~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts on the bubble.  Here are mine:

Locks:

• MSU
• tOSU
• PU
• M

Need to win BTT:

• RU
• IA
• IL
• MN
• NU
• UW
• IU

Possible Bubble Teams:
13-5/22-9 Nebraska:
The Cornhusker's went 8-1 in their last nine and have a couple of close calls (OT loss at PSU, one point loss to Kansas) but their loss at Illinois (the 1 in their 8-1 finish) is problematic as is their overall weak B1G schedule (MSU, PU, tOSU, M, and UMD only once each).  If they go one-and-done in the BTT I think that they would need a historically weak bubble to sneak in.  However, their first opponent is likely to be a tournament-bound Wolverine squad and if Nebraska beats Michigan I think they have a very good chance to get in even with a loss the next day, especially if the loss is a "good loss" to Michigan State.  

9-9/19-12 Penn State:
Only six teams have ever received at-large bids with 14 losses but making it with 13 losses it not unusual.  Penn State, however, has several problems.  First, their two wins over Ohio State are quite possibly their only wins over tournament teams.  Second, they have too many bad losses.  PSU's sub-100 RPI losses:

• @ #158 NU
• vs #148 MN
• vs #121 UW
• @ #110 IU

In addition they have mid-range losses @ #58 UNL, @ #64 UMD, and vs #65 Rider.  They desperately need more quality wins to make up for the bad losses.  

Penn State obviously has to beat Northwestern on Thursday and Ohio State on Friday.  Even then, I don't think that 2-1 in the BTT and a final record of 21-13 would be enough so I think they need to make the B1GCG.  That probably means that they need to beat Purdue on Saturday.  22-13 with BTT wins over NU, tOSU, and PU might get them there.  

8-10/19-12 Maryland:
The Terps have a much better RPI and better computer rankings in general than PSU.  Part of that is their slew of near misses.  It is crazy that they have 12 losses and eight of them were by eight or less points.  Nonetheless, Maryland doesn't have as many bad losses as PSU but they also don't have two wins over tournament teams.  At this point Maryland's only win over a likely tournament team is their win over Butler way back in November.  That and their sub .500 B1G record may mean that they are already in "need to win BTT" territory.  At a minimum they need to make the CG on Sunday.  That would require wins over Wisconsin (Thursday) and Michigan State (Friday).  Then they would need to win the semi-final on Saturday against Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, or Iowa.  If they did all that then lost in the CG they still might miss the NCAA tournament at 22-13.  

[JerseyTerrapin]

Honestly, I don't think Maryland is worthy of a tournament berth even if they made it to the finals.  And I don't think they'd get a berth if they did somehow get that far.

At some point I think losses are losses, no matter how small...  

[PSUinNC]

I think PSU is a 'needs to win tourney' team at this point.  

[HailHailMSP]

Nebraska needs to knock off Michigan and Michigan State back to back. Beyond that it’s tough to see them getting in, which is unfortunate because I think they could do damage in the first weekend.

[FearlessF]

I think the Huskers could possibly get in with a win over Michigan and a close loss to MSU, but only with some help.  A few bubble teams ahead of them lose games

long shot, that road loss to Illinois hurt

beating Michigan and Michigan state would get them in with  24 wins, finishing very strong

upsets would not help, beating Illinois and/or Maryland would force the Skers to beat Purdue or OSU to get in

[PSUinNC]

I think the Huskers are basically in a play-in game on Friday.  Win and in.  Lose and NIT.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I think the Huskers are basically in a play-in game on Friday.  Win and in.  Lose and NIT.  

It might depend on who they play.  If Michigan gets upset on Thursday the Huskers might need more than just a win over a non-tournament Illinois or Iowa team.  

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW:
I'm going to the BTT at MSG in NYC but I'll probably only be attending sessions in which Ohio State plays.  

We are leaving early Friday morning and figure to make it to NYC in time to drop our luggage at a hotel and maybe grab a bite to eat before the 6:30 session on Friday evening:

• 6:30pm tOSU vs NU/PSU
• ~9pm PU vs IU/MN/RU

We will miss the early Friday games travelling.  

