I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts on the bubble. Here are mine:
Locks:
Need to win BTT:
Possible Bubble Teams:
13-5/22-9 Nebraska:
The Cornhusker's went 8-1 in their last nine and have a couple of close calls (OT loss at PSU, one point loss to Kansas) but their loss at Illinois (the 1 in their 8-1 finish) is problematic as is their overall weak B1G schedule (MSU, PU, tOSU, M, and UMD only once each). If they go one-and-done in the BTT I think that they would need a historically weak bubble to sneak in. However, their first opponent is likely to be a tournament-bound Wolverine squad and if Nebraska beats Michigan I think they have a very good chance to get in even with a loss the next day, especially if the loss is a "good loss" to Michigan State.
9-9/19-12 Penn State:
Only six teams have ever received at-large bids with 14 losses but making it with 13 losses it not unusual. Penn State, however, has several problems. First, their two wins over Ohio State are quite possibly their only wins over tournament teams. Second, they have too many bad losses. PSU's sub-100 RPI losses:
- @ #158 NU
- vs #148 MN
- vs #121 UW
- @ #110 IU
In addition they have mid-range losses @ #58 UNL, @ #64 UMD, and vs #65 Rider. They desperately need more quality wins to make up for the bad losses.
Penn State obviously has to beat Northwestern on Thursday and Ohio State on Friday. Even then, I don't think that 2-1 in the BTT and a final record of 21-13 would be enough so I think they need to make the B1GCG. That probably means that they need to beat Purdue on Saturday. 22-13 with BTT wins over NU, tOSU, and PU might get them there.
8-10/19-12 Maryland:
The Terps have a much better RPI and better computer rankings in general than PSU. Part of that is their slew of near misses. It is crazy that they have 12 losses and eight of them were by eight or less points. Nonetheless, Maryland doesn't have as many bad losses as PSU but they also don't have two wins over tournament teams. At this point Maryland's only win over a likely tournament team is their win over Butler way back in November. That and their sub .500 B1G record may mean that they are already in "need to win BTT" territory. At a minimum they need to make the CG on Sunday. That would require wins over Wisconsin (Thursday) and Michigan State (Friday). Then they would need to win the semi-final on Saturday against Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, or Iowa. If they did all that then lost in the CG they still might miss the NCAA tournament at 22-13.