Not much else to say about this one anymore.
Wrong! You have failed to take into account the interloping know-it-all
I didn't get a chance to throw this out there because I didn't stumble across it until Friday afternoon, but it might be worth discussing. I was listening to a podcast featuring a guy I'm not too familiar with, but man did his analyses nail it in games all over the country. I don't know where he was getting his info from, but he included analysis that I lack data sources for, in the RRS' case, that being QB-vs.-coverage analysis. Which is something I am inclined to lean on a fair bit, but without sources it's impossible for me to conjure on my own. I think it's true that most QBs have coverages they excel against and a coverage or coverages which they struggle with. If that premise doesn't float your boat, neither will the rest of this, but I think there's good support for the idea.
My thinking up until that point was basically this: Texas has a better resume, and although many numbers slightly favored OU, Texas' stats came against far better competition, and I figured that negated any advantage on paper for the Sooners. I thought OU's defense was mucho improved and that UT might not be able to blister them the way they did last year or have done to other teams at times this season, and I thought the Longhorn defense would be able to stop mostly anyone enough to let the offense outmatch it, because I've liked what I've seen from that defense. I thought Texas would likely grind out an uglier win, but by the end, a comfortable one.
So then I found out from this fella a few things I didn't know. According to him, Texas was dead last in allowing explosive plays on passing downs (12 passes of 30+ yards on passing downs coming in). He didn't clarify what "dead last" meant....in the conference? The power 5? The nation? Still unclear on that part. In any case, that's not anything I had noticed or that jumped out at me. He noted Gabriel had heavy success against quarters and cover 1, which are what UT mostly plays. On the other side, he said Ewers had been terrible against cover 1, cover 2, and cover 3, but very good against quarters, but that OU plays cover 1,2,3 61% of the time. Now, with UT's wide receivers you'd think they'd welcome man coverage, but you do have to be a very accurate quarterback against man, and if Ewers hadn't been, A) I was missing it, B) that's useful info.
Assuming those stats were correct, that made me start to think OU might play this a lot closer than I thought. Granted, just like the podcast dude, I never changed my pick to OU. Only started thinking this would be a closer fight than I expected. (I mean....I mostly always expect the RRS to be a fight and we shouldn't be surprised when it is, but you know what I mean.....rivalry craziness aside, just looking at brute facts of the teams and their seasons will frequently make you reasonably favor one team or the other, and I got less comfortable favoring Texas after hearing this.)
So is that what played out? Well.....I'd need utee94 to tell me, since he was evidently there. Thing is, I can't see coverage down the field on TV. All I could tell was Ewers definitely struggled, particularly in the first half. And Gabriel was cold as ice, seeming not to be fazed by whatever he was seeing in the secondary. And that was the main difference in the game.
The other thing that surprised me was I thought Texas' D-line would close down OU's rush attack more than they did. And really, it was just QB rushing that got them. Outside of that, OU's rush numbers weren't impressive. OU's O-line simply did better against Texas' front than I saw coming.
How much of that repeats in a rematch? I don't know. Like I say, I couldn't even see the field enough to know if the QB trends continued or not. What I do know is A) Texas only lost by 4 points, it's not a stretch to say just improve a few things and they win a rematch, B) both Longhorn lines need to win more consistently if that is to happen, and C) my opinion of Texas doesn't really change. I think they're still one of the top 4-5 teams in the country, if not top 2, or 1st on a good day. Mainly my opinion of OU went up. They seem to be a better team than I gave them credit for.
At any rate, I told a very frustrated Mrs. DeLonghorn that imo while this sucked, it probably doesn't matter in the overall scheme of things, because if both teams take care of business they should meet again in the Big 12 CG, with the winner advancing to the playoffs. Because I think there's no way in hell a one-loss, conference champion Texas is left out of the playoffs.