Neither are getting in. PSU is probably in 'better' shape, but they'd need epic meltdowns by ND and Syracuse today, a L'ville loss tomorrow, and losses by Okie St (vs OU), Baylor (vs WVU) and Texas (vs ISU) at the min to possibly back in.
Does it help or hurt Penn State that all of their good wins came against Ohio State? Conversely, does it help or hurt Ohio State that all of their bad losses came against Penn State?
I mean both questions as compared to having the same record but with different opponents?
By RPI, Penn State's three best wins (by far*) are:
- At #21 Ohio State
- Vs #21 Ohio State (neutral court)
- Vs #21 Ohio State
Ohio State's three worst losses (by far^) are:
- Vs #80 Penn State
- Vs #80 Penn State (neutral court)
- At #80 Penn State
Hypothetically, if Penn State had won the home game over Ohio State but lost the other two but also won:
- At #15 Michigan State, and
- Vs #23 aTm (neutral court)
Would that be better, worse, or about the same for PSU's NCAA chances? It would have little or no impact on their RPI.
Similarly, hypothetically, if Ohio State had won the home and neutral court games over Penn State but also lost:
- Vs #72 Stanford (neutral court), and
- Vs #92 William&Mary
Would that be better, worse, or about the same for tOSU's NCAA seed? It would have little or no impact on their RPI.
In considering this question please ignore the impact that these changes would have had on other games (ie, PSU not playing PU if they lost to tOSU in the BTT and both PSU and tOSU having different later round opponents if they won/lost preseason tournament games against aTm and Stanford. I'm simply asking how we think the committee will view the three wins / three losses. I could make a reasonable argument either way and I'm curious how the committee will view it.
*After the THREE wins over #21 tOSU, PSU's next best RPI wins were:
- Over #63 Nebraska at home.
- Over #70 Maryland at home.
- Over #95 Montana at home.
^After the THREE losses to #80 PSU, tOSU's next worst RPI losses were:
- To #45 Butler on a neutral court.
- To #30 Gonzaga on a neutral court.
- To #13 Michigan on the road.