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Topic: Longhorn Football
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MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #1008 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:16:40 PM »

The committee has been known to jump things around in the 11th hour. Oregon above Texas could just be a reflection of something they don't think needs fixing if Oregon loses again to Washington. If Oregon wins, it's still possible the committee will see the situation didn't work itself out and do some more evaluation between the two.

Or they may feel like Oregon is genuinely better. Who knows. The committee's thoughts and ways are not our own.

MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #1009 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:21:17 PM »

Before I forget, I spotted some more familiar names in the UT/Tech game.

Tech had a defensive player with the surname Baskerville. I'd feel sure he's got to be related to LSU's Micah Baskerville of a couple seasons ago. That's not a very common name. I also saw Texas had a player (RB maybe?) named Blue who they said was from Houston. LSU had a running back named Alfred Blue from Houston about ten years ago, and I'd guess they are related. There was also a player named McCray, but I don't remember which team he was on. Also about ten years ago LSU had Danny McCray, and since then I've seen a couple of other McCray's show up on other SEC teams who I found out were related. Wouldn't surprise me if this one were too.

There was also a 4th player name I recognized, but I can't remember it anymore. I couldn't tell you why, but it's interesting to me when families produce multiple big time athletes, and even more so when they don't all go to the same school.

utee94 · « **Reply #1010 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:22:11 PM »

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 27, 2023, 01:16:40 PM

The committee has been known to jump things around in the 11th hour. Oregon above Texas could just be a reflection of something they don't think needs fixing if Oregon loses again to Washington. If Oregon wins, it's still possible the committee will see the situation didn't work itself out and do some more evaluation between the two.

Or they may feel like Oregon is genuinely better. Who knows. The committee's thoughts and ways are not our own.

Pretty sure this is the answer. Which means they're disregarding resume' and SOS, in favor of the "eye test" which leans heavily on MOV.

Considering MOV without adjusting for SOS is for simpletons-- and that's precisely what the committee is.

utee94 · « **Reply #1011 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:25:32 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on November 27, 2023, 01:22:11 PM

Considering MOV without adjusting for SOS is for simpletons-- and that's precisely what the committee is.

And of course I'll completely change my stance on the committee if they slide Texas up over Oregon this week, in advance of the CCGs.

But I don't expect that to happen, I feel like the die is cast here.

MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #1012 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:34:27 PM »

Washington could always beat Oregon again and make their job a lot clearer.

I would like to have seen more out of the Husky defense lately. Looks to me like Oregon is better on that side of the ball since they last met.

Let's just all pull together and root for a Husky win. A second loss for Oregon would be good for Texas, and U-Dubb giving Nix hell all day would be good for Jayden Daniels

utee94 · « **Reply #1013 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:41:32 PM »

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 27, 2023, 01:34:27 PM

Washington could always beat Oregon again and make their job a lot clearer.

I would like to have seen more out of the Husky defense lately. Looks to me like Oregon is better on that side of the ball since they last met.

Let's just all pull together and root for a Husky win. A second loss for Oregon would be good for Texas, and U-Dubb giving Nix hell all day would be good for Jayden Daniels

Heh, well for your sake, I'm good with that.

From the Texas perspective, as long as the committee chooses to keep Oregon over Texas, then it doesn't matter who wins the PAC championship. An undefeated Washington PAC champ is in over Texas. And if the committee holds to form, a 12-1 Oregon is in over Texas, too.

Really UT's only hope, is for a Michigan or FSU loss. One seems to be at least slightly more likely than the other.

Mr Tulip · « **Reply #1014 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:49:25 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on November 27, 2023, 12:51:36 PM

FTR, I've never liked the "their QB got hurt so they shouldn't be in the CFP" argument. I know that the Committee thinks that way, but I think it's wrong. I know that it stems from the mission to "pick the best team," but I still think it's wrong-headed.

In any case, they often don't pick the "best team" because they overly value the "zero losses" factor. And they value that zero even if it was helped by obvious officiating malpractice.

"Best resume"--which I value--is subjective too, but less so than "best team."

It's a bit merciless, but the committee wants the best semi-final games it can manage. To that end, if you've had a great season, but lost a very necessary player that makes your team win, then the committee states very plainly that they'll take that into consideration. They won't deliberately put a fatally weakened team in the playoffs - no matter how good of a season they've had.

Obviously, that fatal flaw has to be borne out. Right now, FSU will either win against Louisville or they won't. If they win, they'll be ACC champs and undefeated. Hard to argue "fatal flaw" if they're still winning. If they lose, then they're neither undefeated nor champs, so the committee will demote them.
The committee is looking for any good reason to demote a team right now. They have too many contenders, and time's running out.

MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #1015 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:53:27 PM »

I think there's a very low probability the committee keeps Oregon over Texas if Oregon picks up a second L and Texas remains a 1-loss team.