Assuming that Ohio State wins on Friday we'll go to the Saturday session:

• 2pm MSU/UMD/UW vs UNL/M/IA/IL
• 4:30pm tOSU vs PU/IU/MN/RU

Then if Ohio State wins on Saturday we'll go to the CG on Sunday:

• 4:30pm tOSU vs MSU/UNL/M/UMD/UW/IL/IA

I'd like to stay for the CG either way but NYC is about an eight hour drive for me so if my Buckeyes are out I'll be on the road heading home during the CG.  

[msufan23]

Big ten tourney. You guys wanna do the fantasy draft/game we normally do?

[medinabuckeye1]

Big ten tourney. You guys wanna do the fantasy draft/game we normally do?

ELA, you doing it?

[ELA]

ELA, you doing it?

I don't think I've done that in like 5 years

[betarhoalphadelta]

Right now Lunardi has both MSU and Purdue as 2-seeds.

What's the path to a 1? I assume that if the teams above us all hold serve and win their conference tournaments, I'm not sure either team manages it. But I can't imagine that all 4 current 1 seeds will do so.

MSU: They will likely face Maryland or Wisconsin, which won't add much. Then most likely face Michigan or Northwestern in the semis, and either is a solid win. Finally the odds are they'd play OSU or Purdue, and if they won the BTT they'd have gotten a pretty good win there.

I think MSU could probably get to a 1, winning the BTT, even if upsets occurred and they ended up with an easy path of, say, Wisconsin, Iowa, and then Penn State. At 31-3, they're pretty much a 1 IMHO regardless of how they get there.

Purdue: Purdue, currently at 26-5, has it harder. I think Purdue has to win the BTT, beating MSU in the process, to get a 1. I think wins over IU and OSU wouldn't quite get there if they ended up facing, say, Nebraska in the final. I think if they beat Minnesota and PSU but then faced [and beat] MSU, they have probably earned a 1. If they face IU, OSU, and MSU, and win all three, I think they're definitely a 1.

What do you guys think?

[Entropy]

IMO.. UNL has to win out to get in.   For whatever reason, beating PSU doesn't help as much as say someone beating LSU this year.  I guess I'm not enough of a basketball expert to understand why teams with winning records in one conference are better wins than others, but this year, the ACC, SEC and Big12 are getting a lot of credit for wins over teams that don't appear any different than say PSU or UNL.  

[ELA]

Right now Lunardi has both MSU and Purdue as 2-seeds.

What's the path to a 1? I assume that if the teams above us all hold serve and win their conference tournaments, I'm not sure either team manages it. But I can't imagine that all 4 current 1 seeds will do so.

MSU: They will likely face Maryland or Wisconsin, which won't add much. Then most likely face Michigan or Northwestern in the semis, and either is a solid win. Finally the odds are they'd play OSU or Purdue, and if they won the BTT they'd have gotten a pretty good win there.

I think MSU could probably get to a 1, winning the BTT, even if upsets occurred and they ended up with an easy path of, say, Wisconsin, Iowa, and then Penn State. At 31-3, they're pretty much a 1 IMHO regardless of how they get there.

Purdue: Purdue, currently at 26-5, has it harder. I think Purdue has to win the BTT, beating MSU in the process, to get a 1. I think wins over IU and OSU wouldn't quite get there if they ended up facing, say, Nebraska in the final. I think if they beat Minnesota and PSU but then faced [and beat] MSU, they have probably earned a 1. If they face IU, OSU, and MSU, and win all three, I think they're definitely a 1.

What do you guys think?

Well either Villanova or Xavier has to lose.  Then he has Virginia as a 1, and both Duke and UNC as 2s.  So only one of them can win it.  I think ideally Virginia just wins it, because they probably still get a 1 anyway, and that would knock Duke or UNC out.
I think if Virginia wins, all MSU has to do is win it, Purdue probably has to beat OSU and MSU in the process of winning it.
If it's Duke or UNC out of the ACC, it gets tougher, although I'm struggling to see how UNC would get a 1 seed over MSU, but I bet they would.