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Topic: Conference Strength Rankings?

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CWSooner

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Conference Strength Rankings?
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:48:58 PM »
This is from an OU-homer board, so take it with however large a grain of salt you feel appropriate.

Granted, step one is beating a tough Baylor team on Saturday, but as to the Utah versus Big XII Champ debate, here is how the Sagarin system (considered by most to be the best of the ranking algorithms) sees things:

Conference Strength (simple mean):
1. SEC - 80.1
2. Big XII - 79.9 (Naturally, how many of the talking heads have opined that the Big XII should be in the conversation for strongest conference? Yeah, zero, of course.)
3. Big Ten - 78.0
4. PAC 12 - 76.5
5. ACC - 72.7

Overall Rating:
OU - 93.9 (6th)
Utah - 90.9 (9th)
Baylor - 88.1 (15th)

Record versus Top 25:
OU - 4-1
Baylor - 4-1
Utah - 1-1

Record versus Top 50:
OU - 6-1
Baylor - 6-1
Utah - 3-1

Overall Schedule Strength:
OU - #22 (74.9 avg opp)
Baylor - #42 (72.8 avg opp)
Utah - #54 (70.5 avg opp)

Conference Quartile Strength (for 10-team leagues 3, 5/6, 8 - for 12-team leagues 3/4, 6/7, 9/10 - for 14-team leagues 4, 7/8, 11):
Big XII - 83.2 --- 82.1 --- 73.1
SEC - 90.9 --- 76.8 --- 72.9
Big Ten - 90.6 --- 76.4 --- 67.7
PAC 12 - 82.9 --- 75.1 --- 69.6
ACC - 73.7 -- 71.5 --- 69.5
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FearlessF

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2019, 09:53:49 PM »
the Utes aren't getting in if the Boomers win

too much helmet to overcome
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utee94

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2019, 10:07:35 PM »

the Utes aren't getting in if the Boomers win

too much helmet to overcome
Yup.

B12 was a tough conference this year no doubt.  It's just not sexy to talk about how strong Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, or Iowa State might be.

But if OU beats Baylor, it won't be SOS or relative conference strength that puts the Sooners into the CFP.  Like Fearless said, it'll be the helmet.

Disney paid $6 billion for the CFP.  Their Selection Committee knows that OU turns on a lot more TV sets than Utah does.  Just that simple.

BrownCounty

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2019, 08:22:56 AM »
the Utes aren't getting in if the Boomers win

Nor should the Utes get in if Baylor wins.  After all, Baylor will have beaten the mighty Boomers.

But moreover, compare some of the above data, Baylor vs. Utes.

PAC 12 shouldn't be getting in either way.  Baylor would manhandle Utah.  People vote is tainting this - computer vote would go with Baylor every time, especially with a defeat of OU.

utee94

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2019, 08:25:20 AM »
Utah's defense appears to be legitimately good.  I think a Baylor/Utah game would be a pretty low-scoring battle. 

BrownCounty

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2019, 08:27:26 AM »

I really hope we don't have to watch Clemson/LSU mudstomp Utah in the 1st round.  Oh, the humanity.

utee94

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2019, 08:33:09 AM »
I'm not sure Clemson is capable of mud-stomping ANY good teams, so even if they match up against Utah, you'll still get your wish.

This year's Clemson team is NOT last year's Clemson team. The ACC is about as unwatchable as any football I've ever seen.  Texas 5-A high school playoff football is played at a higher level than the ACC.

Cincydawg

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2019, 08:34:12 AM »
Which conference is stronger?

One with 4 highly ranked teams, 2 OK teams, and 6 pretty bad teams, or

One with 1 highly ranked team, 9 OK teams, and 2 bad teams?


FearlessF

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2019, 12:50:49 PM »
I really hope we don't have to watch Clemson/LSU mudstomp Utah in the 1st round.  Oh, the humanity.
wouldn't it likely be the Buckeyes with the #1 seed

are you saying you'd rather the Sooners or Baylor Bears get mudstomped?
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CWSooner

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2019, 01:25:38 PM »
Which conference is stronger?

One with 4 highly ranked teams, 2 OK teams, and 6 pretty bad teams, or

One with 1 highly ranked team, 9 OK teams, and 2 bad teams?
What aspect of strength are we dealing with?  How hard it is for a team to negotiate its own conference schedule, or how tough an opponent the mediam team from that conference would be?

You've got two 12-team, hence two-divisions, with CCGs, conferences here.  That changes the consideration from a 10-team conference with a round-robin schedule and a CCG involving the top two teams.

Considering the examples you offered, they are probably going to be rated about the same if "mean strength" is the metric.  But they present different problems to teams trying to work their way through their schedules.
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BrownCounty

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2019, 04:13:05 PM »
wouldn't it likely be the Buckeyes with the #1 seed

If Ohio St. draws LSU or Clemson in the 1st round, they'll be gone.

longhorn320

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2019, 05:21:23 PM »
If Ohio St. draws LSU or Clemson in the 1st round, they'll be gone.
I agree concerning LSU but Clemson Im not so sure about
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Cincydawg

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2019, 05:24:56 PM »
I think Ohio State is the most complete team out there.  I think having a mobile QB gets even more important when you face elite level opponents.  He can extend plays 2-3-4 times a game and turn an 8 yard loss into a potential gain.  Even Trevor Lawrence does this some.

CWSooner

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Re: Conference Strength Rankings?
« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2019, 07:19:40 PM »
I think Ohio State is the most complete team out there.  I think having a mobile QB gets even more important when you face elite level opponents.  He can extend plays 2-3-4 times a game and turn an 8 yard loss into a potential gain.  Even Trevor Lawrence does this some.
That's what I'm thinking too.  Ohio State seems to have an offense as good as anybody's, plus the best defense of any teams who are likely to join the Buckeyes on the CFP.
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