where is this statistic recognized at as being meaningful? Why is 24-points such an important breaking point?
I am curious why the sports media started focusing on this heretofore unknown (to me) defensive statistic.

LittlePig · « **Reply #60 on:** October 06, 2021, 11:21:32 PM »

Quote from: Hawkinole on October 06, 2021, 07:28:11 PM

Who first started throwing out this statistic about 24 points allowed? Where is this statistic recognized at as being meaningful? Why is 24-points such an important breaking point?
I am curious why the sports media started focusing on this heretofore unknown (to me) defensive statistic.

It may not be meaningful, but I believe knowing this streak exists helps make Iowa games more intersting. An Iowa fan just has to root for their team to get to 25 points, then they got the game won because Iowa never gives up more than 24 points. Also in blowout wins, you can root for the backups not to give up the late TD that would ruin the streak.

But in the end I agree its not very meaningful. Its no guarantee Iowa will win. Iowa has lost 5 times during the streak, and ironically the game before the streak started, Iowa actually won, beating Neb 31-28. And in the end, the streak may just be a sign that not only does iowa have a good defense, but also that Iowa's offense is not very high scoring.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #61 on:** October 07, 2021, 12:52:09 AM »

I had never heard of the statistic until one of the broadcasters brought it up in game 1 or 2 this season, and then every week it is one of the preparation requirements for the next broadcast team that does the Iowa game. I do think in general if Iowa gets to 24 on offense it has a good chance of winning. It seems like a low bar for an offense.
Believing it might be interesting to check the average scoring offense for FBS football I found this website:

Offense - Points Per Game 2021 FBS College Football | WarrenNolan.com

On average in 2021 FBS teams scored 29.4 ppg. Iowa has held teams below the 2021 average ppg for 27-straight games by an average 5.4 points; it's good, but I am not sure that's the big deal it's made out to be. I'd like to see when the last time another team had a streak this long; or are there others now who share this streak?
After reading the above linked chart, now I want to know, "What's going on with Pittsburgh scoring 52.4 ppg? Pitt is 55th @ scoring defense giving up 22.6 ppg. Now that I look at Pitt's schedule, it's not that they played nobody, because they have played 5-games but they played nobodies 3 times out of 5.
The stats used in my opening post were off. I am guessing the website I used had not completely updated stats from Week 4 to Week 5. Week 5 defensive stats show Iowa scoring defense 2nd @ 11.6 ppg and Penn State 3rd @ 12.4 ppg in scoring defense, both massively outranked by #1 Georgia @ 4.6 ppg NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com Both Iowa and PSU have great defenses. Iowa's defense gets a few more turnovers. It will be a competitive game unless somebody develops momentum and blacktops the other.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #62 on:** October 07, 2021, 08:07:05 AM »

Quote from: LittlePig on October 06, 2021, 05:51:24 PM

You can spend a lot of time when ranking defenses comparing yards given up in a game, but this is a category that Iowa never really dominates. But Iowa usually does rank among the top teams in points allowed per game and in turnovers. Iowa's whole style is to give up yards but not points. They will sit back and prevent the big play and wait for the other team to make a mistake. Other teams pick up a couple first downs, and then Boom!, they make some kind of mistake that kills the drive. Worst case they turn the ball over.

Iowa leads the country in interceptions since 2017. This is nothing new. Its a ball-hawking defense that swarms to the ball. Sometimes Iowa may miss a tackle, but there will be 5 other players swarming to the runner so the other team rarely breaks a long run. There are exceptions of course.

One other streak worth mentioning is Iowa has not given up more than 24 points in 27 straight games, a streak that goes all the way back to 2018.

So I won't be shocked if Iowa gives up a lot first downs vs PSU, but I will be shocked if PSU gets over 24 points vs Iowa.

this post has me leaning Iowa.

I'll say....

Iowa - 24
Penn State - 20

Cincydawg · « **Reply #63 on:** October 07, 2021, 08:12:34 AM »

I think the 24 points stat is relevant, as in none of expect PSU to hang 31 on them. As for how many other teams have similar records, I don't know, but 5 points under the average is good and having 24 as a max is very good.

Temp430 · « **Reply #64 on:** October 07, 2021, 08:36:31 AM »

My memory is vague but it seems several of Iowa's opponents this year have self destructed. I don't think Penn State will do that.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #65 on:** October 07, 2021, 08:39:46 AM »

Iowa State had 4 TOs to none, certainly an important stat. They also had a lot more yards and first downs. But as noted above, that has been the Iowa key to winning of late, bend without breaking and let the other team make a mistake.

Iowa vs. Iowa State - Team Statistics - September 11, 2021 - ESPN

MrNubbz · « **Reply #66 on:** October 07, 2021, 08:41:55 AM »

I agree with you two,but factoring HFA and Revenge I'm a slight lean toward Ia.Pulling for the Ninnies though

Geolion91 · « **Reply #67 on:** October 07, 2021, 08:54:26 AM »

To put it in perspective, Penn State did not allow ANYONE to score more than 21 points during the entire 2004 season.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/penn-state/2004-schedule.html

MrNubbz · « **Reply #68 on:** October 07, 2021, 08:57:28 AM »

How does 17 yrs ago put this week's game into perspective,keep digging Geo

FearlessF · « **Reply #69 on:** October 07, 2021, 09:22:31 AM »

so, Penn state's defense was better than Iowa's defense in 2004?

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Topic: #4 Penn State (2-1, 5-1) at #3 Iowa (3-0, 6-0) Post-Game

Cincydawg

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

BuckeyeAvenger

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

LittlePig

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

Hawkinole

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

LittlePig

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

Hawkinole

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

Mdot21

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

Cincydawg

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

Temp430

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

Cincydawg

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

MrNubbz

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

Geolion91

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

MrNubbz

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week

FearlessF

Re: #4 Penn State (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa (2-0, 5-0) Game Week