~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[PSUinNC]

Ya, I think PSU's only hope now is to win out and get to the tourney finals.  Man did they ever miss a chance last night.  Would have been nice if Mike Watkins would have, you know, played a bit.  

I get why he was in at the end there, but man if there was one guy on the entire squad you didn't want taking those free throws, it was Mike Watkins.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

For the first time all season I'm dreading Medina's Monday Morning Breakdown of the most likely scenarios. 

No way the Spartans drop one of these final two. 

[Entropy]

NIT bound, imo.   Can't lose to Illinois this year and expect to make it as a bubble team.

[847badgerfan]

I'm really hoping UW can beat Minnie tonight. A win would clinch a higher conference rank for UW than Minnie could possibly attain. Of course, this is important. Finishing higher than Minnie is always a goal - even in a historically down season like this one.

[mcwterps1]

Here we go again.

NW players elbowing and tackling Maryland players and nothing.

We breathe on someone and the whistle blows.

F'ing BS

After I say this  they finally get that little shit Lindsey who's been swinging on Cowan all night.

Twice now...finally. 

And then damn if Cowan didn't do it and not get called... SMH

Should have been called on Cowan. 

[bayareabadger]

I'm really hoping UW can beat Minnie tonight. A win would clinch a higher conference rank for UW than Minnie could possibly attain. Of course, this is important. Finishing higher than Minnie is always a goal - even in a historically down season like this one.

UW did it. Not easy at all, but they did it. 
I don't know that a nice finish means a ton, bit it is still nice. 

[847badgerfan]

Something to build on for next season. It's great that the kids don't quit. There's really not much more to be said.

[jhetfield99]

Def must say Wisc did not pack it in this year.  Good to see for the group and like you said something to build to next year after a rough season. 
1 request, that I'm sure another fanbase on here can endorse, any chance they can shoot like 80% in Happ's last game and keep the good mojo going one more time?

[847badgerfan]

Happ's last game?

It would be a major mistake for him to try the NBA. He's not there yet.

Now.. that said, I could see a grad transfer (not sure where he stands, but he did redshirt) if he believes he can have a better chance to win elsewhere. There is some help coming for next season. It's all about whether or not he loves where he is playing and loves his teammates.

[medinabuckeye1]

In a week I've gone from "well, unless OSU pulls off a crazy comeback in Mackey, MSU's Big 10 title hopes probably die tonight," to "if UM can win at home over OSU, MSU controls it's own destiny to be sole Big Ten champs, and has room for error now to at least be co-champs."

It is amazing how much the situation improved for the Spartans in not much over a week.  Late in the PU/tOSU game it looked like Purdue would win thus keeping a two-game lead on the Spartans.  Instead, Ohio State won.  Then MSU beat Purdue and for good measure Purdue lost again in their next game all while Ohio State had a two game skid of their own.  Now the Spartans control their own destiny for an outright Championship and their last two games are against:

• 3-12 Illinois
• 6-10 Wisconsin

[medinabuckeye1]

Maybe there is another explanation that makes sense:
Maybe Penn State has just improved and Ohio State was just unlucky enough to get them twice late in the season. On January 20 Penn State lost their second straight, third in four, and fourth in six, and fifth in eight and just looked awful. Since then they are 6-1 with the only loss being a reasonably close (8 points) "good" loss in East Lansing. The six wins have included the two against Ohio State, a win over Maryland, and blowout wins over RU, IA, and IL. Even if you ignore the two PSU/tOSU games and just look at the other five of Penn State's last seven games they still look easily like a tournament team over that stretch.

Penn State very nearly winning in West Lafayette makes this theory seem a lot more plausible.  

[medinabuckeye1]

For the first time all season I'm dreading Medina's Monday Morning Breakdown of the most likely scenarios.

No way the Spartans drop one of these final two.

Before I update the tier projections, a few things have been clinched:
The Spartans, Buckeyes, and Boilermakers have clinched the top three seeds in the BTT.  Nebraska and/or Michigan could end up tied with Purdue and/or Ohio State but it wouldn't matter.  Michigan and Nebraska would lose the tiebreakers.  
The race for the final double-bye (#4 seed) is certainly interesting:

• Nebraska has the inside track because they would win a tie with Michigan (no game in Ann Arbor).  
• Michigan needs at least one more win than Nebraska.  
• Penn State and Indiana are still mathematically alive to at least tie for fourth because they could finish 11-7 but it would require winning out and Nebraska losing out and Michigan losing out.  