In the sense that perhaps Texas would get in over 1-loss Washington, maybe it doesn't matter who wins the PAC CG. Which I could actually see

I think mainly Texas needs FSU to lose. Michigan, UGA, the PAC 12 champion (loser is probably out), and then it's going to be Texas no matter what.

The biggest wrench in the works there is if Bama beats UGA. The committee will go through all kinds of mental contortions to figure out how to put both Bama and UGA in.

Guess we'll see.

Mr Tulip · « **Reply #1016 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:56:39 PM »

Quote from: Gigem on November 27, 2023, 12:59:32 PM

I find that these "what-if" scenarios rarely play out. Very good chance FSU will lose to 10-2 L'Ville.

Very good chance UGa beats BAma. 2 loss Bama is out.

Very good chance UDub beats Oregon.

I didn't realize that oSu and Texas hadn't played. I wouldn't count them out. Mike Gundy, for all his flaws, is a helluva coach about 1/2 the time. Earlier this season I wrote them off, now they're playing for the CCG.

Very fortuitous that UT scheduled Bama, that win is huge in their resume.

My final 4 pick is as follows:
-UT and Mich
-UW and UGa

FSU loses. I think that's the most likely scenario. I still see UGa winning it all, and I very much look to see how UT matches up wiht Michigan. Will Harbaugh be back for the playoff? I can't remember how many games he's out. Not sure if it makes a difference.

Texas matches up very well with the "run to set up the pass" teams. Our interior DL doesn't usually require help to blow up the A gaps and redirect the RB to the edges. Since the DEs are collapsing the pocket anyway, they're usually there to contain the run until the LBs get there.
Texas is vulnerable to the "quick pass" type teams. OU drove the ball using speed slants. UH spammed crossing routes at the end. For the majority of these contests, Texas was relying on depth chart secondary players. However, this vulnerability is why Texas fans get so steamed about the non-holding calls. The pass rush is powerful, and limits the damage crossing routes can do.

I want to see the Texas DL try on Michigan's OL.

utee94 · « **Reply #1017 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:59:29 PM »

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 27, 2023, 01:53:27 PM

I think there's a very low probability the committee keeps Oregon over Texas if Oregon picks up a second L and Texas remains a 1-loss team.

In the sense that perhaps Texas would get in over 1-loss Washington, maybe it doesn't matter who wins the PAC CG. Which I could actually see

I think mainly Texas needs FSU to lose. Michigan, UGA, the PAC 12 champion (loser is probably out), and then it's going to be Texas no matter what.

The biggest wrench in the works there is if Bama beats UGA. The committee will go through all kinds of mental contortions to figure out how to put both Bama and UGA in.

Guess we'll see.

Oh there's zero chance the committee keeps Oregon over Texas if the Ducks lose. But that will mean that Washington is undefeated and will be in over 1-loss Texas, regardless. Under the current rankings from the selection committee, the PAC is basically already locked in, which effectively locks Texas out, from that spot.

Assuming Texas wins which is hardly a foregone conclusion, and assuming the committee keeps Oregon over Texas this week, then a very simple way to look at it is this:

PAC champ is in no matter what.
SEC champ is in no matter what.
Michigan is in with a win
FSU is in with a win

So the only way Texas gets in, is with either a Michigan or FSU loss.

Of course, there's also the possibility you raise, that an Alabama win will make the committee want to put both Alabama and Georgia in. That gets really messy of course, since Texas would have beaten the team that beat Georgia. Guess we'll find out in a week.

MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #1018 on:** November 27, 2023, 01:59:45 PM »

I sort of want Texas to make the playoffs just so I can see what the defense looks like when the line isn't being suplexed on half the plays.

utee94 · « **Reply #1019 on:** November 27, 2023, 02:04:14 PM »

Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 27, 2023, 01:59:45 PM

I sort of want Texas to make the playoffs just so I can see what the defense looks like when the line isn't being suplexed on half the plays.

Quote from: Mr Tulip on November 27, 2023, 01:56:39 PM

I want to see the Texas DL try on Michigan's OL.

Amen to both of these. As long as we don't somehow get B12 refs, I think we'd be in good shape. This is about the filthiest interior DL I've ever seen in college football.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #1020 on:** November 27, 2023, 02:09:39 PM »

WHAT IF ALABAMA BEATS GEORGIA

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1021 on:** November 27, 2023, 02:21:34 PM »

Last I saw, Oregon is favored over UDubb.

UGA is a 5 point favorite, which is not much different than a toss up.

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Topic: Longhorn Football

MikeDeTiger

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MikeDeTiger

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utee94

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utee94

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MikeDeTiger

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Mr Tulip

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MikeDeTiger

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utee94

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