The SEC Forum at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I wonder how much a team can really push TOs versus random events.  I.e., a team could have a lot early and then not many late in a season and regress to the mean, although having a lot early doesn't mean you're likely to have fewer later.

Most TOs I see are a result of a bad read by the QB which happens mostly randomly or a tip or someone bobbles the ball or a WR slips, all of which are nearly random.  Fumbles seem the same, mostly, to me, a tackler has his helmet at just the right place or often a runner tries to gain another yard and loses security.  I don't think a defense can live off TOs, they are too random.

Not much else to say about this one anymore. 

Wrong!  You have failed to take into account the interloping know-it-all

I didn't get a chance to throw this out there because I didn't stumble across it until Friday afternoon, but it might be worth discussing.  I was listening to a podcast featuring a guy I'm not too familiar with, but man did his analyses nail it in games all over the country.  I don't know where he was getting his info from, but he included analysis that I lack data sources for, in the RRS' case, that being QB-vs.-coverage analysis.  Which is something I am inclined to lean on a fair bit, but without sources it's impossible for me to conjure on my own.  I think it's true that most QBs have coverages they excel against and a coverage or coverages which they struggle with.  If that premise doesn't float your boat, neither will the rest of this, but I think there's good support for the idea. 

My thinking up until that point was basically this:  Texas has a better resume, and although many numbers slightly favored OU, Texas' stats came against far better competition, and I figured that negated any advantage on paper for the Sooners.  I thought OU's defense was mucho improved and that UT might not be able to blister them the way they did last year or have done to other teams at times this season, and I thought the Longhorn defense would be able to stop mostly anyone enough to let the offense outmatch it, because I've liked what I've seen from that defense.   I thought Texas would likely grind out an uglier win, but by the end, a comfortable one.

So then I found out from this fella a few things I didn't know.  According to him, Texas was dead last in allowing explosive plays on passing downs (12 passes of 30+ yards on passing downs coming in).  He didn't clarify what "dead last" meant....in the conference?  The power 5?  The nation?  Still unclear on that part.  In any case, that's not anything I had noticed or that jumped out at me.  He noted Gabriel had heavy success against quarters and cover 1, which are what UT mostly plays.  On the other side, he said Ewers had been terrible against cover 1, cover 2, and cover 3, but very good against quarters, but that OU plays cover 1,2,3 61% of the time.  Now, with UT's wide receivers you'd think they'd welcome man coverage, but you do have to be a very accurate quarterback against man, and if Ewers hadn't been, A) I was missing it, B) that's useful info.

Assuming those stats were correct, that made me start to think OU might play this a lot closer than I thought.  Granted, just like the podcast dude, I never changed my pick to OU.  Only started thinking this would be a closer fight than I expected.  (I mean....I mostly always expect the RRS to be a fight and we shouldn't be surprised when it is, but you know what I mean.....rivalry craziness aside, just looking at brute facts of the teams and their seasons will frequently make you reasonably favor one team or the other, and I got less comfortable favoring Texas after hearing this.)  

So is that what played out?  Well.....I'd need utee94 to tell me, since he was evidently there.  Thing is, I can't see coverage down the field on TV.  All I could tell was Ewers definitely struggled, particularly in the first half.  And Gabriel was cold as ice, seeming not to be fazed by whatever he was seeing in the secondary.  And that was the main difference in the game.  

The other thing that surprised me was I thought Texas' D-line would close down OU's rush attack more than they did.  And really, it was just QB rushing that got them.  Outside of that, OU's rush numbers weren't impressive.  OU's O-line simply did better against Texas' front than I saw coming.  

How much of that repeats in a rematch?  I don't know.  Like I say, I couldn't even see the field enough to know if the QB trends continued or not.  What I do know is A) Texas only lost by 4 points, it's not a stretch to say just improve a few things and they win a rematch, B) both Longhorn lines need to win more consistently if that is to happen, and C) my opinion of Texas doesn't really change.  I think they're still one of the top 4-5 teams in the country, if not top 2, or 1st on a good day.  Mainly my opinion of OU went up.  They seem to be a better team than I gave them credit for.  