[medinabuckeye1]

There were three upsets over the weekend (IU@IA, ILvUNL, UMD@NU) so the projections have changed:

• 16-2/28-3 Michigan State
• 15-3/24-7 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over PU, won in W. Lafayette)
• 15-3/26-5 Purdue
• 13-5/22-9 Nebraska
• 11-7/22-9 Michigan
• 10-8/20-11 Penn State
• 9-9/16-14 Indiana (wins tiebreaker over UMD, no game in College Park)
• 9-9/20-11 Maryland
• 7-11/16-15 Northwestern
• 6-12/13-18 Wisconsin
• 4-14/15-16 Minnesota (wins H2H2H tiebreaker over RU and IA, 2-1)
• 4-14/14-17 Rutgers (second in H2H2H tiebreaker with MN and IA, 1-1)
• 4-14/13-18 Iowa (last in H2H2H tiebreaker with MN and RU, 1-2)
• 3-15/13-18 Illinois

That would result in the following match-ups in the BTT at MSG in NYC:
Wednesday, February 28:

• #11 Minnesota vs #14 Illinois, 8pm, BTN
• #12 Rutgers vs #13 Iowa, 5:30pm, BTN

Thursday, March 1:

• #5 Michigan vs RU/IA, 2:30pm, BTN
• #6 Penn State vs MN/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Indiana vs #10 Wisconsin, 6:30pm, BTN
• #8 Maryland vs #9 Northwestern, noon, BTN

Friday, March 2:

• #1 Michigan State vs UMD/NU, noon, BTN
• #2 Ohio State vs IU/UW, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Purdue vs PSU/MN/IL, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Nebraska vs M/RU/IA, 2:30pm, BTN

Saturday, March 3:

• MSU/UMD/NU vs UNL/M/RU/IA, 2pm, CBS
• tOSU/IU/UW vs PU/PSU/MN/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

Sunday, March 4:

• MSU/UMD/NU/UNL/M/RU/IA vs tOSU/IU/UW/PU/PSU/MN/IL, 4:30pm, CBS

Note to Brutus:
A match-up between the Buckeyes and Wolverines before the B1GCG is, at this point, unlikely.  Ways that it could happen:

• If MSU drops a game then (all else as projected) the Buckeyes would get the #1 seed and could meet the #5 Wolverines in the early semi-final on Saturday.  
• If Penn State wins out then (all else as projected) Michigan would drop to the #6 seed.  Then, the Buckeyes and Wolverines could meet in the late semi-final on Saturday.  
• If Penn State wins out and Ohio State drops a game then (all else as projected) Michigan would drop to the #6 seed and Ohio State would drop to the #3 seed.  Then the Buckeyes and Wolverines could meet in the 9pm game on Friday.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Bubble Watch:
Michigan 11-5/22-7:  The Wolverines may have clinched a berth with their win over Ohio State.  Their last two are both quality opponents (#77 PSU and #58 UMD).  Both of their last two games are on the road which is a blessing and a curse.  It is a blessing because losses wouldn't be all that bad but it is a curse because losses aren't all that unlikely.  I frankly think that Michigan would probably get in even if they lost out but it would be close finishing on three-straight losses including a bad loss in the BTT.  I think that Michigan would be safe with one more win.  

Nebraska 11-5/20-9: The Cornhuskers' loss this weekend at Illinois was bad, really bad and potentially fatal.  A bad loss can be overcome, of course, but it takes quality wins to overcome a bad loss and Nebraska has a critical shortage of quality wins.  They are just 3-8 against the RPI top-100 with wins:

• vs #30 Michigan
• vs #58 Maryland
• vs #92 Boston College

and losses:

• vs #6 Kansas
• @ #11 Purdue
• @ #14 MSU
• @ #20 tOSU
• @ #35 Creighton
• vs #63 UCF (neutral court)
• @ #68 St. John's
• @ #77 Penn State

Their last two are at home against Indiana and a suddenly red hot Penn State.  

Penn State 9-7/19-10:  The Nittany Lions would be in a lot better shape if they could have pulled off the win in West Lafayette.  They still have a chance.  Their last two games are vsM and atUNL so they can pick up two quality wins before the BTT.  Adding those to their home wins over UNL and UMD and their pair of wins over the Buckeyes would put Penn State in decent position heading into the BTT.  

Maryland 8-9/19-11:  The Terps only have one game left (vM) but it would be a quality win if they could get it.  They desperately need it.  As it stands now the Terps only have one win against the top 76 teams in the RPI and that was #39 Butler way back in November. A .500 record in a weak B1G isn't great but to Maryland's credit they had to play MSU, PU, M, PSU, and NU twice each.  This is probably the toughest slate in the B1G.  Obviously 9-9 isn't going to get them in without some wins in NYC, but it will at least get them close enough that it would be possible.