I'm seeing Baylor favored by 2.5 today with a very low (68%) confidence. That's pretty well in keeping with how I feel as well. I may actually favor Baylor by a bit more, but with very low confidence all the way around.
Baylor is going to do what they do. They want to run out of a wide zone package where OL goes one direction and just tries to widen out the line. The RB then just tries to find his favorite gap and head up field. If it's working, then all sorts of stuff like delays and cutbacks are on the table to burn an over aggressive defense. If it isn't working, there's really no Plan B. The QB isn't terrible, but the passing game just isn't going to drive the defense off the ball.
Moreover, Baylor plays defense with their offense. They want the game clock to run so their defense doesn't have to post stop after stop. They have two LB in Jalen Pitre and Terrell Bernard that force the action. If there's a play being made, those guys are creating it. If I'm Texas, I'd almost assign a spy to one or the other every play just to pick him off and play 10 on 10.
In order to win this game, Texas has to have improved during the bye week. The OL has to get on the same page and a second reliable receiver has to emerge. Texas has too many deadly weapons on the field. Baylor certainly can't keep them all corralled, but they're useless if Casey Thompson can't get the ball out of his hand!
The defense just has to get the first guy to arrest the ball carrier. They're not busting in bad positions. There's always someone in position to make the play. The first guy is just whiffing too many times. The play degenerates into multiple 1 on 1 missed tackles rather than detaining the ball carrier and gang tackling.
Please, someone rush the passer. Every play can't be blitzing!