At any rate, I told a very frustrated Mrs. DeLonghorn that imo while this sucked, it probably doesn't matter in the overall scheme of things, because if both teams take care of business they should meet again in the Big 12 CG, with the winner advancing to the playoffs.  Because I think there's no way in hell a one-loss, conference champion Texas is left out of the playoffs.  

Losing starting center was pretty obviously a problem.  He was a 3 year starter and he calls all of the protections for the offensive line.  We're substantially worse without him.

Edit: Early rumors right now is that he's gone for the season.  That would be a tremendous blow to our o-line's capability.

So then I found out from this fella a few things I didn't know.  According to him, Texas was dead last in allowing explosive plays on passing downs (12 passes of 30+ yards on passing downs coming in).  He didn't clarify what "dead last" meant....in the conference?  The power 5?  The nation?  Still unclear on that part.  In any case, that's not anything I had noticed or that jumped out at me.  He noted Gabriel had heavy success against quarters and cover 1, which are what UT mostly plays.  On the other side, he said Ewers had been terrible against cover 1, cover 2, and cover 3, but very good against quarters, but that OU plays cover 1,2,3 61% of the time.  Now, with UT's wide receivers you'd think they'd welcome man coverage, but you do have to be a very accurate quarterback against man, and if Ewers hadn't been, A) I was missing it, B) that's useful info.

I was looking at Texas secondary to be our best chance for success but the OL would have to keep Gabriel upright long enough to exploit it.  I was surprised our OL did as well as they did (I expected them to get eaten alive).  I was also surprised Gabriel ran as much as he did. 

On defense, Venables makes it very difficult for QB's to read coverage and Ewers struggled to identify coverage, pressure, etc in the first half but had it figured out in the second half and had that unreal 19 straight completions.  Surprising to me, OU blitzed less than usual.  Still they got pressure on 40% of Ewer's dropbacks and the 5 sacks were impressive.
In a very weird coincidence, OU's last drill in every Wednesday practice is for the offense to try to go 75 yards in 1:15.

Just spitballing from memory and some quick reference numbers from ESPN, three things I'd want to see Texas clean up in order to beat the Sooners are 1) limit the sacks, 2) don't lose the TO battle, 3) do better at closing down rush lanes for Gabriel. 

Can they do those things?  My guess is we'll find out in the CG.  Looked like two of the best teams in the country to me.  If they stay focused and find a way to win the inevitable letdown game--wherever it may occur--I'm not sure who left on their schedules can beat them. 

If this OU team makes the playoffs, right now I think they're better prepared to match up with the other big boys than some of the OU participants of the recent past. 

Lots of good heavyweight fights left to see, probably a UT/OU rematch, OSU/Mich, probably Bama/UGA, heck....Louisville might even be enough to give FSU a fight in the ACC CG.  And maybe the best part, the PAC is about to start cannibalizing itself, methinks, in what should be a series of entertaining games.  

I mean, that's a long list of things Texas "needs" to do in order to beat OU.  But Texas was ahead with a minute to go.  In reality, all Texas needed to do to win on Saturday, was probably turnover the ball one fewer times.

If Texas cleaned up ALL the things you're talking about, then you're looking at a 2-3 score Texas victory.  Which of course I'm all for.

Not a long list, only three things, but I should clarify I meant any one of those things probably would've got them the win last Saturday, though I see I didn't word that well.  If I picked just one, first on my list would be closing down Gabriel's rush lanes.  Ordinarily I'd go with winning the TO battle first, but imo that somehow hurt UT less than Gabriel escaping the pocket for nice gains.  That seemed to be a huge part of OU's success, and without it their offense couldn't have stayed on the field so much.  

I'm also a bit more confident at the moment in Texas stopping Gabriel from running than winning the TOs, so that skews my focus.